The latest report from Victoria University's political marketplace, iPredict, says state of the nation speeches by Prime Minister John Key and Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei have given their parties a small boost at the expense of Labour.
Labour leader David Cunliffe announced intentions to pay families earning under $150,000 an extra $60 a week per child.
Labour’s forecast party vote for the election – now expected in September – has fallen nearly 1% since last week.
National is expected to win 43.06% of the party vote (up from 42.96% last week), Labour 33.17% (down from 34.07%) and the Green Party 9.59% (up from 9.29%).
iPredict says the Act party appears to have improved its chances of winning an electorate seat following a change in expectation in favour of Jamie Whtye and David Seymour to become leader and Epsom candidate for the party.
Dr Whyte has an 83% probability of being elected leader this Sunday and Mr Seymour has a 70% probability of being the party’s Epsom candidate
On current numbers, re-election to Parliament of NZ First would not provide enough support for a feasible Labour-led government and the probability of a National prime minister after the election is approaching 60%.