dispatch from St Johnnysburg
David Farrar
David Farrar: Rating the first year
This weekend marks the first anniversary of the election of the Key Government. The Government was quite literally elected on election night – a first in our five elections under MMP.
One year on, the media have been ranking the various Ministers on their performance. In today’s Dispatch from St Johnnysburg I’m going to do it a bit different and rank the portfolios. This is not so much a judgment on the job the Minister is doing, but on whether or not the policies being pursued are good for New Zealand.
Finance
The 2009 budget pretty much wrote itself. Get debt and borrowing under control through spending restraint, suspending Super Fund contributions, and postponing the future tax cuts.
The big challenges are ahead. The painless low hanging spending fruit have been pruned. Now some entire orchards need spraying.
Some bold tax reform may be on the cards but will Cabinet get spooked?
Positive marks for a fiscal stimulus that mainly consisted of bringing forward capital infrastructure spending, rather than turn into a welfare lolly scramble as in the United States.
At this stage only a 7/10. Next year will be either a 9/10 or a 5/10 or lower. The 2010 budget is key.
Infrastructure
The speed of decision making is unheard of. After years, if not decades, of consultations, we have seven roads of national importance identified and six of them on their way.
The fibre to the home project is right on track also.
A 9/10
Energy
The rhetoric is good about unleashing NZ's mineral wealth, but how much is commercially viable?
The electricity sector reforms look fairly sensible, but ignore the issue that the state owned power generator companies would be better out of state hands.
6/10 but potential to be an 8/10 if those minerals do get unlocked
Justice
Barely a week goes by where a new law isn’t being passed in the Justice portfolio. Most of it is being supported by Labour also.
The implementation of the manifesto promises has gone smoothly. And a deal with ACT over a three strikes law would cement in a much tougher regime.
The civil libertarian in me worries that the pendulum may swing too far so the 9/10 reduces to an 8/10
Health
I’m only giving this one a 7/10. If I was rating the Minister’s management of the portfolio I’d give it close to a 10/10, but on the policy side, I think we need an honest conversation about what the state sector can and can not fund and provide.
On seconds thoughts I have upgraded the 7/10 to an 8/10 for killing off funding to some of the more zealous public health groups,.
Climate Change
When the Greens are shouting out that you are not doing enough, and ACT are shouting out you are doing too much, your policy is probably pretty well positioned. A 6/10 for work to date, but what comes out of Copenhagen may change that.
ACC
7/10 for the policy of paring back some of the more recent add-ons by Labour, and some tentative moves to competition and choice.
Education
I give this a 4/10. Now again this is not a rating of the Minister’s performance. It is a rating of what I think of the policy to date.
I think the teacher unions are to National what the coal miners were to Margaret Thatcher. I don’t think a policy of appeasement will bring about the educational changes we need.
The introduction of national standards is worthwhile, and will be very useful to many parents.
But I want performance pay for teachers and top teachers paid over $100,000. I want regular (bulk) funding of schools. I want bad schools to be allowed to fade away. I want massive reform, and I think we need it.
Also in the tertiary sector, I don’t know why we have stuck with Labour fee maxima policy, which sets universities up to fail.
Treaty of Waitangi
Good progress being made on all fronts. 8/10
Trade
Keep those FTAs flowing. 9/10
Social Welfare
I’m only going 6/10 here as the election policy implementation has been delayed, due to the recession. As the job market rebounds, work testing for those on the DPB should become a priority.
Overall
That’s a combined score of 77 over 11 portfolios, so an average score of 7/10. Some may say that is a bit low for a Government so popular in the polls.
The polls reflect that few people are objecting to what the Government is doing. And I’m one of those. There are few policies I actively disagree with. It is the policies that the Government isn’t doing, or not yet doing, that stop me giving them a higher rating.
Most Popular
Sponsored Links
- Talk to FleetPartners now and make the right decision about your vehicle fleet solution.
- Meet the SpaceseatTM, a new way to fly long-haul with Air NZ from November 2010
- Aviemore: " Grab an exclusive lake frontage land in South Island"
- Get your business banking up and running with Bizpac Essentials. Click here to find out more.
- Get 2.99%p.a. for 6 months on balances transferred to The Warehouse Rewards MasterCard. Conditions apply
.jpg)
Latest
- Lets face it, dysfunctional families are good for a laugh
- Cruise ship company expands into NZ
The good, the bad and the ugly - NBR 24/7's plays of the week- $19m claim but can Bill Birnie pay the bill?
- Bank seeks to liquidate Heatley-linked company
- What role for Auckland in primary economy?
