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While you were sleeping: Greek hope, Spanish concern

BUSINESSDESK: Equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic reflected optimism that the Greeks will be able to form a government this time but concern about the ability of Spain to stave off financial disaster.

The euro weakened, as did the Dow Jones Industrial Average in late afternoon trading in New York, last down 0.12%. Even so, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was last up 0.16%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was 0.73% stronger.

Eyes, and hopes, are on US Federal Reserve policy makers who start a two-day meeting overnight (NZT).

“A lot of people are waiting for the Fed, as there are still tons of questions, and a lot of people are waiting on the sidelines to see what happens,” Jason Rogan, director of US government trading at Guggenheim Partners, a New York-based brokerage for institutional investors, told Bloomberg News.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index ended the day with a gain of 0.1% on the previous session, during which the index rose as much as 1.1% and fell as much as 0.4%.

While investors applauded the small victory for the conservative New Democracy party in Sunday’s Greek election, removing the spectre of a Grexit from the euro, there is plenty of concern left.

“We don't know how the Greek government is going to shape out and what reforms they'll be able to put into place and there's still considerable uncertainty in Spain about their bank issues," Tom Schrader, managing director of US equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets in Baltimore, told Reuters.

"As we go through this period of indecisiveness ... you're going to see the markets basically whip around in a sideways pattern."

Concern intensified on Spain as its 10-year bond yields surged to another record since 1999, touching 7.29% earlier in the day, after signs that the nation’s already-troubled banks are facing an increasing amount of headwind.

Bad loans as a proportion of total lending at Spain’s financial institutions rose to 8.72% in April from 8.37% in March, the Bank of Spain said on its website.

Europe was a key concern on the agenda of the Group of 20 leaders meeting today in Mexico.

They are set to urge the eurozone to break the vicious link between its struggling banks and strained state finances, according to a draft communique prepared for the G20 summit and seen by Reuters.

It said Europe would take "all necessary policy measures" to resolve its crisis and said G20 leaders looked forward to the eurozone working closely with a new Greek government to keep it on a reform path and in the currency bloc.

Oil fell amid concern Europe’s crisis will dampen demand for the commodity. Brent August crude dropped $US1.48 to $US96.13 a barrel by 1.15pm EDT.

“There is a bearish economic contagion in Europe and it’s essentially bringing prices down,” Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts, told Bloomberg.

The euro fell from the highest level in a month, sliding 0.5% to $US1.2572 at 1.38pm New York time.

Comments and questions
4

Nothing has changed the solvency problem in Greece — this vote simply means that for now, Greece is not going to leave the euro

A year from now, should Greece remain in the euro club, they will have to pull a balanced budget out of their hats. It will be interesting to see the Greek leaders wanting huge cuts in the bailout terms and holding their membership in the euro club as bait. So we’re destined to revisit this all a year from now. And that’s assuming that a coalition government can be formed in the next three days.

I agree this just means that Greece's departure will now be longer and hopefully more orderly. The Greeks have to address 4 basic issues which they seem unwilling to do. They don't want to work, they don't want to pay tax, they have too many bureaucrats, they have too much debt. Giving them more bail out money, even at reduced rates, does not help any of these issues it just makes their debt level worse.

Mayby i underestimate the fall out, but rather than spending a bunch of printed bail out money funding Greece's irresponsible behavior (early retirement, rediculous deficits and lazy lifestyles) - default them and make an example of them to the rest of the EC - what happens if you dont get a job and pay your debts....you can't buy oil, imported food and pharmacuticals. Then use the bail out money to bail out the institutions left holding their defaulted loans, and clean up the banking mess rather than continuing to perpetuate the problem and funding them deeper into the crisis. Its just deferring the day of wreckoning, I wreckon. Defaulting them would educate the Greeks and the rest of the PIIGS on things we teach our kids (and they dont it seems), - you need to balance the books and behave in a responsible financial manner. Instead they continue to extort more credit out of the world in a strange game of russian roulette, - give us more moeny or we will declare ourselves broke !

I dont think the Greeks would be that worried long term on defaulting and departing from the Euro. Remember Iceland whose 2008 banking default on $85 billion pushed the economy into a recession that lasted through the first half of 2010? Well now Iceland is outgrowing Europe and the U.S. Its gross domestic product will expand 3 percent this year and 3.9 percent in 2013.

Basically, Iceland provides the perfect microcosm for observing the end results of cheap, plentiful cash and government market manipulation. Its rebound has been equally rapid, and the way it got there—ditching dead banks and writing off foreign investors.

Accordingly the Greeks may use the Iceland experience as their "business model" for recovery. Take the pain for a few years then bounce back.