State of the nation speeches good for National, Greens – iPredict

John Key
David Cunliffe (TVNZ)
Metiria Turei

The latest report from Victoria University's political marketplace, iPredict, says state of the nation speeches by Prime Minister John Key and Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei have given their parties a small boost at the expense of Labour.

Mr Key used his speech to announce his so-called elite teacher plan, while Ms Turei launched a proposal to make schools community hubs.

Labour leader David Cunliffe announced intentions to pay families earning under $150,000 an extra $60 a week per child.

Labour’s forecast party vote for the election – now expected in September – has fallen nearly 1% since last week.

National is expected to win 43.06% of the party vote (up from 42.96% last week), Labour 33.17% (down from 34.07%) and the Green Party 9.59% (up from 9.29%).

iPredict says the Act party appears to have improved its chances of winning an electorate seat following a change in expectation in favour of Jamie Whtye and David Seymour to become leader and Epsom candidate for the party.

Dr Whyte has an 83% probability of being elected leader this Sunday and Mr Seymour has a 70% probability of being the party’s Epsom candidate

On current numbers, re-election to Parliament of NZ First would not provide enough support for a feasible Labour-led government and the probability of a National prime minister after the election is approaching 60%.

2 · Got a question about this story? Leave it in Comments & Questions below.

This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about MyNBR Tags

2 Comments & Questions

Commenter icon key: Subscriber Verified

Sigh. It's not a poll.

  • 0
  • 0

Don't you just love computer modelling it always seems to give the results already presumed in the software's writing. Your i-predict models are as legitimate as similar CO2 obsessed pseudo scientists predictions of climate doom.

  • 0
  • 0

Post New comment or question

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

NZ Market Snapshot


Sym Price Change
USD 0.6757 0.0008 0.12%
AUD 0.9385 0.0031 0.33%
EUR 0.6056 0.0032 0.53%
GBP 0.4619 -0.0043 -0.92%
HKD 5.2460 0.0030 0.06%
JPY 74.3220 0.4800 0.65%


Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1229.2 -19.340 2016-05-24T00:
Oil Brent 49.2 0.250 2016-05-24T00:
Oil Nymex 48.6 0.540 2016-05-24T00:
Silver Index 16.2 -0.170 2016-05-24T00:


Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 6873.8 6897.2 6872.7 0.36%
NASDAQ 4792.9 4866.0 4765.8 2.00%
DAX 9798.9 10077.6 9842.3 2.18%
DJI 17525.2 17742.6 17492.9 1.22%
FTSE 6136.4 6231.9 6136.4 1.35%
HKSE 19828.0 19870.2 19809.0 0.11%
NI225 16605.0 16605.0 16654.6 -0.94%