Horizon poll: Nats & Labour neck-and-neck, ACT at two MPs

Two very different visions of NZ: Ardern and English on the campaign trail (images: @pmbillenglish, @jacindaardern)

Horizon manager Grant McInman on his company's knife-edge poll

0
0:00 0:10

National (38.5%) and Labour (38.2%) are neck-and-neck according to a new poll from Horizon Research.

The survey also finds ACT on 1.4%, just over the 1.2% threshold for David Seymour to bring in a second MP on his coat-tails if he holds Epsom – although Horizon manager Grant McInman concedes it's difficult to pin down support for the minor parties.

The headline Horizon results (click to zoom):

Sample: 846 registered, likely voters, surveyed online Sept 9-14. Weighted by age, gender and region to match census data. Compliant with the Research Association New Zealand Political Polling Code.

Translated into seats, the survey would leave National (48) short of the 61 needed for a bare majority even if allies ACT (2) and the Maori Party (1) hold their electorates. NZ First (12) would be kingmaker.

Mr McInman says the overall message of his and other companies' polls is that the race is too close to call.

It could come down to which party is most effective at getting its supporters to the polls, he says.

So far, advance voting has been heavy overall according to Electoral Commission data but with the caveat that the under-30s have actually registered in smaller numbers than 2014 – a sub-trend that has to concern Labour, given it draws disproportionately high support from that group; see age split figures below.

Expected and preferred coalition leader
"Who do you expect to win?" is a question sometimes used by pollsters to tease out a possible change in voting intention, or to highlight possible trends under the herd mentality that sees some voters break at the last minute for the party they think will get over the line.

Horizon found that, overall, 59% of decided voters are expecting Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed. Some 41% expect National would lead it.

Asked who they would prefer to lead a coalition, 53% say Labour, 47% National.

Gender split
Women are a significant driver of Labour’s support in this poll especially since the change to Jacinda Ardern as leader, says Horizon manager Grant McInman.

According to his company's survey, 42% of women voters support Labour, 33% National.

National is stronger among men: 44% to 34% for Labour.

Two very different visions of NZ: Ardern and English on the campaign trail.

Age split
By age, Labour’s strongest support is coming from those aged 18-34.

Some 52% of definite voters aged 18-24 support Labour, 25% National.

Some 47% of those aged 25-34 support Labour, 32% National.

The parties each have 32% of those aged 35-44 years.

National has more support among those aged 45+.

Among those 65+, National has 52%, Labour 29%.

How others are calling it
The Horizon poll comes on the heels of a Roy Morgan survey released last night that had National 40% on (down from 42.5% a month ago), Labour 39.5% (from 32.5), Greens 9% (no change), NZ First 6% (down from 11.5%), the Maori Party on 2% (high enough for a coat-tail MP) and ACT on 0.5%. "Others" including TOP are on 2.5%.

The past week has also seen opposing polls from Newshub-Reid Research (Nat 47.3, Lab 37.8 NZF 6, Green 4.9:  ACT 0.6) and 1 News-Colmar Brunton (Lab 44, Nat 40, Green 7, NZF 6, ACT 0.6).

All of the surveys quoted above were taken in whole or part before the week's major development: Labour leader Jacinda Ardern's "captain's call" to delay most of the party's tax reform agenda until after the 2020 election.


81 · Got a question about this story? Leave it in Comments & Questions below.


This article is tagged with the following keywords. Find out more about MyNBR Tags

Post Comment

81 Comments & Questions

Commenter icon key: Subscriber Verified

Good news, as it seems a party vote for ACT will not be a wasted one for the blue team. Let's hope it is right.

Reply
Share
  • 9
  • 2

The best outcome for ACT, long term, would be for National to start the match with Winston & Ron Mark and leave ACT on the bench.

Reply
Share
  • 3
  • 0

YES Ms Lewis-Green YES
And ACT could build from there, feeding off the ridiculousness of Mr No .

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 0

How exciting

That would mean ACT could support the government wasting $100M on widening the road to Rotorua airport
What a complete waste of money and election bribe.
The next question would have to be " will National even deliver the $100M road?"
They orimised 10 bridges in Northland last election and failed to deliver.

If spending $100M on the road in Rotavirus is prudent government I'll be damned

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 3

Alternatively, ACT could oppose any profligate spending by a National/NZ First coalition.

