ANZ truckometer predicts strong end to year
Economic indicators are now united in picking a strong second half to the year, ANZ says.
The bank's September Truckometer figures suggest the economy will truck on through the second half of the year.
The Heavy Traffic Index – which has a contemporaneous relationship to GDP – suggests a potentially spectacular Q3 result, according to the bank.
The index fell 0.9% as heavy traffic flows on seven of the 11 roads in the index fell last month.
However ANZ says the Heavy Traffic Index has a strong upward trend. It has had the strongest quarterly increase in the history of the series.
ANZ says while drought-related timing impacts probably explain the discrepancy between the Heavy Traffic Index and GDP at the beginning of the year, the strong upward trend bodes well for the future.
In contrast, the Light Traffic Index trend is flattening out.
The Light Traffic Index – which predicts activity ahead – fell 0.4% to complete a fairly ho-hum quarter. Light Traffic fell on nine roads and rose on only one road in September.
ANZ says the upward trend in the index appears to be running out of steam, but this is not cause for alarm given the strength of activity predicted in the second half of 2013.