US Presidential election: where gamblers are putting their cash

Mitt Romney: not favoured

Nationwide polls have the US Presidential race a statistical dead heat - but with Obama a nose ahead in Ohio and a number of battleground states.

The punters diverge from the pollsters, with most seeing an easy win for the incumbent.

Here, the Victoria University-backed iPredict.co.nz has slug slow this afternoon. Administrator Oliver Ibbetson (with Exceltium, which manages the service) pointed to more than 7000 trades on the site's contract on a Democratic candidate (that is, Obama), winning the election.

Contracts for the President to win were down 10.23% to $0.72 mid-afternoon - meaning traders give Obama a 72% chance of winning (if he does hold the White House, the contract pays out at $1. If he loses, it pays $0).

Click to zoom.

Conversely, iPredict punters give Romeny a 29.6% chance of winning, with his contracts trading on a much lower volume.

In the US, IEM (the Iowa Electronic Markets) sits in a similar space to iPredict. That is, it's run by a university (the University of Iowa's Business School) but members bet with real money.

IEM punters were buying winner-take-all Obama contracts at $0.73 this afternoon, meaning they give the President a 73% chance of winning (like iPredict, it pays out at $1 if the President wins, $0 if he loses).

On October 29, there were 5300 trades on the contract.

Intrade - the slickest US electronic market and the one that frequently gets name-checked by the likes of the The Wall Street Journal - has Obama at 64.9% (meaning "shares" in an Obama win cost $US6.49) and Romney at 35.1% late Monday NZ time.

Click to zoom.

On more conventional gambling sites, Obama is also heavily favoured.

Pinnacle Sports is paying $US1.28 for an Obama win and $US4.15 for Romney.

Betfair.com has Obama at $US1.28, and Romney at $US4.40.

Election results will come through Wednesday afternoon NZ time.


Got a question about this story? Leave it in Comments & Questions below.

This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about MyNBR Tags

Comments & Questions

Commenter icon key: Subscriber Verified

Post New comment or question

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.6754 0.0046 0.69%
AUD 0.9308 -0.0012 -0.13%
EUR 0.6042 0.0028 0.47%
GBP 0.4611 0.0027 0.59%
HKD 5.2453 0.0356 0.68%
JPY 75.0780 0.6910 0.93%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1212.7 -6.530 2016-05-27T00:
Oil Brent 50.0 0.550 2016-05-27T00:
Oil Nymex 49.3 -0.080 2016-05-27T00:
Silver Index 16.3 -0.070 2016-05-27T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 7023.3 7046.8 7019.6 0.28%
NASDAQ 4938.5 4951.1 4933.5 0.26%
DAX 10356.1 10365.2 10333.2 -0.09%
DJI 17891.5 17899.2 17873.2 -0.03%
FTSE 6270.8 6290.1 6270.8 -0.10%
HKSE 20617.3 20974.7 20629.4 0.90%
NI225 17029.5 17251.4 17068.0 0.98%
ASX 5408.0 5408.0 5408.0 -0.54%