A slowdown in GDP growth to 2% or even a bit lower will be a significnat comedown after the 3.5% of recent times.
"You've got to think this is going to cause significant belt-tightening in the regions, so while the rest of the economy is doing okay, you've got a bigger downside risk," said Darren Gibbs.
Price inflation is expected to begin rising again when figures are released this Thursday – but to remain well below the target 1-3% target band.
The currency is now 6% below where the Reserve Bank expected: that is going to mean higher imported inflation than anticipated.
Duncan Bridgeman and Craigs Investment Partner's Mark Lister discuss the latest in shares news on NBR Radio, and on demand on MyNBR Radio.