Majority of NZ First supporters want party to ally with Labour: Colmar Brunton

Peters: third time lucky?

RELATED AUDIO: Rob Hosking recaps the election and what it means for those governing (Sept 28)

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Sixty-five percent of New Zealand First supporters would prefer their party to enter a coalition with Labour.

Twenty-five percent would rather the party goes with National.

That's according to a Colmar Brunton poll of 1007 eligible voters, interviewed September 2-6 (before the election, although the results of this particular question have only just been released).

Of the surveyed group, 46% said they would prefer to see New Zealand First support a Labour-led government, and 33% a National-led coalition.

At this point, some will say: Why believe Colmar Brunton, with its dinosaur system that relies on landlines. And you know, Trump, Trump, Brexit, Brexit, Wibble Wibble.

Well, because Colmar Brunton's final-week poll (Nat: 46, Lab: 37) was very close to the election night result (Nat: 46, Lab: 36). Ditto for Reid Research.

One millennial sarked on Twitter, "What's a landline," to which I replied, "That thing on your desk at work."  Whatever technology polling companies use, they keep plugging away until they have enough young 'uns to match the population.

Regardless, Winston Peters will, of course, dismiss any poll and keep his own counsel.

Two strikes
But some might encourage him to look at history. In 1996, NZ First secured 13% of the vote, positioning it as kingmaker in our first MMP election.

It entered a coalition with National, which blew apart. In 1999, it got just 4% of the vote.

In 2005, NZ First got 6% of the vote, again making it kingmaker.

That time, it plumped for Labour. That coalition fell apart, too. Although it was more of what Gwyneth Paltrow might call a conscious uncoupling, NZ First was again punished at the ballot, with its vote in 2008 again falling below the 5% threshold.


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40 Comments & Questions

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Surely Winston First voters cannot be overly concerned with which party Winston chooses. If they had preference for Labour or National that is what they would have voted for. Winston First gave no indication of who he will side with and therefore his voters are obviously prepared to accept either outcome.

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He has plenty of time next week. He should hold a series of hui up and down the country and put it to the NZ First membership. Democracy in action.

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you only say that because you are a Labour supporter

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The word is meetings - not hui...And we've already had democracy in action...

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>>> "If they had preference for Labour or National that is what they would have voted for." I agree.

You can read too much into percentages if you don't ask 'WHY?'

What Colmar Brunton missed from the poll is why they prefer their chosen coalition.

36% of people voted for labour, and 46% of people voted for National.
46% of people think Winston should enter a coalition with Labour but only 33% think Winston should enter a coalition with National.

The difference between the 36% election vote for Labour and the 46% who think Winston should coalesce with Labour is 13%.

It is unlikely that 13% of National voters think that Labour + Winston is an intelligent choice, given that they originally voted National, and especially since Winton has recently stated he will go with the party with the most financial nous, and able to weather the global financial storm ahead, or words to that effect.

Perhaps these 13% are actually smart National voters who know how much the coalescing party will have to concede, and how much damage Winston is capable of causing. Maybe they therefore wish Winston to wreak havoc on the Labour party rather the National party!

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I would imagine that Winston sees the big picture.
Labour's handling on taxation issues demonstrated the dubious approach that Labour has to had with total
disregard from where the broad tax base is derived!
Pandering to voters, is too much of a 'lolly scramble'
when it comes to clear and precise tax structures.
and the capital gains business just ill informed.

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Another deep state opinion piece pretending to be an objective article...using Colmar Brunton as source of reason.

Situations vacant: Journalism.

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If you don't like the facts discredit them.....

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Colmar Brunton? Facts?

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I voted NZ1 and would prefer National coalition.

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So to recap - 65% of NZ First supporters would prefer a coalition with Labour. 25% would prefer a coalition with National. And 10% needed to turn their hearing aids up?

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What did you say, Crackity? Could ya speak up?

Where's Winnie, anyways? Such a lovely man......

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People should read the article on MMP by Oliver Hardwich on the New Zealand Initiative website. He explains how voters here have yet to understand how MMP works, or should work

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Maybe our political parties should read this too.

And I'd also recommend a copy of ' Bargaining for Advantage '
Subtitle: Negotiation Strategies for Reasonable People

Author: G. Richard Shell

Why It's Worth Reading: This books starts from the idea that you must first "know thyself" before you try to negotiate with others. It identifies five styles of negotiating and provides tools to help you understand which ones work for you under different circumstances. As a result, the book is a good prerequisite for making the best use of the other books in this list.

Best Quote: "Your personal negotiation style is a critical variable in bargaining. If you don't know what your instincts and intuitions will tell you to do under different conditions, you will have a great deal of trouble planning effective strategies and responses."

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NZ First supporters? Stop right there, you've identified the problem.

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It's funny how facts are only facts when it suits National supporters

Colmar Brunton was 100% right on the election so why wouldn't they be close now or thereabouts - ah that's right because it doesn't agree with Nationals agenda. Next thing Bill English and National will only be communicating via Twitter like their USA comparison - Donald Trump

It is all fake news now I suppose

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Colmar Brunton was 100% wrong on the election. They consistently had Labour at ca 45% in the final throes. It was the least accurate of all the polls.