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 0

I really hope we get a Green and Red Government. National have very little policy and campaign so negatively! They are destroying the values of a fair and just society and seem careless of people whom aren't wealthy. Notably the environment is a low priority in these critical times for life on Earth. I think the suicide rate is a National disgrace!! Time to move on from the politics of selfishness of personal and corporate greed!
It also interests me to know who is polled? How big is the sample size and I feel the polls are used to much to influence voting. I hope we get an intelligent and caring Government that will take us back to the land of opportunity we have been and can aspire to!

Reply
Share
  • 2
  • 2

Vote Red or Green and get Venezuela or Argentina if we are lucky.

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 1

Ooh, ooh, I can play this silly game too!

Vote right-wing and get gas ovens for undesirables if we're lucky!

Yay, so smart!

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Vote Red or Green and get Venezuela or Argentina if we are lucky.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Whom aren't wealthy? Gosh shows a bias toward a
certain party Joanna. Better brush up your grammar too!
Labourites may well be challenged by basic rules of grammar--He wrote the letter. Therefore.who is correct.
Should I vote for him? Therefore, whom is correct.
Wanting to appear sophisticated? wrong party!

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 1

Cheaper and more useful bribe than handouts to Uni students.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Certainly good news all around. Maggie Barry has just given Superannuand couples a pay rise of $680..00 a year. That is over and above the $26.00 legislated for and available from April 1 2018. Also a cost of living increase on top of that. Two of the three increases are subject to National Government being returned at the General Election on 23 09 2017.Lets make sure you get it.Would certainly be a big help for so many pensioners who are on a fixed income.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Winston will be happy... now that he is a couple. But then again he didn't notice when he was single, the extra money he was getting for not being a couple, even though he was a couple. So will he notice this extra money as a couple now that he is not single, or will he think they have put him as a single again. What a muddle.

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 0

"Muddle" That's putting it mildly.
Mr No is now running back and forth crying, "foul, foul, somebody has leaked out that I done nothing wrong"!!
Muddle? I'd call it "doolalee"

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

One thing seems always able to be counted on. National will keep shuffling more and more money the way of boomers while reducing the opportunity of young Kiwis. They know who their voters are.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Yes. Gives me far more confidence in voting for Act. Seymour has been most impressive in his TV debates.

Reply
Share
  • 9
  • 0

Given Winston's obvious dislike for the Greens, if accurate, this makes for an interesting week. The big question it raises is: could Winston coalesce with ACT/Nat (62 seats)?

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 0

I don't think that'll work. Winston also doesn't like ACT and ACT doesn't like Winston. So that wouldn't work.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

It's always hard to be sure with Winston and his usual talking-in-riddles, but in his long-form, car-crash interview with Guyon Espiner earlier this week, he did appear to say that he had no bottom lines. In any case, NZF or ACT could support National on confidence and supply without going into formal coalition. 

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

But that's the same with Labour and NZ First. Greens can offer a confidence and supply agreement.

But I think things are going against National at the moment. Majority of polls see Labour winning government. Even then I see National struggle in the future, especially with the Youth vote, which will prove critical for politics in the future.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Not to mention the gender gap. For the good of the country, I hope there's a clean and clear result one way or the other. Either Labour and the Greens govern on their own, or National can gain enough support from ACT and the Maori Party without having to rope in 'it'.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

As they get older and more experience of life their vote seems to change to a conservative vote.
ie once they start paying tax, a mortgage and their children are at highschool
The young voter needs to think about what the university bribe will cost them in later years. Someone ultimately has to pay, and they will (hopefully) be working eventually and paying tax, all those wonderful taxes that labour impose.

Reply
Share
  • 2
  • 0

Maybe..... but there is a rising movement throughout the world to move left wing. US, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ. All these countries are wanting a left wing government, especially among the younger voters.

However what's not to stop Labour/Greens not lowering the voter age and making enrolment/civics compulsory?

That alone will dramatically increase the left wing voter base.

Also Free education/lower vote age/compulsory enrolment for people will make it VERY challenging for National to make tax cuts. Especially in this day and age.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Wonder will 'common sense' voting take a mauling and beating,at this years
General Election. Maybe,what kind of persons votes for potential Tax increases, masked in someting else with a different name ,yet still Tax increases ,unemployment and interest rate rises,as well as a massive attack on the backbone of NZs economy,the Farming Community. Maybe in NZ .Perhaps if the face suits,buy it,and let the consequences look after themselves.Sounds like famous last words.Only time will tell,not too far away.

