Free audio stream, including stories that are padlocked on our site. Listen on any device, anywhere. Updated twice daily. The audio stream takes several seconds to start on Android devices.Launch Radio player
Keep the champagne - or the Chardon - on ice for a bit. The latest New Zealand Institute of Economic Research survey of economic forecasts show a deteriorating medium term outlook.
The average outlook for the current financial year has taken a dive since the last survey three months ago – down from minus 0.6% GDP growth to minus 1.6% for the year to March 2010.
There is a barely significant improvement in expectations for longer term: GDP is now expected to grow 2.8% in the year to March 2011, up from 2.7% three months ago.
And – no surprise here – economists are a lot less sure than they were that the exchange rate is going to settle down and stop behaving like it has ants in its pants.
The average consensus forecast is for a 6% decline in the 2009/10 year, but the range is wide at -16% to +4%.
The job outlook – with employment being even more of a lagging indicator in this recession than normally – is bleak - consensus forecasts suggest around 60,000 job losses over the next year and subdued wage inflation over the next two years.
Allied to that is a slump in the outlook for private consumption – a decrease of 0.7% is anticipated over the next year, compared to an expected minor increase of 0.1% three months ago.
This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about MyNBR Tags
- NZ could reap $190M/year benefit becoming first nation to allow beyond-line-of-sight drones
- Central Bank starts consulting on tougher rules for property investors
- Greens scream, Tech Liberty raises practical concerns as Customs asks for right to demand passwords
- Country’s biggest apartment project funded from China
- John Key rejects Snowden docs as 'outdated'