Shell not spilling the good oil?

Far be it from your humble NBR correspondent to indulge in idle rumour-mongering, but in Taranaki the murmurs are as hard to avoid as the cowpats, and they’re just as sticky – Shell has more oil than it lets on.

Shell general manager Rob Jager is a sincere and likeable enough fellow, so what’s prompting such scurrilous scuttlebutt?

Well to industry insiders it all seems just a little too convenient that Shell’s total reserves in the area keep on "magically" expanding every time they have to re-evaluate them.

The revisions keep going up.

Have no doubt that Shell will be adhering to the very last letter of the law in informing the market but maybe perhaps have just the tiniest twinge of a twinkle of a doubt that it is also adhering as strictly to the spirit of the law. It also has shareholders to answer to after all.

Shell says the revisions are owing to increasing efficiency in measuring exactly what’s on tap, as the lifecycle of any given field progresses – as the tank gets emptier so to speak, it’s easier to see exactly what’s in it.

A perfectly reasonable explanation.

But there has been another explanation suggested to the NBR – that lower reserves estimates (Shell’s supply) have an effect on the other side of the demand equation – the price.

Cynicism from the oil industry? Hold the presses.