What's behind National's surge, and the Green's record low

David Farrar

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll (on Curiablog) shows a large change since their last poll in October.

National is up 6% to 51% and the Greens have dropped 5% to 8%. This is the (equal) highest National has polled since the election and the lowest the Greens have polled.

Labour have stayed constant at 34%. Now voters do not tend to defect from the Greens to National. Almost certainly what has happened is National has picked up 5% to 6% off Labour, while Labour has picked up 5% from the Greens. This makes sense, as their giving welfare to families earning up to $150,000 will appeal to hard left voters, but be a total turn off for centrist voters.

Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was.

One should never jump to a conclusion off one poll. However the four polls done in February average out at 49% for National, 32% Labour and 10% Greens. That is a 7% lead for National, which is a huge contrast to January when National was 2% behind Labour and Greens combined.

It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.

The challenge for National is to resist arrogance or complacency. A 7% lead can disappear, and under MMP no election is safe.

Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.


Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000 respondents

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 February 2014

Client: One News

Report: 

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 44
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • Centre Right" – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
  • Centre Left – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • Centre – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Winston Peters

  • 43% say he should be a Minister
  • 43% say he should not

Got a question about this story? Leave it in Comments & Questions below.

This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about MyNBR Tags

NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.7229 0.0000 0.00%
AUD 0.9558 0.0000 0.00%
EUR 0.6462 0.0000 0.00%
GBP 0.5509 0.0000 0.00%
HKD 5.6125 0.0000 0.00%
JPY 73.5500 0.0000 0.00%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1322.6 1.400 2016-08-26T00:
Oil Brent 50.1 0.230 2016-08-26T00:
Oil Nymex 47.6 0.310 2016-08-26T00:
Silver Index 18.6 0.160 2016-08-26T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NZX 50 7427.8 7430.4 7427.3 -0.48%
NASDAQ 5219.1 5253.4 5212.2 0.13%
DAX 10512.2 10613.1 10529.6 0.55%
DJI 18467.9 18572.1 18448.4 -0.29%
FTSE 6816.9 6857.3 6816.9 0.31%
HKSE 22827.2 22997.4 22815.0 0.41%
NI225 16485.5 16490.5 16556.0 -1.18%
ASX 5541.9 5544.4 5541.9 -0.48%