State of the nation speeches good for National, Greens – iPredict

John Key
David Cunliffe (TVNZ)
Metiria Turei

The latest report from Victoria University's political marketplace, iPredict, says state of the nation speeches by Prime Minister John Key and Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei have given their parties a small boost at the expense of Labour.

Mr Key used his speech to announce his so-called elite teacher plan, while Ms Turei launched a proposal to make schools community hubs.

Labour leader David Cunliffe announced intentions to pay families earning under $150,000 an extra $60 a week per child.

Labour’s forecast party vote for the election – now expected in September – has fallen nearly 1% since last week.

National is expected to win 43.06% of the party vote (up from 42.96% last week), Labour 33.17% (down from 34.07%) and the Green Party 9.59% (up from 9.29%).

iPredict says the Act party appears to have improved its chances of winning an electorate seat following a change in expectation in favour of Jamie Whtye and David Seymour to become leader and Epsom candidate for the party.

Dr Whyte has an 83% probability of being elected leader this Sunday and Mr Seymour has a 70% probability of being the party’s Epsom candidate

On current numbers, re-election to Parliament of NZ First would not provide enough support for a feasible Labour-led government and the probability of a National prime minister after the election is approaching 60%.

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2 Comments & Questions

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Sigh. It's not a poll.

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Don't you just love computer modelling it always seems to give the results already presumed in the software's writing. Your i-predict models are as legitimate as similar CO2 obsessed pseudo scientists predictions of climate doom.

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