National takes a hit in Roy Morgan poll

Prime Minister Bill English

The National Party has taken a 4.5 percentage point hit since the departure of former Prime Minister John Key on December 5 but the Labour Party continues to poll below 30% despite a 5.5 percentage point jump in support, according to a regularly volatile opinion poll conducted by Australian pollster Roy Morgan.

In the month since the previous Roy Morgan poll, which put National at 50% and Labour on 23%, National has dropped to 45.5% support and Labour jumped to 28.5 percent. Combined with the Greens, unchanged at 14.5%, a centre-left coalition commands 43% support, just short of National.

Winston Peters' New Zealand First party was down half a point to 7.5% support.

The poll may not capture the full impact of the change as the sample of 872 landline and mobile telephone users started on November 28, a week before Mr Key resigned and covering Labour's trouncing of National in the Mt Roskill by-election, on December 3. It ended on December 11. Of all electors surveyed 5.5%, down one point, didn't name a party.

The Roy Morgan poll is the first long time series poll to come out since Fairfax Media did a snap poll on the evening of December 5, just after Key announced he was leaving politics, leading to his replacement by Bill English and the appointment of a new cabinet last weekend.

"If a New Zealand election were held now, the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be a very close result," the polling agency said.

Among the government's three support partners, the Maori Party slipped half a point to 1% support, Act fell half a point to 0.5% and there was no measured support for United Future.

Roy Morgan also measured a hit to the government confidence rating, which fell 10 points to 131. New Zealanders saying the country was "heading in the right direction" fell 6.5 percentage points to 58.5% while pessimists rose by 3.5 percentage points to 27.%.

(BusinessDesk)


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I'm not particularly a fan of Bill English, but neither am I of Roy Morgan - whose polls have taken some random, silly swings over the past 12 months. And one poll does not make a trend at the best of times.

The real fun will begin in the first few months of 2017 when we start to get a flow of preferred prime minister ratings for Bill English (Roy Morgan doesn't include one). If National dips, even slightly, his preferred PM rating could become a pain point for English. 

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Unless you're into stargazing -- and Ouji boards -- you have to take these polls as no more than just someone's opinion. Remember, the pollsters were found to be 'men of straw' when it came to Brexit and the Presidential elections.

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Agree but that could also mean National is under 45% - not back above it

If that is the case then National has a huge problem without John Key - regardless of how average Andrew Little might be.

John Key gave Bill English a hospital pass - no question. Key used his trader instinct and sold his position - probably also why he left within a week which is unheard of - so that he could leave on record high polling which stoked his ego

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"Key used his trader instinct and sold his position".
Yep. And I'm betting, Key's shorting English and going long on Little.

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Key finally read the trend, people are fed up with failure to address RMA, council incompetence, unlimited home purchases by Chinese ( because they can and are allowed to do) from aunty Helen's trade deal with China , granting most favoured nation status, whilst at the same time taking his eye off the ball by chasing another not free trade deal TPPA. After evidence from Brexit and Trump smashing all liberal pollers newspapers, Key saw the unmistakable, he would have to work with Winston, something he was understandably not prepared to accept, so he called it a day. And under dumb MMP, no one worth their salt would waste theit precious time any further under such a stupid system guaranteeing mediocrity in perpetuity.

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Oh,Oh so true

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I think this is true.

Even people who have seen their paper wealth (family home) increase to over a million dollars are recognising their children will never have the same opportunities they had, while at the same time their children will bear the tax burden that's coming home to roost soon from pensions, foreign parents being imported and dumped onto welfare, free medical care, and the pension, and NZers being increasingly losing access to NZ's homes.

And now we're recognising we've only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to immigration fraud in education, exploitation in agriculture and hospitality, leaky and shoddy apartment builds - even the premium ones (hardly an option you want your child to buy) - and declining services per capita.

It's all fine if you only have one child to leave your house too...but if you've got two or three then even the inheritance model isn't enough to help the next generations.

I think more and more people are recognising things have gone on long enough as they are. We're not leaving a great lot to the next generations.

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The Roy Morgan poll bounces all over the place. If National is below 50%, which I highly doubt, in any of the normal polls then we have a real problem.

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Morgan Poll always has Nats 3%/5% below other polls so no surprise. Methinks Morgan polls in strong Labour seats.

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National and the Reserve banks decision has shafted its core base of home owners who have seen the Barfoot auction funeral room results and shifted to Labour or undecided no vote.

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