- Jade’s profit slumps, but new product on the way
- Rich Listers and their ways
- Fletcher gears up for volume bounce-back
- Economy not much better than households think
NBR Services
By this author
.jpg)
Comments
FTAs
Hi David,
I can understand FTAs with nearish neighbouring countries like Malaysia, but can you remind me on why we want an FTA with the USA?
Seems like it's just an opportunity for the Americans to have their way with our domestic market like they have with all their other trading partners (do the Mexicans have anything good to say about NAFTA?).
The inequities in scale between our countries make me think there's no way NZ will benefit. If ACTA is any indication, an FTA with the US is our worst nightmare.
Disclosure: I'm a yank who now calls Aotearoa home.
the issue that the state owned power generator companies would b
Not sure that you are right about this one. I know that we are really not meant to say so but the whole privatisation thing hasn't really worked has it. Take a look at the FT if you want background on this topic, almost any day will do. You could start by reading some of John Kays articles on the topic. He sums up pretty much the whole thing. We have to come to terms with the fact that we cannot privatise our way to prosperity. So it looks like we need a new plan.
FTA's
David
You like most other people who live south of Auckland have once again made the mistake that people with abilities shouldn’t.
FTA are a foreign policy tool – you should never mix FTA and trade together – doing a FTA never results in business just an opportunity to do business.
Successive Gvmts have made the same mistake after spending our hard earned money having legions of bum warmers in wellington write and finally secure a deal they then drop all funding to actually put any system in place to get exporters to actually do trade with those country who’s FTA we signed.
Very short sighted but I guess is the cheapest option to make a sitting Gvmt look good.... it’s all about short term PR not long term trade.
Rating for trade is actually 2/10 at best!
Government's performance
What happens when petrol gets expensive again? All those new roads will be half empty while the diesel trains and buses are chocka.
How about less Government from Wellington? Whenever Auckland gets a good idea (like paying for our own trains) we get a new Government who cancels the idea.
My impression seems to be
My impression seems to be rather different to David's.
In contrast, I think this government has done very little.
Big on feel-good/look-good meetings and work-groups, but no real action.
The best they have accomplished so far seems to be National Cycleway which is going to turn our economy around.
I recall that this government promoted itself as 'the business guys' - the ones who new what to do to get us on track.
But they seem clearly clueless - simply blowing in the global economic breeze, incapable of any effective action, bar talking and being caught with their trotters in the trough...
But we'll see how they go won't we - they'll have to pick it up though, if anyone is to take them seriously next election.
The real truth
Answer to all of the above, missed by Farrah and omitted by the media (who are too scared to talk about it).
= pathway to global government. Period.
Just wait for the RFID implants to arrive.
Moggy has it spot on.
Justice
David Farrar said:
"The civil libertarian in me worries that the pendulum may swing too far so the 9/10 reduces to an 8/10"
Good God Farrar! You'll drop your assessment by ONE if you feel the pendulum has swung too far! You're a sell out to your supposed principles.
You should drop your support for a party that introduces legislation that robs New Zealanders of their liberties. You're a sell-out.
Justice
David Farrar said:
"The civil libertarian in me worries that the pendulum may swing too far so the 9/10 reduces to an 8/10"
Good God Farrar! You'll drop your assessment by ONE if you feel the pendulum has swung too far! You're a sell out to your supposed principles.
You should drop your support for a party that introduces legislation that robs New Zealanders of their liberties. You're a sell-out.
Climate change
The Greens and ACT both complaining doesn't mean you have a happy medium. It means you have a stupid trading regime when you should have a carbon tax - remembering that a carbon tax is a policy that (officially at least) both the Greens and ACT support.
If National had any thinking going on in that portfolio, they'd ditch the ETS and put in a carbon tax.
You look lovely...
This correspondent's grading of National is about as ingenuous as a bloke telling his wife of 30 years that she's still as beautiful as the day he met her. It might sound sincere but...c'mon!
Is the Cycle Track the best idea so far?
Maybe. It is, after all, a margin call, and that Key understands. Trader Jono, at your service.
Key's government has focused on the "international" problems -- the economy and global warming -- because it's an area in which we can do sod-all really.
This country faces two major cancers; P, with all the accompanying crime, gangs and hidden medical costs.
