Truckometer puts brakes on growth

Free audio stream, including stories that are padlocked on our site. Listen on any device, anywhere. Updated twice daily. The audio stream takes several seconds to start on Android devices.

Launch Radio player

ANZ’s two truckometer indices fell in September, signalling the potential for weakened economic activity through the first quarter of next year.

A 5.3% fall in the heavy traffic index took the indicator to its lowest level in more than a year and contrasts the gains of the previous two months.

The figure suggests the relatively strong growth from the first half of 2012 is unlikely to continue and predicts a negative GDP improvement for the third quarter.

The light traffic index fell 2.1% after recording a 1.8% rise in August and forecasts growth will continue to be slow in early 2013.

ANZ senior economist Sharon Zollner says the fall was expected.

“Some recoil from a strong first half was inevitable,” she says. “It didn’t surprise too much in that the 2.5% growth rate was simply not going to be sustainable.”

Ms Zollner says the economy is set to lose momentum fairly quickly, mainly because of a slowing in trade and an exchange rate sitting above $US0.80.

“Both indices are suggesting the third quarter will be weaker and possibly negative.”

The truckometer uses traffic volume data published by the New Zealand Transport Agency and matches the data from selected roads to GDP growth six months later.

It is designed to predict what economic activity will be like in six months.

Heavy trucks are seen as an indicator of current activity because a large proportion of freight is moved by road in New Zealand.

Light-vehicle traffic volume, meanwhile, predicts future growth because an increasing willingness to buy and drive a car can indicate consumer confidence.

The next ANZ truckometer release will be on November 13.

1 · Got a question about this story? Leave it in Comments & Questions below.

This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about MyNBR Tags

1 Comment & Question

Commenter icon key: Subscriber Verified

And yet Govt's and reserve bank's attention is focused on inflation!
Surely it should be on growth,or lack of!

  • 0
  • 0

Post New comment or question

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

NZ Market Snapshot


Sym Price Change
USD 0.7227 -0.0014 -0.19%
AUD 0.9364 0.0010 0.11%
EUR 0.6644 -0.0011 -0.17%
GBP 0.4697 -0.0007 -0.15%
HKD 5.6035 -0.0090 -0.16%
JPY 89.3720 0.3010 0.34%


Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1186.8 -18.680 2015-05-26T00:
Oil Brent 64.3 -1.590 2015-05-26T00:
Oil Nymex 58.0 -1.620 2015-05-26T00:
Silver Index 16.7 -0.305 2015-05-26T00:


Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 5795.9 5795.9 5795.9 -0.65%
NASDAQ 5047.9 5071.1 5032.8 0.60%
DAX 11647.0 11713.7 11625.1 0.75%
DJI 18045.1 18161.7 18041.5 0.52%
FTSE 6949.0 7034.5 6949.0 1.10%
HKSE 28214.7 28214.7 28249.9 -0.60%
NI225 20380.6 20513.2 20437.5 0.17%