Key warns over polls as survey shows Nats' lead widening

Prime Minister John Key is warning about over-confidence as yet another poll shows his party with a big lead over Labour.

Mr Key warned on Breakfast this morning that his party was in an even stronger poll position before the 2011 election, where National got 47.31% of the vote to the Labour-Green-NZ First bloc's 45.13%

"If you look at the polls back in 2011, actually we were very slightly ahead of that if you look at all of the polls overall

A OneNews-Colmar Brunton poll released last night (top right) showed National up 2 points to 52%, Labour falling 1 to 28%, the Greens down 2 to 10% and NZ First on 4%. All other parties were within the margin of error. 

In the preferred PM stakes, Mr Key was up 1 to 48%, Labour leader David Cunliffe down 2% to 8%.

All of the major polls exaggerated National's lead in the build-up to the 2011 election (including the final Fairfax poll, which had the party on 54%), while three of the big polls underestimated Labour (including Roy Morgan, whose final poll put the party on 23%). NZ First support was also underestimated in half the surveys.

Mr Key seemed to rule out a deal for the Conservatives during his Breakfast interview, saying, "In the end there are many candidates who go out there and say look ‘It’s two ticks blue’ and that’s great if they want to do that. But there may be  a few electorates like Ohariu and Epsom where they may say it makes sense go give a bit of support to ACT or United to just get them over the line

He conspicuously left out East Coast Bays, and when this was pointed out replied, "We’re certainly going to run a candidate there which is Murray McCully of course."

Mr Key said he'll give more guidance on whom National will have an MMP "accommodation" with, or not, at his post-cabinet press conference around 4pm today.

National's list, released over the weekend, strongly pointed to Epsom and Ohariu deals to shore up ACT and UnitedFuture's sole MPs.

National's Ohariu candidate Brett Hudson, at 39 on the list, was the highest-ranked non-MP, and ahead of incumbents including Maggie Barry, Ian McKelvie and Mark Mitchell.

The party's dupe candidate in Epsom, Paul Goldsmith, was promoted from 39 to 30.

National's inhouse polling is said to have shown a deal with Colin Craig would cost the party 2% to 3% of its list vote as socially liberal supporters defect. The Conservatives are currently polling around 1% to 2%, not enough to offset National's potential hit.

Click to zoom. Source: Colmar Brunton

RAW DATA: National's full list
  • John Key Helensville
  • Bill English List
  • David Carter List
  • Gerry Brownlee Ilam
  • Steven Joyce List
  • Judith Collins Papakura
  • Hekia Parata Mana
  • Chris Finlayson Rongotai
  • Paula Bennett Upper Harbour
  • Jonathan Coleman Northcote
  • Murray McCully East Coast Bays
  • Anne Tolley East Coast
  • Nick Smith Nelson
  • Tim Groser New Lynn
  • Amy Adams Selwyn
  • Nathan Guy Otaki
  • Craig Foss Tukituki
  • Simon Bridges Tauranga
  • Nikki Kaye Auckland Central
  • Michael Woodhouse Dunedin North
  • Jo Goodhew Rangitata
  • Chester Borrows Whanganui
  • Todd McClay Rotorua
  • Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga Maungakiekie
  • Nicky Wagner Christchurch Central
  • Lindsay Tisch Waikato
  • Louise Upston Taupo
  • Tim Macindoe Hamilton West
  • Jami-Lee Ross Botany
  • Paul Goldsmith Epsom
  • Melissa Lee Mt Albert
  • Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Manukau East
  • Jian Yang List
  • Alfred Ngaro Te Atatu
  • Maurice Williamson Pakuranga
  • Jacqui Dean Waitaki
  • David Bennett Hamilton East
  • Jonathan Young New Plymouth
  • Brett Hudson Ohariu
  • Maggie Barry North Shore
  • Ian McKelvie Rangitikei
  • Mark Mitchell Rodney
  • Simon O'Connor Tamaki
  • Mike Sabin Northland
  • Scott Simpson Coromandel
  • Paul Foster-Bell Wellington Central
  • Joanne Hayes Christchurch East
  • Parmjeet Parmar Mt Roskill
  • Chris Bishop Hutt South
  • Nuk Korako Port Hills
  • Jono Naylor Palmerston North
  • Maureen Pugh West Coast - Tasman
  • Misa Fia Turner Mangere
  • Todd Barclay Clutha-Southland
  • Andrew Bayly Hunua
  • Matt Doocey Waimakariri
  • Sarah Dowie Invercargill
  • Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country
  • Todd Muller Bay of Plenty
  • Shane Reti Whangarei
  • Alastair Scott Wairarapa
  • Stuart Smith Kaikoura
  • Wayne Walford Napier
  • Simeon Brown Manurewa
  • Hamish Walker Dunedin South
  • Lewis Holden Rimutaka
  • Karl Varley Wigram
  • Candidate TBA Kelston
  • Linda Cooper List
  • Letitia O'Dwyer List
  • Mark Bridges List
  • Boris Sokratov List
  • Matthew Evetts List
  • Carolyn O'Fallon List
  • Christopher Penk List


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