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Shearer still favourite to become Labour leader but odds drop

Mt Albert MP David Shearer is still considered by iPredict to be the favourite to win the mini-primary taking place for the Labour Party leadership.

The prediction market rates Mr Shearer’s chance of success at 68%, down slightly from 70% the week prior.

Mr Shearer is competing against David Cunliffe for the position.

Grant Robertson is assessed as 48% likely to be Labour’s new deputy leader after the Wellington Central MP tossed his hat into the ring earlier this week.

In contracts on cabinet appointment John Key is considered a near-certainty expected to retain his tourism portfolio (92% chance) and Judith Collins is widely tipped to pick up justice (90%).

Steven Joyce is expected to be a minister of everything with contracts being traded on his appointment to economic development (89%), associate finance (70%), energy and resources (45%), transport (41%) and science and innovation (23%).

More by Matt Nippert

Comments and questions
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http://waitakerenews.blogspot.com/2011_11_01_archive.html

Have a look at this analysis of how you can manipulate perception through I predict.

What are the odds on the godmother of the labour party being strongly influential in the outcome of this donkey race?
Is it not time the labour party ceased to given the title "The Opposition" ? It is competing in opposition. At present it is has the numbers to say it is the largest party on the other side of the house, but in reality it is the biggest loser, still choked full of minority whiners with barrows to push that are not popular with middle NZ.

This represents a real problem for Labour. Cunliffe is just too unpopular and would rate lower than Goff did in popularity stakes. Sheare would be far more popular with the public, but is he really up to the position? No - just the best with his hand up at present. The real leader will need to emerge before the next election.

What is wrong with Damien O'Connor. A mans man, honest, hard working, family man representing real working people - whoops that's the problem.

Something about rats deserting a sinking ship....

...rearanging the deck chairs on the Titanic!

They deserve all the grief they get for their deliberately deceitful underhand goings on. If they weren't already in bed with the Unions - I say they would fully deserve each other.

Parasitic individuals that will feed on each other for month's debating who will be the next "leader" self imploding in a fetid, seething mass of ego's vying for supremecy - I hope they all choke on it!

Go the Greens!