Reply
Share
  • 3
  • 0

Maybe the 'backbone of the economy' needs a shake-up to match the 'clean green' image it currently tells porkies about.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 2

Urban folk should read a few rural mags, article last week stated towns discharged almost twice as much pollution be it storm water or sewerage. Auckland alone had 50 points of discharge that happens at frequent times. You can't blame farmers for the disgusting state of Aucklands poo littered beachs. Farmers are doing something about it time to look in the mirror.

Reply
Share
  • 4
  • 0

That's all very academic when you can't afford to buy a house,feed the kids, get care for your kids or mum and dad because of waiting lists or not much to look forward to for your kids etc etc
That is why Labour might win
Because National is out of touch and only looking after one section of the community
Labour are the Robin Hood for the people going uomagainst the unfair thieving king Arthur which is National.

It is very simple really
National has realised very late and started to throw money where it should be but people are asking why it took Ardern to force them to do that

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 1

Dont think you really know what you are ranting about. Over the last few weeks,you have made so many uneducated comments. Read someone who replied to another of your pie in the sky comments about joined at the hip Lie-bour/Green cabal. One correspondent said in answer to your biased comments. I think it went like this."Everyone is entitled to be stupid,but you abuse the privilege".

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 0

Calm-down Gareth. Pot kettle and all that.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

ACT offers teachers an interesting proposition. They have justification for voting for proper pay at the same time as ditching the Union saving membership fees (as Labour's Masters, one of several old school Unions, is a total con job ripping off members. they haven proven they would never seek to resolve its gullible members pay as it erodes their so-called worth).

Reply
Share
  • 5
  • 0

This election will come down to wether you are voting for yourself or your children / grandchildren as we have to do something about our environment because at the moment we are killing it. Self interest has to stop or we will end up going past the point of no return and hopefully no one wants that. And no I'm not a greenie I've been a nats voter for ever, but I'm thinking of changing. Hopefully Bill starts to change before I go past the point of no return, 1 week to go.

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 3

Yes ,when the biggest polluters India,China USA. do their bit for the environment. Only stupid people in NZ by attacking our Farmers and TAXING Agriculture ,only place in the world,is ideology gone mad. Yes all our future children deserve consideration,with your comments. Accusing Bill English of what. I dont think the crazy idea of killing the golden goose,or chickens to quote reality ,will help our Children. Infact sounds like your wish is for NZs economy and standard of well being,is to turn NZ into a third world economy. Wake up and smell the freah clean air.which we all enjoy.
Socialism and Communism mentality does not belong in NZ,they are hiding behind these called smoke screen of ETS excuse the pun.
Also maybe you will be much happier and in a feel good type of thinking,when NZs doors are opened wide to thousands and thousands of undocumented refugees. As ANGELA MERKEL did and is now suffering the consequences.Your comments blaming Bill English,for what. Keeping NZs in a positive state of well being and a strong economy.What part of that dont you want to understand or admit.

Reply
Share
  • 6
  • 0

Education clearly needs some investment.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

I've already jumped ship man. Come in the waters fine...

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Captain Taxinder will bring down the economy and tax us all to death. After death we will pay inheritance tax, capital gains tax.

Thirsty dont drink water because that will taxed!

Reply
Share
  • 3
  • 0

What a ridiculous comment Mark. I can only assume that you are trying to scaremonger like so many on the right. We are electing a government for a three year term, not in perpetuity.

I would like to see NZ return to its egalitarian roots; that's not communism, capitalism, neoliberalism or socialism. It's treating people fairly, taxing income including capital gain fairly and protecting the environment from rampant exploitation for short-term personal gain.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 2

Mark is 100% correct, Sarki, and all your spin and lies don't change that one little bit.

New Zealand never had egalitarian roots. I marvel at the fantasy world that you must inhabit. Like we all lived in some later day Shire full of happy dancing hobbits who loved each other very much and if only we could return to those golden days of yore, how happy we would be. What sentimental tosh.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

It's like this current lot of selfish boomers can't recall NZ's history of policies aimed at (for example) affordable housing - from which they themselves benefited so handsomely in the form of access to affordable housing.

