Sixty-five percent of New Zealand First supporters would prefer their party to enter a coalition with Labour.
Twenty-five percent would rather the party goes with National.
That's according to a Colmar Brunton poll of 1007 eligible voters, interviewed September 2-6 (before the election, although the results of this particular question have only just been released).
Of the surveyed group, 46% said they would prefer to see New Zealand First support a Labour-led government, and 33% a National-led coalition.
At this point, some will say: Why believe Colmar Brunton, with its dinosaur system that relies on landlines. And you know, Trump, Trump, Brexit, Brexit, Wibble Wibble.
Well, because Colmar Brunton's final-week poll (Nat: 46, Lab: 37) was very close to the election night result (Nat: 46, Lab: 36). Ditto for Reid Research.
One millennial sarked on Twitter, "What's a landline," to which I replied, "That thing on your desk at work." Whatever technology polling companies use, they keep plugging away until they have enough young 'uns to match the population.
Regardless, Winston Peters will, of course, dismiss any poll and keep his own counsel.
But some might encourage him to look at history. In 1996, NZ First secured 13% of the vote, positioning it as kingmaker in our first MMP election.
It entered a coalition with National, which blew apart. In 1999, it got just 4% of the vote.
In 2005, NZ First got 6% of the vote, again making it kingmaker.
That time, it plumped for Labour. That coalition fell apart, too. Although it was more of what Gwyneth Paltrow might call a conscious uncoupling, NZ First was again punished at the ballot, with its vote in 2008 again falling below the 5% threshold.
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