US Presidential election: where gamblers are putting their cash

Mitt Romney: not favoured

Nationwide polls have the US Presidential race a statistical dead heat - but with Obama a nose ahead in Ohio and a number of battleground states.

The punters diverge from the pollsters, with most seeing an easy win for the incumbent.

Here, the Victoria University-backed iPredict.co.nz has slug slow this afternoon. Administrator Oliver Ibbetson (with Exceltium, which manages the service) pointed to more than 7000 trades on the site's contract on a Democratic candidate (that is, Obama), winning the election.

Contracts for the President to win were down 10.23% to $0.72 mid-afternoon - meaning traders give Obama a 72% chance of winning (if he does hold the White House, the contract pays out at $1. If he loses, it pays $0).

Click to zoom.

Conversely, iPredict punters give Romeny a 29.6% chance of winning, with his contracts trading on a much lower volume.

In the US, IEM (the Iowa Electronic Markets) sits in a similar space to iPredict. That is, it's run by a university (the University of Iowa's Business School) but members bet with real money.

IEM punters were buying winner-take-all Obama contracts at $0.73 this afternoon, meaning they give the President a 73% chance of winning (like iPredict, it pays out at $1 if the President wins, $0 if he loses).

On October 29, there were 5300 trades on the contract.

Intrade - the slickest US electronic market and the one that frequently gets name-checked by the likes of the The Wall Street Journal - has Obama at 64.9% (meaning "shares" in an Obama win cost $US6.49) and Romney at 35.1% late Monday NZ time.

Click to zoom.

On more conventional gambling sites, Obama is also heavily favoured.

Pinnacle Sports is paying $US1.28 for an Obama win and $US4.15 for Romney.

Betfair.com has Obama at $US1.28, and Romney at $US4.40.

Election results will come through Wednesday afternoon NZ time.

This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about My Tags

Comment & Question

Commenter icon key: Subscriber Verified

Post New comment or question

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.7878 -0.0004 -0.05%
AUD 0.9091 0.0005 0.06%
EUR 0.6356 -0.0003 -0.05%
GBP 0.5032 0.0001 0.02%
HKD 6.1123 -0.0013 -0.02%
JPY 92.8410 0.0020 0.00%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1201.1 7.660 2014-11-21T00:
Oil Brent 78.6 -0.120 2014-11-21T00:
Oil Nymex 76.5 0.690 2014-11-21T00:
Silver Index 16.4 0.260 2014-11-21T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 5526.9 5526.9 5526.9 -0.56%
NASDAQ 4751.0 4751.6 4701.9 0.24%
DAX 9521.2 9736.1 9484.0 2.62%
DJI 17721.0 17894.8 17719.0 0.51%
FTSE 6678.9 6773.1 6678.9 1.08%
HKSE 23353.7 23508.0 23349.6 0.37%
NI225 17285.7 17381.6 17300.9 0.33%