I'd suggest an easy read: http://bwb.co.nz/books/home-truths

The "politics of envy" seems more apt for boomers, who after receiving the benefits of free education, affordable housing etc. from the taxes paid by their elders, lowered taxes on themselves and chose not to pass those things on...but rather than standing on their own two feet, their envy drives them to demand the wages of young Kiwis be docked and handed over to them when they're old too! Net negatives on society who benefit from the taxes of those preceding and following them. And they squeal like stuck pigs at the prospect of any changes that might affect them and redress the imbalance they've created.
(Edited)

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

I think ultimately people are seeing through these scaremongering tactics. Clearly the theme is that if you repeat untruths often enough people will come to believe them. But I think it has gone overboard and has now become counterproductive. Meanwhile what about intentions of some people to abolish the Commerce Commission, the RMA, all benefits including superannuation , all environmental safeguards, the minimum wage and remove any employer liability for healthand safety?

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Nothing to do with scaremongering. I well remember the negativity and envy of Helen and Cullen last time round. Taxes and interest rates through the roof, and the 'poor' were no better off. Short memories.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Short memories indeed.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Now is the time to vote ACT. We will make ACT great again!

Reply
Share
  • 3
  • 0

"make ACT great again"?? Pardon??
My reading of it is that Master Seymour has rescued ACT from the gut-hole of dead political parties, hosed it clean of the remnants of the light-weight lever pulling Keynesians clowns and replaced them with true, blue, open and honest laissez-faire policies.
Or I at least hope he has, alas me thinks maybe those lever pulling Keynesian clowns haven't really gone away but are hiding nearby, just waiting for Master Seymour to do the hard yards. Then back they'll come. *sigh*
BUT he has earned my party vote and he'll receive it.
Good luck Master Seymour, pity that you just can't buy anti-clown in a can like you can fly spray.

Reply
Share
  • 5
  • 0

It was a great pity that Jamie Whyte never got elected to parliament.

ACT is the only party that has NZ in a direction out of more government, more ministries and agencies and more social programs.
We want our citizens resilient, responsible and independent. Not government this and government that and thinking everyone owes them.

I certainly will be party vote ACT.

Reply
Share
  • 2
  • 0

It is a very good thing Jamie Whyte didn't get elected to Parliament. The reality is that his philosophy made ACT unelectable and would have sunk the party had he carried on. From his philosophical musings on the freedom to commit incest to replacing the RMA with the common law tort of nuisance, he demonstrated a complete lack of political instinct.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Lack of political instinct. We don't want politicians we want a leader. Theres a big difference.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

The leader has to be elected, therefore electable. In this country, extremist would-be politicians, at either end of the spectrum, tend not to be elected.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

The ways we do things in NZ are completely unsustainable. More and more welfare, more government departments, more trivial rules and regulations, more dependence on government.

We desperately need a leader. A politician only promotes policy for their future, never New Zealands.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

ACT. Another Con Trick.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Con Trick? Seems to me they are the only party who is clear where it stands.

Labour has changed their mind and made so many captain's calls I don't know where they are at
Greens.. well they were sunk as soon as Shaw supported MT.
NZ First... it will only do what works best for Winston.
National... run out of ideas... running on a very tired 'more of the same' campaign.

So.. other than a rather poor acronym.. what is your point?

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

I'm getting a bit sick of it all now. I'm only interested in watching the result on TV on election night to see how it goes, and then glad it's all over with.

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 0

Glad to see ACT up too... but the Conservatives at 1% is concerning. Surely that 1% could vote for some other flavour of conservative / right and not throw their vote away?

Reply
Share
  • 4
  • 0

Unfortunately, no. That party used to be a cult of personality centred on Colin Craig and was then decimated when the party descended into civil war in 2015. After which, it has quietly mouldered onward with a gormless replacement, and has lately been desperately calling for votes. Its voter share is definitely a wasted vote. It's not even registering in other polls, though, which is some cause for hope.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Added to which, while I was observing it in 2014, its policies seemed strikingly convergent with those of New Zealand First. At a guess, most of its former voters have decamped in that political direction.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

ACT is only doing what National is meant to do. Now we have National as virtually new labour.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Unfortunately young people who are "looking for change" have never experienced 10% unemployment, 20% interest rates and compulsory unionism.

Reply
Share
  • 7
  • 1

True. They've never experienced free tertiary education, affordable housing and a reliable health system either.

Reply
Share
  • 2
  • 4

The young don't tend to need as much health care as older people. Everyone pays eventually, it is just a matter or question of when. I suppose it depends on when you stop believing in santa clause. As you age you need the health system more, based on what you are saying you would think the elderly would vote differently if the health system is as bad as you suggest.

