Key admits TPP odds now ‘very close to zero’

John Key (TVNZ)

Lance Wiggs says it will be very hard for Donald Trump to sign an sort of trade agreement

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There is “very close to zero” chance that President Obama will get the TPP ratified before he leaves office, Prime Minister John Key admitted today.

His government has previously held out hope that the Trans-Pacific Partnership would be passed during the so-called “lame-duck” session of Congress before the sitting president leaves office on January 20.

But this morning the PM said, "The probability of it passing in the lame duck period which is between now and January ... If it's not zero it's very close to zero.”

President-elect Donald Trump slammed the “horrible” TPP and free trade as a whole during the campaign, saying current trade deals cost American jobs. His protectionist stance was central to his successful appeal to working class voters in the so-called "rust-belt" states, and will presumably be a key plank in his re-election effort in four years' time, too.

But Mr Key holds out hope that some kind of revised trade deal could be negotiated with the US, saying Mr Trump is likely to take a more nuanced approach once in office.

Commentator Lance Wiggs disagrees, telling NBR Radio that after his anti-trade rhetoric in the rust-belt states, it will be difficult for the Republican to sign any trade deal.

The Republican-controlled Congress did pass legislation to speed TPP negotiations early last year, but during the campaign sentiment shifted – and in any case President Trump will be able to veto any ratification bill that does make it through.

The TPP, which took a full ten years to negotiate, requires ratification by countries representing 80% of GDP of original signatories to come into force. In practical terms, that means no US ratification, no TPP.

New Zealand’s TPP-enabling legislation – which now seems doomed to be a footnote for the textbooks – has passed its second reading and is now in a committee stage ahead of its third and final vote.

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Donald Trump needs a win on the TPP. He says it's a lousy deal - although I doubt that he has actually read it. He's not anti-trade at all, that myth needs to be dispelled immediately. What Trump needs to be able to do is to renegotiate parts of the TPP so he can get up in front of the American people and say I have renegotiated the TPP. It was a lousy deal but now I have made it a great deal. It will be fantastic for America. The other parties to the TPP need to find a way to let him do that - within reason of course. But this time, it may pay to keep Japan out of it.

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  • 0 ... New Zealand Ambassador in Washington Tim Groser is going to have to work quite hard ... Jacobi said pulling back from the deal would be a complicated move and badly let down 11 allies. ...

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The trade deal is was 3 months ago but Key insisted it had every chance of passing through Obama desk.
Key needs to wake up and fast or is long gone.
We do not want any more trade deals and no more emigration.
Enough is enough.
We can not even use the motorways we have paid for because they are choked up with emigrants going to the welfare office so they can purchase more crap made in China..
Wake up New Zealand before we all go down the drainhole.

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What we need is more immigrants to emigrate, I know lets get Labour back in.

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Oops hope Key has no banked this opportunit already.

Trump may offer a watered down TPP but hearing last night putting US first maybe not. This is a wake up call for us all put your country first, we have not and hence why China is so powerful.

Family Country God

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The Trump victory is excellent news for America in that they can now start repairing the damage done by eight years of ruinous management by Obama and Clinton.
What we will have to watch is that we do not allow in the many losers who supported Clinton and are now looking for a bolt hole.

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