Warm, flat beer rather than champagne for the economy

Keep the champagne - or the Chardon - on ice for a bit. The latest New Zealand Institute of Economic Research survey of economic forecasts show a deteriorating medium term outlook.

The average outlook for the current financial year has taken a dive since the last survey three months ago – down from minus 0.6% GDP growth to minus 1.6% for the year to March 2010.

There is a barely significant improvement in expectations for longer term: GDP is now expected to grow 2.8% in the year to March 2011, up from 2.7% three months ago.

And – no surprise here – economists are a lot less sure than they were that the exchange rate is going to settle down and stop behaving like it has ants in its pants.

The average consensus forecast is for a 6% decline in the 2009/10 year, but the range is wide at -16% to +4%.

The job outlook – with employment being even more of a lagging indicator in this recession than normally – is bleak - consensus forecasts suggest around 60,000 job losses over the next year and subdued wage inflation over the next two years.

Allied to that is a slump in the outlook for private consumption – a decrease of 0.7% is anticipated over the next year, compared to an expected minor increase of 0.1% three months ago.

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NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.7452 -0.0011 -0.15%
AUD 0.9419 0.0011 0.12%
EUR 0.6642 -0.0005 -0.08%
GBP 0.4962 -0.0001 -0.02%
HKD 5.7807 0.0008 0.01%
JPY 87.7610 -0.0020 -0.00%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1292.6 -7.090 2015-01-23T00:
Oil Brent 49.9 0.320 2015-01-23T00:
Oil Nymex 45.6 -0.820 2015-01-23T00:
Silver Index 18.3 -0.060 2015-01-23T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 5647.1 5713.3 5711.9 -0.64%
NASDAQ 4748.2 4771.2 4750.4 0.16%
DAX 10503.3 10704.3 10435.6 2.05%
DJI 17812.5 17812.5 17814.0 -0.79%
FTSE 6796.6 6841.7 6796.6 0.53%
HKSE 24807.4 24896.2 24522.6 1.34%
NI225 17520.6 17532.1 17329.0 1.05%