The TAB's $5m World Cup competition: and then there was *still* one

Investment analyst Jeremy Sullivan says the chances are one in 4,350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

UPDATE / June 19: Remarkably, after 13 World Cup games, including upsets by Mexico and Iceland, one punter is still in the running. to win the TAB's $5 million competition.

The betting agency has yet to update its leaderboard for this morning's game, the 14th, which saw England beat Tunisia 2-1 (a result that some Mother Country depressives would also call an upset). 

UPDATE / June 18: Before the World Cup kicked off, party-pooper Jeremy Sullivan pointed out it was long odds to pick the exact result of every game — the feat necessary to win the TAB's "Free Kick at $5m" competition.

As in 1 in 4,350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

Some 45,590 entered the free competition.

So how are things going after four playing days, and 10 games?

There is just one punter left.

And that's before the TAB's site is updated for the just-completed game 11 (Brazil 1 - Switzerland 1) which, like game 10 (Germany 0 - Mexico 1) saw an upset this morning.

The single person still in the running now have to hope they've correctly guessed the scoreline of the remaining 53 matches (if they haven't already dipped out on Brazil v Switzerland).

Piece of cake.

If you want to pace a more conventional bet, Brazil are now the favourites (paying $4.50), just ahead of Germany ($5.00) and Spain ($6.50).

Australia, which lost 2-1 to France overnight, is near the bottom of the heap, paying $301.

At the bottom of the field are Saudia Arabia (which lost the opener 5-0 to hosts Russia), Tunisia and Panama, all paying $501.

EARLIER / June 14: Analyst rates odds of winning $5m World Cup competition
As the world counts down to the kickoff of the 2018 FIFA World Cup tomorrow, the TAB is pushing its "Free Kick at $5m" competition.

All punters have to do is correctly guess the exact result of all 64 games, and that cash mountain will be theirs.

Plus it's free to enter (bar the junk mail cost of going on the TAB's marketing database).

Now, the bad news.

Even if readers don't have maths degrees, they have probably got an inkling that it's long odds but just how long might surprise them.

Hamilton Hindin Greene investment analyst Jeremy Sullivan has been crunching the numbers and says: "The chances of winning are approximately 1 in 4,350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, or one in 4 thousand, 350 billion, billion, billion."

Or, to put it another way, 4.35 nonillion.

"Compare this with winning first division Lotto where the chances are 1 in 38.3 million," Mr Green says.

That info won't put off everyone, of course. 

"To quote Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber – “So you're telling me there's a chance?" the analyst quips.

For those who want to take a more conventional approach to gambling on the World Cup, the TAB has Brazil and Germany as joint favourites, each paying $5.

Saudi Arabi, which plays in the tournament opener against hosts Russia, has the longest-equal odds odds, paying $501 if it ultimately wins the final.


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Commenter icon key: Subscriber Verified

Chris, the leader has 14 out of 17 at the moment, they are not in the running for the 5m.

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