Kiwi punter picks 7-1 Germany-Brazil score line

Remarkably a Kiwi punter picked this morning's 7-1 Germany-Brazil scoreliine in today's Fifa World Cup semi-final, the TAB's Mark Stafford tells NBR.

The person placed a modest $2 bet at 250:1, meaning they pocketed $500 from this morning's massacre. 

9700 others took a gamble on the exact score without success.

The largest win from the tournament so far is $100,000 for a punter who spent $40 correctly picking the half time score in three separate matches, Mr Stafford says.

The largest loss is $110,000 from someone who bet that Germany would beat Algeria in regulation time in their knock-out phase clash (Germany did win, but not until extra time).

The TAB challenge to win $5 million by correctly picking the result of all 64 World Cup games has also been a wipeout for punters (unsurprisingly for those who read NBR's preview).

Mr Stafford says by game 13, the tipping competition's 33,360 entrants had been winnowed down to six — none of whom correctly picked the game 13 result.

Here's how the lesson in statistical improbability unfolded:

  • Game 1, Brazil 3-1 Croatia: 6763 eliminated/26,867 live
  • Game 2, Mexico 1-0 Cameroon: 11,179 eliminated/15,688 live
  • Game 3, Spain 1-5 Netherlands: 13,897 eliminated/1,791 live
  • Game 4, Chile 3-1 Australia: 684 eliminated/1,107 live
  • Game 5, Colombia 3-0 Greece: 523 eliminated/584 live
  • Game 6, Uruguay 1-3 Costa Rica: 531 eliminated/55 live
  • Game 7, England 1-2 Italy: 25 eliminated/30 live
  • Game 8, Ivory Coast 2-1 Japan: 16 eliminated/14 live
  • Game 9, Switzerland v Ecuador 2-1: 8 Eliminated/6 live
  • Game 10, France v Honduras 3-0: 0 Eliminated/6 live
  • Game 11, Argentina v Bosnia 2-1: 0 Eliminated/6 live
  • Game 12, Germany v Portugal 4-0: 0 Eliminated/6 live
  • Game 13, Iran v Nigeria 0-0: 6 Eliminated/ 0 live 

So far around $27 million has been wagered with the TAB on the 2014 Fifa World Cup, compared to around $23 million four years ago and far eclipsing the Rugby World Cup (which Mr Stafford puts down to the soccer World Cup having more games, and more countries competing).

Football NZ gets a slice of the action, and should receive around $500,000 at the end of the tournament.

Around $1 million was bet on this morning's semi-final. The result may have left punters a little shell-shocked. Mr Stafford says so far only around $100,000 has been wagered on tomorrow's second semi-final, which will see the Netherlands (paying $2.90) take on Argentina (the favourites at $2.40).

Germany is the favourite to win the final, paying $1.65, while Argentina's odds are $3.70 and the Netherlands $4.50.

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