Latest Truckometer has good economic news

The latest Truckometer report shows growth in the New Zealand economy will continue. 

The latest Truckometer report confirms the lift in economic momentum is real and will persist, ANZ says.

Both Truckometer indexes consolidated in August after large rises in July, and seasonal adjustments.

The Heavy Traffic Index – which shows a strong contemporaneous relationship to GDP - held its gains in August, falling just 1.5% after seasonal adjustments. This follows a 10% jump in the index in July.

ANZ says the upward trend in the Heavy Traffic Index is now definitive, boding well for GDP over coming months.

“Drought-related timing impacts may be causing some volatility in economic outturns and dataflow, but stepping back the assertive upward trend is good news about the economy’s underlying vibe.”

Heavy traffic flows on eight of the 11 roads in the index fell in August.

The Light Traffic Index - which predicts GDP growth six months ahead- fell 0.3% after rising 0.8% in July.

While the trend in this series is upward, the rate of increase is slowing. Light traffic rose on five roads and fell on five.

ANZ says the index suggests the current lift in economic momentum will persist over the second half of this year and into the next.

The trend in this index is now nearly back at its pre-recession peak.

ANZ says while this indicator is predicting three quarters of solid GDP growth for the remainder of the year, it captures base economic momentum and drought impacts need to be added on. 

vyoung@nbr.co.nz