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So by my math, a third of NZF's seats if given to National would be sufficient to give it a clear majority in the House with Act's vote lending extra support. Whereas if 2/3rd's of New Zealand First's votes were given to Labour they would still not have enough to form a majority in the House even with the Greens voting in support.

I think the way ahead is clear. NZF must go with National to clearly reflect the will of the people.

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Your basic maths are correct but your formula is wrong

The formula is called MMP not the National formula that has an answer that always ends up in Nationals favour

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I see. So it's democracy or majority rules when it suits you, but MMP when it doesn't. Your craven hypocrisy, Scribe, knows no bounds, as you have demonstrated in here many many times.

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Steve you are the hypocrite - we have an MMP system and that is what is playing out. MMP equates to whoever agrees to co exist to get over 50% - it has never been the highest polling party has the upper hand

That is our democracy old boy

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Its gets embarrassing when you pretend to put up rational objective arguments because whatever road you choose the destination always tends to be the same

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Thats the same type of bull that Colmar Brunton had in their first two polls that favoured Lie-bour around the mentioned dates.. With 263 Lie-bour/Green sycophants in TVNZ news room . Who would believe that poll. Not many believed their other 2 polls/ Was intereresting when the third poll came up,only after CB was looking stupid ,after Newshubs Reid Poll. CB came clean,after allegations and questions were bing asked what is going on at TVNZ.

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the polls called it correctly last week to our surprise , colmar should have asked people if they thought winston should be prime minister in a nz first/labour govt be better than a nz first/ labour govt with an inexperienced prime minister who is already offside with the aussies .

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Look at that pic of Whinny: 'The cat that got the cream' moment, if there ever was one.
65% of NZF supporters think there are more 'bubbles'-of-office to be had with Labour than with National. To be sure.

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Yes, NZF should join the labour party. We would have another election in 18 months and we would finally be rid of the Winston pest.
Isn't MMP fantastic. A man with 4-5 % of electoral power can now hold NZ to ransom. Possibly for weeks or months.

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I am like everyone else's let's focus on covement who are going to deliver what they bromise the people to deliver as health tax houses I am strongly towards Labour to take over New Zealand and hoping Mr Peter were joined Labour party.

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One of my votes went to NZ First - same with a lot of people here in Northland. For the record, he'd better bloody well go with National.

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You guys need to grow up its not just about labour or national but a decision that will see
NZF party survive in to the future so give the man the space that is needed
The country not coming to a grinding Holt

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The question on voters choice of who they wanted NZF to be in coalition with. At the time the same question was conveniently asked ,to match the main question Labour or National.TVNZ and their polling company got the answers they wished for. Even if two of the tree polls CB released were rogue. Now almost three weeks after the questionable polls ,seems part B gets released ,fancy that.
If the Labour/Green sycophantics TVNZ were doing what they should be. Maybe common sense would get the polling company to ask the same question now,as the whole of NZ awaits the result.
Wonder what part of that do TVNZ not understand. With almost 600 employees ,and 263 in their newsroom,maybe they are afraid to release a newer poll. Reason being the result they crave for may not match the earlier September 5 Poll.

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Thank you for your summation, which is the smartest yet. In the UK and USA the journalists tried to forecast the results and were wrong, the same has happened here, and like the UK & USA the journalists continue to try to manipulate the result so they will be seen as clever. If Colmar Brunton stand by their polling how about the release the questions they asked and the manner they were asked in.

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Typical of almost everything that happens (doesn't??) in this little-country-that-could. Paralysis by analysis. Sigh...

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This article would have had some relevance if it was done after the election when it was known that National got 46, Labour 35.8 rather than 3 weeks before the election when it looked even.

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Helen Clark spoke and said NZ has voted and the vote must be respected
Nation are the majority and Peters must go with them
This is regardless of labor being policy free. Other than taxation

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More speculation going on here than a Bitcoin convention. It ain't over til Paula Bennett sings.

Regardless, the day after a decision I assure all here that the sun will rise, the birds will sing, and life will go on.

Can't wait to get on with life and better news!

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Has Colmar Brunton surveyed the NZ public on the subject of whether Maori seats in parliament should be terminated?

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Winston will do what he wants.

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A referendum on the Maori seats is a must =if Winstone gives away this promise then he betrays a lot of people who voted for NZ First.

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No, it isn't. And judging from preliminary feedback, the no Maori seats bottom line is already redundant. Incidentally, there are some Labour voters who would prefer that Winston inflicted himself on the National Party again. Although there'd probably have to be a new election in 2019 if we end up with another 1998 walkout.

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If Labour get back in, I hope it doesn't mean an end to all the roading projects around the country. I suppose money will be diverted away to Labour's more important priorities, like only helping out the tramps and beggars around the place, at the expense of working class people.

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