Arab revolt: Following the money

History is being made with the overthrow of a generation of Arab dictators, many of whom (and their predecdessors) in turn turfed out monarchies in the post-colonial period after World War II.

A common denominator, apart from age, is that they have also made themselves rich at the expense of poor and generally illiterate populations.

Soon after President Ben Ali fled Tunisia for Saudi Arabia, reports surfaced of multi-billion-dollar stashes in Europe, the Gulf states and elsewhere.

These reports, including one by the BBC, have credibility because of earlier work by two French journalists on the profligate tastes of Mrs Ben Ali – Leila Trabelski, 52, a former hairdresser. Her spending habits resemble those of Imelda Marcos – luxury cars, opulent houses and no doubt lots of designer shoes.

The details were uncovered last year by Nicolas Beau and Catherine Graciet in The Regent of Carthage: The Looting of Tunisia (published in Paris).
It recounts, sector by sector, the growing number of takeovers by the Trabelsi clan: from banks to air transport, from real estate to private education, not to forget car dealerships.

The Daily Telegraph reported:

The hasty departure of 30 or more Ben Ali and Trabelsis family members has brought the Tunisian economy to its knees – 43 banks, 66 shops and 11 industrial plants have been destroyed since Mr Ben Ali fled.

Blogsite Omar Kkayyam expands on the Beau-Graciet book and tells this anecdote:

Their greed often goes so far as to committing robbery: Imed, the younger brother of Leila, likes so much luxurious yachts that he commissioned…the snatch of one of the most beautiful yachts of the Côte d’Azur. But there was a problem. The ship belonged to Bruno Roger, the extremely powerful boss of Lazard France.

The sudden departure of the Ben Ali-Trabelski clans – including the suggestion Mrs Ben Ali popoed into the central banks for a few bars of gold – will make it easier for investigators to track down much of the loot.

We're in the money – Mubarak style
In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak is desperately buying more time, partly no doubt to protect a much bigger fortune that that of Tunisia’s former first family.

Western media reports are much more dubious about Mubarak’s wealth, though ABC World News in the US has had a crack, quoting estimates of up to $US70 billion. Among its sources is US-based Aladdin Elaasar’s The Last Pharaoh: Mubarak and the Uncertain Future of Egypt in the Obama Age.

This amount is nearly double what a Syrian news website reported in September last year, quoting the Algerian newspaper Alkhabar. This report said President Mubarak, his wife, Welsh-born Suzanne, and sons Gamal and Alaa, had amassed some $US40 billion worth of properties and bank assets in the US, UK and Switzerland, among other places.

The report goes on (in badly expressed English but you will get the drift):

Ms Susan, according to a confidential report, was discussed in foreign source says, she became a member club of billionaires since 2000, when it was her personal fortune billion reserves fulfilled mostly in American banks, as they own property in several European capitals such as London, Frankfurt, Madrid, Paris and Dubai. Range from the wealth of Egypt's First Lady today between 3 and 5 billion dollars, has reaped the most personal of interventions for the benefit of its investors and businessmen.

The report also said the fortune was built up mostly from commissions on arms deals and from real estate deals in Cairo and in the tourism investment zones in Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh.

“Most major companies imposed on it to deliver 50% of their annual earnings to a member of the Mubarak family,” it said, quoting as examples a wide range of businesses from Marlboro cigarettes and Hermes luxury goods through to Egyptian franchises for McDonald’s, Skoda cars, Vodafone (remember the NZ connection), Movenpick ice cream and much, much more.

I cannot verify any of this, though any foreign executive operating in Egyptian can no doubt provide their own versions of who is getting the big baksheesh.

The cost of kleptomania
That leaves Libya, an oil-rich country run by Muammar Gaddafi, about whom little can be said that doesn’t paint him as a caricature worthy of Hollywood.

Commentator Ian Birrell, in London's Independent, describes Gaddafi’s kleptomania as like a (football) pools winner, who has spent, spent, spent a fortune – some say $US250 billion, others $US1 trillion – of oil money, much of it blown on vainglorious ventures.

Birrell continues:

There is a story Libyans tell of a Dubai prince who visited soon after Gaddafi seized power. Looking around at the dazzling wealth, he vowed that one day his nation would be as rich and successful. Now Libyans live in the shadow of those skyscraper city-states, where, for all their faults, the rulers at least ensure their people have superb public services.

In Libya, by contrast, the infrastructure is crumbling, poverty is endemic, power cuts a way of life. Educational standards are poor, wages low and unemployment, especially among the young, is high. All this in a country where, although the population has grown fast, there are still only six million people sitting on huge reserves of some of the world's best crude oil.

The money's on Sulieman
A smart bet on Egypt’s future leader is newly installed Vice-President Omar Suleiman becoming the new military strongman. This is the forecast of some Middle East experts, who see the army continuing to hold the Islamists at bay.

Suleiman’s plan is to dissolve parliament, write a new constitution, call new parliamentary elections and later hold presidential elections.

Israel-based Barry Rubin provides this forecast of what the Egyptian establishment would prefer:

Suleiman has wanted to be president for a long time, hated the idea that Gamal Mubarak, the son, would succeed Husni. If anyone in Egypt can save the situation, he's the man. For his candid views, read this Wikileaks document. Of course, precisely because he understands the Iranian and revolutionary Islamist threat, the opposition will want to get rid of him as fast as possible.

A similar conclusion is reached by Daniel Pipes in his Washington-based commentary: "I bet on the more-continuity-than-change model that has emerged so far in Tunisia. Heavy-handed rule will lighten somewhat in Egypt and elsewhere but the militaries will remain the ultimate powerbrokers."