So far the words are there, but I don't see gangsters/drug-runners fleeing the country, do you? The Angels' pad in Mt Eden (the middle class capitla of NZ!) is looking plusher by the week. Business is booming
The other threat is the systemic rotten, leaky homes, with massive health costs, a threat to our financial rating when it turns out to be a $50-billion one (the PWC number of $11-bil is the "best-case" scenario....which is why no one has seen the final report) and mainly because it has undermined the integrity of this government so badly that Nick Smith could emerge as the next leader (he was, after all, the cause of the initial massive failing of housing stock from the mid 90s to 2005. The new one is Clark's baby).
Words like: venal, expedient, bereft of imagination, fifth-rate thinking, arse-covering, tepid, jellyfish, amoral, sad spring to mind as Key's government confesses they have no solutions for the leaky homes' VICTIMS (yes, same as battered babies, tortured elderly folk, gang-raped school girls etc) other than that they should cough 64% (sort of like the mythical "$64, 000 question", there's no other logical reason for the percentage, other than the government.....WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN PAID 25% OF THE COST OF THE REPAIRS OF LEAKY HOUSES.....12.5% THE FIRST TIME AND 12.5% gst THE NEXT TIME.....can only afford 10%.
Nothing about the fairness, legality or ethics of it.....simply affordability.
David, sadly, because I never thought this of Key, this sad tale is the supreme indictment of the first year......
Show me the creativity, the innovation, the clever thinking.....rather than a flourishing Nick Smith.....the govt's MVP as of now.
Is the Cycle Track the best idea so far?
Maybe. It is, after all, a margin call, and that Key understands. Trader Jono, at your service.
Key's government has focused on the "international" problems -- the economy and global warming -- because it's an area in which we can do sod-all really.
This country faces two major cancers; P, with all the accompanying crime, gangs and hidden medical costs.
So far the words are there, but I don't see gangsters/drug-runners fleeing the country, do you? The Angels' pad in Mt Eden (the middle class capitla of NZ!) is looking plusher by the week. Business is booming
The other threat is the systemic rotten, leaky homes, with massive health costs, a threat to our financial rating when it turns out to be a $50-billion one (the PWC number of $11-bil is the "best-case" scenario....which is why no one has seen the final report) and mainly because it has undermined the integrity of this government so badly that Nick Smith could emerge as the next leader (he was, after all, the cause of the initial massive failing of housing stock from the mid 90s to 2005. The new one is Clark's baby).
Words like: venal, expedient, bereft of imagination, fifth-rate thinking, arse-covering, tepid, jellyfish, amoral, sad spring to mind as Key's government confesses they have no solutions for the leaky homes' VICTIMS (yes, same as battered babies, tortured elderly folk, gang-raped school girls etc) other than that they should cough 64% (sort of like the mythical "$64, 000 question", there's no other logical reason for the percentage, other than the government.....WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN PAID 25% OF THE COST OF THE REPAIRS OF LEAKY HOUSES.....12.5% THE FIRST TIME AND 12.5% gst THE NEXT TIME.....can only afford 10%.
Nothing about the fairness, legality or ethics of it.....simply affordability.
David, sadly, because I never thought this of Key, this sad tale is the supreme indictment of the first year......
Show me the creativity, the innovation, the clever thinking.....rather than a flourishing Nick Smith.....the govt's MVP as of now.
10/10
For prepping the ground for mass privatisation, dismantling of ACC for good, causing a lower socio-econmic crime wave of unknown proportions and cementing New Zealand over-exposure to the "free" market. Bring on 2012 Mayanaise for Kiwis.
Government and the world economy
As a retail manager my opinion may not count for much on the world stage, but this government has not addressed the issue of business and consumer confidence. The way in which jobs of NZ's largest employer, viz. the NZ government have been threatened / wage frozen have caused the largest sector of this country's economy to stop spending at retail stores.
It is fundamentally unhealthy for the likes of Harvey Norman to be offering 18 months interest free plus 18 months interest free while the purchaser makes payments on discounted whiteware (a deal that I personally couldn't resist -36 months of other people's money)!!!!
Without consumer confidence there WILL be stagflation in this country!
It is already happening in the USA. Look at these facts! One in six families in New York State receives some kind of food aid (source US Department of Agriculture). The Dow Jones has risen by the same percentage as the US Government has pumped money into the economy - as has the gold price. Yet, the oil price has not moved as much - proof that underlying industrial and consumer demand for goods has not tracked Obama's bailout.
In short, this National Goverment will (hopefully) be, per Sir Bob Jones's prediction, a one term wonder! It will be a financial relief when we get a government that knows what it means to inject confidence into business. Say what you like, I hated Cullen, but trusted him with my money. I can't say the same for this bunch of petty prats!!!
Post new comment