Reply
Share
  • 2
  • 0

The brains of the young are not fully developed, so forgive them, they know what they do

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

The minimum wage has effectively killed the free tertiary education. On the job training WAS the best learning of all.

Reply
Share
  • 2
  • 0

Free tertiary education is still available if you want to be an apprentice. And there is a training wage that is lower than the minimum wage, so employers don't pay the full minimum wage rate at the start.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Thank you Sarki B. I was not aware of that situation and nor will a lot of others.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Sure but housing affordability is a global issue as result of central banks setting interest rates at close to zero and printing money to prop up the world economy better than the alternative.. recession or even depression. Tax payers currently fund two thirds of tertiary education hard to argue they should fund any more not everyone needs a university degree. NZ healthcare rated 4 th best in the world in recent report on global comparisons, not so bad

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Unfortunately the Labor party leader has never experienced this either, but obviously her advisers still look backward with rose tinted glasses.

Reply
Share
  • 3
  • 1

Very true. As a friend of mine who grew up behind the iron curtain frequently points out, "the only people who support communism are those who've never had to live under it".

Reply
Share
  • 3
  • 1

A good and true point.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Don't worry. If they vote Labour they soon will!

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 1

One week to go until....
The real deals are done behind closed doors.
This one could drag on a bit I'm picking.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Good to see New Zealand First still riding high

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Greens gone and ACT with 2 or more MPs would be good, every ACT party vote counts.

I think the Blue Team has won over the media (after the NZBroadcasting Corporation Bombshell). But early voting is an abomination if parties are changing policy after voting opens ... I mean what kind of banana republic is that?

Reply
Share
  • 4
  • 0

If you look at the various possible combinations, it's quite possible The Maori party could be the king-maker.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Suck it up,The red machine is back
Yee ha

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 2

National will need to look at switching the life support off for Act after this election... this would be 3 elections with one MP.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 2

Did you not see the result of this poll - 2 MPs at least for Act! Go Act!

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

If labour wins it will be bad news for middle income earner as they are the back bone of NZ tax intake
If labour win middle income earner will be paying for all of labours give a ways
Labour say it will chase tax money from corporates
Good luck with that
If they keep on attacking middle income earners there will be in the future only rich and poor
In the end pay rises don't work because they cause goods and services to go up
Welfare increase just increase taxes and make those that work hard poorer
Tax cut are the only way as they don't affect goods and services and gives every one more money
Best solution no income tax increase gst then the rich who spend more on goods and service will contribute to society

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Too true. The Labour party are not the friend of the working class person anymore. Only the bums, that want handouts all the time.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

The real problem with Labour is that none of them, including Jacinda has ever had a real job or run a business.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

I don't see how ACT isn't more popular. It promotes everything that is great about the right (fiscal conservatism, free markets, individual responsibility etc...) while still being a socially liberal party. David Seymour is one of the best thinkers in NZ politics. Lets hope ACT can build on this momentum.

Reply
Share
  • 1
  • 1

At one time ACT could possibly have had 8-10 seats in Parliament. That is whats needed to be a game changer.
I hope your comments come true.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Millions of words that count for absolutely nothing.
The vote is all that will count....wet or fine will make a difference.
what sport is on for the day.....overseas voting....particually in Au will mak ea difference.
IE how did the government react to the AU govt locking up NZ's for nothing then exporting them.
So for all the polls...there is only one day that will count.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

I think the Q and A Sunday interviews will have changed the polling in favour of the Nats.Taxinda and the Greens were frightening and a worry to each other and Winnie was just a tad of oxidised paint.

Reply
Share
  • 0
  • 0

Post New comment or question

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

NZ Market Snapshot

Forex

Sym Price Change
USD 0.7018 0.0029 0.41%
AUD 0.9151 0.0034 0.37%
EUR 0.5960 0.0025 0.42%
GBP 0.5222 0.0019 0.37%
HKD 5.4853 0.0273 0.50%
JPY 78.8340 0.2830 0.36%

Commods

Commodity Price Change Time
Gold Index 1257.1 -3.460 2017-12-14T00:
Oil Brent 62.7 0.860 2017-12-14T00:
Oil Nymex 57.1 0.410 2017-12-14T00:
Silver Index 15.9 0.065 2017-12-14T00:

Indices

Symbol Open High Last %
NASDAQ 6887.4 6901.1 6875.8 -0.28%
DJI 24631.0 24672.5 24585.4 -0.31%