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What's behind National's surge, and the Green's record low

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll (on Curiablog) shows a large change since their last poll in October.

National is up 6% to 51% and the Greens have dropped 5% to 8%. This is the (equal) highest National has polled since the election and the lowest the Greens have polled.

Labour have stayed constant at 34%. Now voters do not tend to defect from the Greens to National. Almost certainly what has happened is National has picked up 5% to 6% off Labour, while Labour has picked up 5% from the Greens. This makes sense, as their giving welfare to families earning up to $150,000 will appeal to hard left voters, but be a total turn off for centrist voters.

Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was.

One should never jump to a conclusion off one poll. However the four polls done in February average out at 49% for National, 32% Labour and 10% Greens. That is a 7% lead for National, which is a huge contrast to January when National was 2% behind Labour and Greens combined.

It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.

The challenge for National is to resist arrogance or complacency. A 7% lead can disappear, and under MMP no election is safe.

Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.


Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000 respondents

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 February 2014

Client: One News

Report: 

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 44
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • Centre Right" – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
  • Centre Left – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • Centre – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Winston Peters

  • 43% say he should be a Minister
  • 43% say he should not

Comments and questions
21

Well surely that would be NSA interference with Colmar's data. They wouldn't have a clue. Apparently the US will do anything to keep Key in the bunny seat. That's the word.

Yes. Of course.

Diddums !

Kim Dotcom hates National. National goes up
Kim Dotcom flirts with Greens. Greens go down
Kim Dotcom flirts with NZ first. NZ First goes down
The Internet Party is not even a blip on the radar.

As much as I hate to say it, as I do feel some sympathy for the big man, this looks very much like the Kim Dotcom backlash poll

A great poll for National

But a long way to go to the election and at 50% it is unlikely they will go much higher and more likely they will go back down.

Now is the time for National to finally create some legacy policy that takes NZ to another level. That is what we all expected of Mr Key - for the past 6 years.

To date they have done well but only by running a tight economy - no wealth creation has occurred - just redistribution and cutting costs running Government

C'mon John Key - the timing is perfect for something to create a long serving legacy for you - be bold and adventurous - not just for your ego but for NZ Inc

Not going to happen. No ideas. No soul. No vision.

Just wait ... the TPP is coming.

That will be his legacy, corprofacist boot stamping on the neck of kiwis for the next century. Ramming through the GCSB spying bill was a warm up for the booty.

What sort of people in Labour come up with these crazy baby bonus policies.
This will encourage the lower socio-economic people to have more children instead of getting an education.
This was tried in the Rowling days and thrown out by the electorate.
The only way for families to have more money for their children is to reduce the cost of housing and accommodation.
This cost is not in the CPI and has rocketed out of control under National. National will not control housing as most of their financial supporters are property investors.

I do not think Labour wants to get back into Government this year with their crazy baby bonus policies!!

Very wrong. The only way for families to have more money for their children, is to adjust the number of offspring they have to suit their incomes.

The circuit breaker for Labour will be its List. If it is dominated by gays and self serving unionists then it will hand the election to the Nats. If it shows good commonsense middle NZ'ers then it will get the support needed from middle NZ. Shane Jones'a campaign on supermarkets is appealing to middle NZ. That's where Labour must focus and bring in some new faces onto the front desk. Time to get a few retirements - King, Goff, Mallard etc.

All they have left are the gays, the academics and the self-serving unionists. And even the unionists must be starting to think they would be better off with National.

A vote against ideology and against ignorance. Neither the Greens nor David Cunliffe are credible. I am quite heartened by this ...

And here's hoping that Winston will come up with a few more clangers like Huka Lodge.

One senses that his electoral base is dying off and he is running out of issues.

And one hopes journalists will do their job leading to the election and he will be reminded of Owen Glenn, his 'NO' and Huka Lodge.

The most heartening point of this poll is it was conducted during Jones’s rant on the Supermarkets. SO baby bonus overcharging supermarkets etc, no where Labour goes can they show they can do the Average NZ’er better. Cunliffe was a fool with his Key lives in a leafy suburb speech, he obviously has not had a good look around his own street in Herne Bay. (Oh yes he is only living in a $2.5 million house in Herne Bay to make it easy for his wife to breast feed) As to the Greens, their continual “we know best” is what if failing them, its definitely not the suit, shirts & ties worn by Norman

Russell Norman's big mistake is to openly court the gay's votes under the false premise that gays are automatically greenies and all greenies automatically support gays.

The cold hard reality is that gays are amongst the most conspicuous consumers of material goods and services you could ever get, and they care little for the 'ideals' of the greenies.

So E- for Russell Norman - ain't no votes to be collected here by his stance.

To answer the headline question the answer is simple.

Labour and Greens have no sound policies that make economic sense and investors of all types both domestic and off shore, small and large can't trust either labour or the greens with running the economy.

Baby bonus, stop oil drilling, change power charging, possible reverse Sky City convention development involvement, $18.50 minimum wage and such like.

No confidence or sense of reasoning in many of the announcements the Greens and Labour are making and the public of NZ can see through them for what they really are- costly, impratical and damaging for NZ plus vote catching only.

in other words, populist

I was thinking more the type that put prunes on their All Bran.

Any wonder Labour has spent so many years in opposition in the last 75 years.

Thank goodness people have seen the light!
We live in the greatest Nation on earth, made so
by the productive efforts of our Primary Industries
and the supporting regulation of a government that knows what it is doing. Providing the best outcome for all without the need to despise
the productive sector as many in the Labour and Green camp seem to enjoy doing.

... Asked if Paraguay’s new government would recognize the claims of Santa Catalina’s peasants, the transition team’s responded with a recognition that the “rural sector has not been dealt with integrally for many years,” referring to the widening disparity between the success of agrobusiness and the struggles of small-time farmers. It said access to technology and technical assistance are campesinos’ most pressing needs. ... http://climate-connections.org/2013/08/12/in-paraguay-the-spread-of-soy-strikes-fear-in-hearts-of-rural-farmers/
- a sobering comparison. different society, different system ... - could this have been NZ without land reform and public infrastructure?

I wonder it it is not that more and more voters who might wish to vote a genuinely environmentalist ticket are seeing through the sham of the Watermelon Party. Norman is pure Red, not a trace of Green.