Subdued recovery to continue - Treasury
It's a beer, or maybe even a watered down shandy, of an economic recovery, rather than a champagne party.
The Treasury's latest monthly economic update says New Zealand's economic recovery will continue over the coming year, although it won't be much to write home about.
After a strong expansion in GDP in the third quarter last year, the Treasury now expects the fourth quarter figures – due for release on March 22 – to show GDP of around 0.6% for that period. That is down from the 0.9% officials predicted in the pre-election economic and fiscal update (PREFU).
The third quarter boost was mostly the Rugby World Cup lifting sales in retail and the hospitality industries, and that is expected to drop away.
Looking ahead, the main issues domestically are how much New Zealanders will maintain their savings habits, picked up over the past couple of years; the pace and scope of the Canterbury rebuild, and the impact the government's withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus over recent years will have on growth.
But the main risks are offshore.
"As the euro debt crisis drags on and other risks to the global economy increase, international agencies such as the IMF have revised down their forecasts and have also included large downside scenarios based on a deepening of the crisis….With high levels of uncertainty about the outlook, volatility in financial markets is likely to remain a feature of the coming year."
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Comments and questions2
Yep – a slow, snails pace is what will happen if we keep doing what we’ve always done and expect different results. Bold new initiatives should be tried!
How about trying to tap into public ideas on Growth / economic development – somewhere where thoughts and ideas can be shared – like here with the NBR comments?
My thinking for Auckland would be to create a marine reserve around Rangitoto and Motutapu Islands – similar to Goat Island. Imagine how strategic and important an asset that would be in 20 or 30 years time? 20lb snapper from Birkenhead wharf anyone?
The social and economic benefits will be huge – least of all, generating an area on Auckland’s front door step that will spill-over huge quantities of sustainable fish for recreational fishing, safeguarding this essential resource/sport/pass time for generations to come – whilst replenishing the Gulf in fish stocks.
At the same time, build a world class “marine / Eco University” on the island(s) as well as an authentic “Maori Village experience” for all the cruise liner tourists wanting something different, as we help them to willingly lighten their wallets. Keep the walk to the summit for free, but develop the islands into a learning / educational / cultural experience – maybe with cycle tracks all over the islands, kayaking around the islands etc, so a full day can be spent on the islands exploring, learning and most importantly generating employment and on-going revenue for the government and local Iwi – whilst creating and leaving an asset that keeps on producing for the Region and for our grandchildren’s grandchildren.
Who else has ideas to put forward?
A workmate has just done a tour of the North Island. She was disappointed that the vineyards around Gisborne were badly promoted.
Also one can go into a Cold Storage store in Singapore and see nothing from NZ but plenty imported from OZ. Enought said about relative effectivenesses in marketing.
Whatever is done has to be aggressively marketed.
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