It is looking as if this year’s wine harvest will fall short of last year’s record season, despite an additional 3000ha of grapes entering production for the first time.

New Zealand Winegrowers’ annual pre-vintage survey covers 91% of the 2008 harvest, and it’s projecting a tonnage of around 275,000, down 4% from last year’s record 285,000 tonnes.

That year was a 39% jump on the year prior, and has raised very real concerns of a  wine glut, as consumers' expendable income dries up in the recession.

The reduced harvest forecast doesn’t surprise NZ Winegrowers chief executive, Philip Gregan.

“Wineries and grape growers know that 2009 will be a challenging year due to the global recession. In that environment the industry is focusing more than ever on the key driver of our global success – producing world-class wines. Lower vineyard yields and a reduced total crop, despite the increased producing area, are the inevitable result of that focus.”
 
The weather leading into the vintage has been very positive, with most regions reporting excellent grape quality, he said.
 
Demand has fallen across key markets in the US and the UK and Winegrowers announced last year that Australia had become our top wine export location, replacing the UK.

Disturbingly, the New Zealand market is showing every indication of making the same mistakes the Australian wine industry did 10 years ago – overproduction and dumping, with the subsequent devaluation of the brand.

Calls to dump grapes have already come out of some of the larger wine houses and already there are indications that cheap, low quality sauvignon blanc is being dumped on the Aussie market.

Constellation brands have looked at not harvesting about 650 tonnes, or 3 pe%t of the Marlborough region's 24,000 tonne harvest.

The nation's wine exports have jumped 19% to a record $904 million last year, and despite this downturn exporters should still hit the industry's billion-dollar target in 2009, a year earlier than projected.