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David Farrar: Shame on a protectionist Government

Phil Goff should have been trumpeting the good news this week. Just over a year ago he concluded negotiations with China for a free trade deal.

As free trade deals go, it was a very good one. Unlike the free trade deal between Australia and the United States, this actually lowered barriers in most areas of trade.

Goff negotiated the deal with strong support from his Prime Minister, Helen Clark, but with opposition from their Foreign Minister Winston Peters. Peters not only refused to endorse the deal, he actually launched a newspaper campaign attacking it while Clark and Goff were over in China signing it.

Can you imagine what the Chinese Ministers must have thought as their diplomats briefed them on what the New Zealand Foreign Minister was doing. They would have wondered why Peters had not been executed, or at least sacked.

This week we got the annual trade statistics for China. And they were a success story on a magnitude that must have exceeded the most optimistic expectations. Exports to China increased a massive 60% from a year ago. The previous year export growth was only 11%. Thanks to Goff and Clark, New Zealand managed 60% growth in exports to China, during the worst global recession in 70 years.

Former Green MP Nandor Tanczos asked on the blogs whether imports also grew by 60%, being of the view that increased imports would be a bad thing. Sadly for opponents of free trade deals, the imports from China increased by only 15%. So what a success story for Goff – exports up 60% from China during the worst global recession in 70 years, and imports only up 15%.

Personally I would not regard it as a bad thing if imports had grown more than 15%. You can’t logically be in favour of one way trade and think we should be able to export as much as possible, but restrict what other countries can export. If imports from China are up, this means NZ consumers are getting to buy goods more cheaply, and it also continues to lift more and more Chinese out of poverty. China’s emergence as the world’s manufacturer has done more to reduce the number of global citizens in absolute poverty than 50 years of aid budgets.

So in the week we should be celebrating the success of free trade, the National-led Government bizarrely decides to continue with our current tariffs on imports, freezing them in place until 2015.

A 5% tariff on processed foods, machinery, steel and plastic continues on, as does a 10% tariff on clothing, footwear and carpets.

In a bizarre statement from Tim Groser and Simon Power, they announce the tariffs will continue, without even one word of rationale as to why. In fact the rest of their statement is about the benefits of free trade, and how they are against protectionism.

Tim Groser surely knows that even without a free trade deal, it makes economic sense to reduce tariffs. It incentivizes capital and labour to flow into industries where New Zealand has a competitive advantage. We unilaterally reduced tariffs in the 1980s,1990s and 2000s, and up until the global recession had the lowest unemployment rate in the world.

So why is a National/ACT Government failing to reduce tariffs, when even a Labour/NZ First Government managed to do so? And was this not a missed opportunity for Phil Goff? He could have brilliantly done a Clinton triangulation and claimed credit for the 60% increase in exports to China, and lambasted the Government for being protectionist. That would have caused shockwaves, and forced Tim Groser to front up and explain why he thinks a 10% tariff on footwear should continue until at least 2015.

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Comments and questions
14

David, don't suddenly call it the ACT/National Govt when it comes to that decision - wasn't this decision made by the National Party ministers? I doubt ACT MPs would have a say in this, far as I know they are in favour of eliminating all tariffs.

Clint - yes it was probably a Cabinet decision, but where are the howls of outrage from ACT Ministers and MPs?

I imagine the ACT ministers and MP's are still in shock over the unfolding economic and prosperity illiteracy of this National govt. One can only wonder at the perceptual filters the National cabinet views the world with. Something motivates them that's for sure.

What's also for sure is that it is not the medium-long term prosperity and social health of all NZ'ers that's kept uppermost in mind. I think they must be poll junkies like Clark was, focused entirely on keeping enough people distracted and fooled each election cycle. Maybe they're just going for Winnie's voters and naff the rest. Any other clues?

good on ya mate

Without knowing any more precise details than those presented here in this piece, two comments come to mind: 1. What value do the 60% and 15% increases represent in dollars? It may well be that the dollar values of each roughly balance each other and are a more meaningful stat than the %. 2. Without knowing the precise logic behind the specific tariffs mentioned (and there is almost always a logic behind them despite the howling of a journalist that there is a lack thereof), many tariffs are designed to create a bit more of a level playing field between economies with high standards of production and economies with lax standards of production. I am sure you would agree that China can make its toys so much cheaper than NZ can, so sure let's import more of them.

But when your child ends up in hospital with lead poisoning and adds to the healthcare costs of the NZ nation, suddenly you realize an unaccounted for externality caused by the purchase and use of those "cheapest" toys...they are in fact not that cheap, as we have just explained your child is sick and costing the system any difference in the price you thought you had saved previously, probably more than the difference in which case the toys are in fact more expensive and we might as well have kept making toys in NZ. So tariffs are good, as they should help keep these items with quality/safety issues out. They contribute to free trade and are a meaningful and valuable part of it. Rather than decrease welfare as you think, they actually increase welfare in the medium to long term.

The key here is dropping a short term outlook to eliminate all tariffs as you are advocating. A short term outlook will kill us all, just as the lead poisoning did to our children.

You will of course be right that many are bad

are on now changed

based on outdated information and/or were motivated by true protectionism and executed perhaps via tweaked statistical analysis...but a little more evidence will be needed to convince me that the ministers you mention don't have any inkling of what they are doing.

You will of course be right that many tariffs are bad, motivated by true protectionism and executed perhaps via tweaked stat anlys...but a little more evidence will be needed to convince me that the ministers you mention don't have any inkling of what they are doing.

Either the CN net nannies were making it difficult for me to post to your website or your website programming has errors that made it somehow think I had inserted some foul language. In any case, apologies for the staggered comment.

In the last government politicians comprised of people who had rarely held a private sector job, had rarely personally invested in job creating activities, who knew nothing of risk-taking, who were largely ignorant of the daily challenges that businesses small and large have to face. In fact, many saw private for-profit business as evil and profits as ill-gotten gains.

The present government members, we thought were different that they had the various experiences and understanding of how to bring our country out of cradle to the grave dependency on a government that cannot possibly finance all the obligations it seeks to assume.

Sadly they are no better than labour. Under the guise of a ‘crisis’ they broke their promise of reducing our taxes and lost credibility. They are now intent on finding other ways to increase taxes by plundering the wealth of its people wherever it can be found. The Minister of finance is going overseas, cap in hand, looking for $40 billion over the next ten years. We are being governed by bureaucrats who actually believe the country can grow its debt and its expenditures faster than it grows its economy and still survive.

The Chinese political system is different, its foundation is cooperation, not confrontation as in New Zealand. Maybe nothing wrong with any of them, but you can't compare that easily.

China trade is a complete failure so far. If you are selling for $1 and then sell another for $1 you increased 100%, but not achieved much. You should have been selling for $1 million in the first place. The New Zealand trade balance tells the true story.

The key to the future with China is to replace the incompetent cardigan brigade and office couch potatoes in New Zealand organisations as NZTE and Tourism NZ with competent and experienced Kiwis already residing overseas and who know how to operate in the China market. NZTE and Tourism NZ expertise is to fleece the governement of more money, not to sell.

harriss.rick@gmail.com

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