Hillary hanging on by a finger nail

Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton)

NZIER deputy chief executive John Ballingall says the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency should worry kiwi firms

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The new FBI email investigation trimmed Hillary Clinton’s lead – so comfortable this time last week – to near zero, both nationally and in key battleground states.

Surveys indicate that a re-energised Donald Trump has won voters from third-party candidate Gary “What’s Aleppo?” Johnson – the two-time Republican governor of New Mexico who had been polling in the 7% to 8% range has suddenly fallen to 4% to 5% territory (the Libertarian has helped Mr Trump’s cause with a string of interview blunders). Green Party candidate Jill Stein has remained static around 2%.

The latest poll-of-poll numbers are below.

Some caveats before you read them.

Green candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot in all states, including battlegrounds North Carolina and Nevada. Mormon candidate Larry McMullin is only on the ballot in a single state – Utah – but the latest poll indicates he could win it and its 6 electoral votes, which could prove crucial in what now seems to be a super tight race (270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the White House; votes are allocated to states on a per-population basis, in nearly all cases winner-take-all).

More than 31 million have cast an early vote (in 2012, 46 million cast an early vote of a total 128 million voters – remembering that the election is always on the first Tuesday of November, a work day). In some battleground states, a quarter of registered voters had cast a ballot before the FBI bombshell hit. Surveys of early votes have been mixed for Hillary Clinton. Hispanics are voting in greater numbers than 2012, but the black vote is down by roughly the same margin. 

The momentum is with Mr Trump. His position has been improving day by day since the FBI news broke last Friday. Mrs Clinton could arguably perform better than polls suggest, given she has substantially more money for last minute advertising, and a larger get-out-the-vote operation on the ground. But things are still on a knife edge.

Mr Trump is now ahead in the two largest battleground states, Ohio and Florida, and ahead or within the margin of error in key smaller battleground states that get him over the 270 line. Even states like Pensyvannia — regarded as a must-win for Trump but seemingly out of reach a week ago — are now competitive for the Republican. Mrs Clinton's possible saving grace is that her margin in some of the swing states is slightly more than her razor-thin national lead.

The Democrat can take some solace from the fact that no new damaging revelations have emerged from the newly investigated emails (at least so far) and the fact that FBI director Comey did not know their contents before he informed Congress created a line of counter-attack.

Mr Trump’s attacks are vague, with nursery-rhyme level riffs (he told a Miami crowd early today NZT:  “Crooked Hillary. She is crooked. She is a crooked one. Has anyone seen crooked Hillary Clinton today?") Yet, clearly, the FBI controversy was a Clinton scandal tipping point for a number of independent or Gary Johnson voters – who have been drawn to Trump.

So, there’s how things stand as the long-suffering American electorate endures Mr Trump flipping to supporting the establishment, and Mrs Clinton flops to saying the FBI is trying to rig the race:

RealClearPolitics’ poll-of-polls

  • Clinton: 47.0%
  • Trump: 45.3%

RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls with the third-party candidates included:

  • Clinton: 45.3%
  • Trump: 43.4%
  • Johnson: 4.6%
  • Stein: 2.1%
     

New York Times poll-of-polls

  • Clinton: 45.5%
  • Trump: 42.1%

Or, with Johnson factored in (the NYT is not tracking Stein):

  • Clinton: 45.0%
  • Trump: 41.5%
  • Johnson: 5.3%
     

FiveThirtyEight

  • Clinton: 48.6%
  • Trump: 45.1%
  • Johnson: 4.7%
  • Other: 1.6

7 · Got a question about this story? Leave it in Comments & Questions below.

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7 Comments & Questions

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Hear that the African American turnout is low which is in part due to the fact that there is no Obama type candidate running.

Will run down to the wire and if you look at Brexit the only certainty is uncertainty.

When dyed in the wool Democrats are saying they will vote for Trump after the latest FBI release Donny may just do it.

Did anyone watch the Moore film this week? Tuned in and then zoned out as it seemed to be a campaign for Clinton.

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Yes, Hispanic vote up but black vote down by roughly the same margin (see link in article above)

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Say again.

Now Barrack is getting involved mocking the FBI. Look the investigation is on going. What could be worse the investigations are re-energized after the election, come on.

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Obama - We don't operate on incomplete information..................
Ummmmmm Weapons Of Mass Destruction

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Not to mention "we have to pass this law to find out what's in it" regarding Obamacare...

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The FBI does not seem to like Hillary. Maybe its because the Clinton Foundation is just one gigantic pay to play organisation and the FBI has decided that enough is enough.

A former FBI official said Sunday that Bill and Hillary Clinton are part of a “crime family” and argued top officials hindered the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server while she was secretary of State.

During a radio interview with John Catsimatidis, former assistant FBI director James Kallstrom heaped praise on Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump before taking aim at the Clintons.

“The Clintons, that’s a crime family, basically,” Kallstrom said. “It’s like organized crime. I mean the Clinton Foundation is a cesspool.”

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303458-former-fbi...

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Aligns pretty well with the late Christopher Hitchens investigations of them, that led him to being alienated by many of his leftist colleagues by breaking ranks on the Clintons.

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