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Shearer won Super Thursday - iPredict

Many in the media gave the nod to the PM as the two major party leaders squared off with major speeches on Thursday.

Not so iPredict punters.

The online political market place still gives Labour the nod to win the next election. In fact, the party has gained.

For the next New Zealand general election, due in 2014, iPredict party vote forecasts are: National 40.1% (down from 40.6%), Labour 37.8% (up from 35.1%), Greens 9.5% (down from 9.6%), NZ First 5.2% (up from 5.1%), Conservative 2.7% (steady), Act 1.7% (steady), Maori Party 1.4% (steady), Mana Party 1.3% (steady), and UnitedFuture 0.7% (steady).

In electorate contests, the Maori Party is expected to win only win two electorate seats, and the Mana and Act parties one each, while the Green, New Zealand First, Conservative and UnitedFuture parties are not expected to win any seats.

Based on these results, Parliament would consist of: National 49 MPs, Labour 47 MPs, the Greens 12 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, the Maori, Act and the Mana Party 2 MPs each, UnitedFuture would have no MPs. There would be 120 MPs, requiring 61 to govern.

David Shearer’s Labour Party could form a Government with the support of the Greens, and one or more of the Maori Party, the Mana Party, or New Zealand First. Overall, there is a 57% probability Labour will form a Government after the next General Election, with a 42% probability David Shearer will be Prime Minister by 1 January 2015. 

Meanwhile, back in the present, a Roy Morgan poll shows National extending its solid lead.

Comments and questions

Key needs to get an effective action plan and start more action -perhaps a little less "smiling and waving"
Peter Martin

The Conservative Party is the one to watch. After only a month of existing, they managed to attract 2.7% of the voters. (60,000) For such a young party, that is nothing short of phenomenal.

I have heard they are planning a vigorous campaign, where they will release pamphlets via newspapers throughout the election year. Colin is currently touring the country- talking and meeting people. I look forward to having him (and maybe a couple of extras) in our Parliament come 2014.