Quelle surprise, says Registered Master Builders Federation

Economists are revising their growth forecasts upwards for the coming year – and also bringing forward their predictions of when the Reserve Bank will begin lifting interest rates.

The run of unexpectedly good economic data over the past fortnight suddenly has economists looking more upbeat – but only in the short term.

UBS New Zealand economist Robin Clements has increased his prediction of growth for the second half of this year form 0.5% to 0.7%, and a 3.5% rather than 3%, increase in GDP for the year to December.

Business confidence might still be low – but it is increasing according to a National Bank survey.

The National Bank’s Business Outlook for September, out today, showed only 2% of employers expected to increase staff in the next year.

But that was the first positive answer to that question the survey had received for 18 months.

Forty-nine percent of people surveyed expected better times ahead, a figure not seen since 1999 when recovery from the Asian crisis began. Last month only 34% were confident of a brighter economic future.

Poor old Westpac just can’t seem to put a foot right at the moment. A week after accidentally extending a $10 million overdraft to Rotorua petrol station owner Leo Gao, who promptly fled the country, the bank has made another stuff up.

Australian media are reporting that a security breach has allowed confidential Westpac shareholder information to be included in an official document published on the Australian Securities Exchange website.

Australia’s latest gross domestic product (GDP) data is due out today with economists raising hopes that the lucky country will narrowly avoid a technical recession.

Exports data released yesterday delivered more promise than expected, showing that the current account deficit narrowed to A$4.6 billion in the first quarter from a $6.4 billion deficit in the fourth quarter of last year.

Net exports are now expected to add 2.2 percentage points to GDP growth for the quarter.