What's behind National's surge, and the Green's record low

David Farrar

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll (on Curiablog) shows a large change since their last poll in October.

National is up 6% to 51% and the Greens have dropped 5% to 8%. This is the (equal) highest National has polled since the election and the lowest the Greens have polled.

Labour have stayed constant at 34%. Now voters do not tend to defect from the Greens to National. Almost certainly what has happened is National has picked up 5% to 6% off Labour, while Labour has picked up 5% from the Greens. This makes sense, as their giving welfare to families earning up to $150,000 will appeal to hard left voters, but be a total turn off for centrist voters.

Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was.

One should never jump to a conclusion off one poll. However the four polls done in February average out at 49% for National, 32% Labour and 10% Greens. That is a 7% lead for National, which is a huge contrast to January when National was 2% behind Labour and Greens combined.

It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.

The challenge for National is to resist arrogance or complacency. A 7% lead can disappear, and under MMP no election is safe.

Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.


Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000 respondents

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 February 2014

Client: One News

Report: 

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 44
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • Centre Right" – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
  • Centre Left – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • Centre – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Winston Peters

  • 43% say he should be a Minister
  • 43% say he should not

This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about MyNBR Tags

NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.7249 0.0002 0.03%
AUD 0.9338 0.0005 0.05%
EUR 0.6421 -0.0005 -0.08%
GBP 0.4810 -0.0001 -0.02%
HKD 5.6296 0.0033 0.06%
JPY 85.2210 0.0000 0.00%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1278.5 21.490 2015-01-30T00:
Oil Brent 54.0 3.800 2015-01-30T00:
Oil Nymex 48.2 3.640 2015-01-30T00:
Silver Index 17.2 0.430 2015-01-30T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 5759.8 5766.7 5759.8 -0.27%
NASDAQ 4671.2 4703.8 4683.4 -1.03%
DAX 10801.4 10804.0 10737.9 -0.41%
DJI 17416.8 17419.9 17416.8 -1.45%
FTSE 6810.6 6844.0 6810.6 -0.90%
HKSE 24771.4 24771.4 24595.8 -0.36%
NI225 17788.7 17808.5 17606.2 0.39%