National a point ahead of Lab/Green bloc in Newshub poll

A lot closer than a month ago but maybe no cigar

Abandoning its upbeat joggers ad in favour of a negative "Let's tax this" clip, and pushing the boundaries around the "fiscal hole" appears to have worked for National against the relentlessly positive but sometimes vague Jacinda Ardern.

But given the MMP environment, the race is still very tight.

The final major poll of the election cycle, from Newshub-Reid Researc,h has National (45.8%) maintaining a solid lead over Labour but only a point ahead of the combined Labour-Greens bloc on 44.4% (scroll down for charts).

And after a rollercoaster few weeks, things, the bottom line remains the same: NZ First as kingmaker.

NZ First leader Winston Peters has indicated he will talk to the party with the largest percentage of the vote first "by convention."

But Otago University law professor Andrew Geddis says the only rule that applies is getting to a 61-vote majority; Mr Peters could talk to whomever he likes after results come in on Saturday, in any order.

Tonight's Newshub-Reid Research poll also saw it fall back into sync with the rival 1 News-Colmar Burnton survey after the two diverged last week.

Newshub's results:

And here's 1 News-Colmar Brunton's take from last night:

Translated into seats, last night's 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll would give National 58 and its allies ACT and the Maori Party one each for a total of 60.

The total size of the new parliament will depend on overhang but 61 will be the bare minimum required for a majority.

That would mean National would have to run to NZ First (six seats). Labour would have 46 and the Greens nine seats according to Colmar Brunton's result.

Both polls were released against the backdrop of heavy advance voting. Just under one in three registered voters has cast an early ballot.

And here's RNZ's final poll-of-polls:

Read an analysis of how final-week polls compared to the actual 2014 election day result here.


15 · Got a question about this story? Leave it in Comments & Questions below.


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15 Comments & Questions

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If Saturday's result matches the last 2 polls then it's time to get rid of the current version MMP. Too often it produces the very opposite of accountability.

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You'd guess this would be the last election for Winston ( and New Zesland First ) - he'll be 75 and a half next time.

If he is kingmaker I'm guessing the coronation is going to take a while - time to settle some scores..,..

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In my assessment rebuilding the current Northland Railway could not be justified as the rail route is very indirect ( it essentially runs backwards past Wellsford) taking 145 miles to get to Whangarei or 150 to Marsden point) presumably some port access with remain at Auckland and Tauranga is ideal for rail access. Reopening the Stratford - Taurmaranui line to link in New Plymouth port and the Hawera oil basin area would also be much more sensible and affordable. The two alternative routes through the North Island the NIMT and the route from Taurmaranui via Taranaki to Wellington were both required to move maximum tonnage during the Wisconsin Central CNR interregum and even for the wide Silver Star express train of the 1970s both routes loading gauge were widened to take the 9ft /9inch carriage width riding on 3/6 rails.
My own view is the current Northland system like the railways south of Ashburton would probably be better confined to tourist steam trains moving a few freight wagons on the back of the consist.

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The 5% threshold should be reduced to 2% as a completely new political party has never managed to get into parliament. Let alone be part of a government. All of the current minor parties are the result of various splinter groups and mergers dating back from the FPP days.

When National / act and Labour / greens get close in the polls, they sap support from the minor parties. So we end up with the equivalent of FPP again. The only other scenario is National and Labour forming a grand coalition like in Germany. Then the minor parties will get a lot more support. I would much prefer simply lowering the threshold though.

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No all this does is to increase the grand standing of tiny fractions and would simply result in more instability throughout the term. It would see even more status quo decisions, conservative and take no risks. Let Government's govern don't allow every tiny group to block everything

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Nah, it's bad enough we have a single digit party basically determining government (and hardly a shining light for democracy) let alone reducing the threshold even further to enable the whackos to get in.

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Based on this poll, if translated into the Election result, it would be a travesty if National was not permitted to implement a Government with NZ First (unless Winston drops below 5%). We,ll soon know...

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I thought Jacinda told us in the last debate not to lump Labour in with the Greens?

The irony of Jacindamania is that Jacinda could end up being the shortest serving Labour leader if they move to a different leader post-election (7th leader since 2011). Wikipedia kindly informs me David Parker did 1 month, 20 days in 2014, and Jacinda has currently done 31 days.

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I assume the thousands of homeless sleeping in cars and outside shop doors are excluded from voting. Once we excluded all women but now we exclude both men & women from voting who have no fixed address; often from no fault of their own. Is that fair? Their voice & vote should be heard in a true democracy!

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No wonder National's not too worried about the housing crisis.

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Do the polls already compensate for historical voter turnout per age group? I presume so if they try to predict the actual result.

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The Opportunities Party definitely deserve a seat at the table - but people are put off voting for them because of the 5% threshold. Despite Gareth Morgan's lack of charisma, they have some really interesting and worthy policies. For example, they appear to be the only party which is looking to effect the recommendations of the Tax Working Group (a panel of NZ and international tax experts). We need to broaden the tax base and lower income tax. Current scenario is completely broken.

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Agree it would be good to have TOP there.

I don't think we can expect anything much from National given they're a party of property investors with over 3 houses per person, and they're enjoying the absolutely premium mix of both tax-free wealth gains on their portfolio plus socialism for life on the taxpayer.

They will never do anything that might impact their own wealth but help generations of Kiwis.

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Gareth and his moustache need to be kept well away from the reins of power. I wouldn't trust him with scissors let alone actual political power.

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I have great difficulty in believing the Colmar Brunton polls if, as they seem to say, they still rely on landlines. The only time in history when this might have been valid might have been about 20 years ago when "everyone" had a landline and no-one yet had a cellphone or a smartphone.

Landline-based sampling runs into the obvious flaw that it favours the voting demographics of the landline owners. In New Zealand today, the rapidly dwindling ranks of landline owners strongly favour the elderly and they, in turn, strongly favour National and New Zealand First.

The folly of using landlines for sampling was already apparent in 1948 in the USA when predominently landline owning Republicans indicated strong support for their presendential candidate, Thomas Dewey, over sitting President Harry Truman. One of the most famous photographs in history is that of the just re-elected Truman posing with the headline of the Chicago Daily Tribune that had "jumped the gun" and splashed "Dewey Defeats Truman" over its early edition.

Now replacing my analytical hat with a more speculative one, I'd say that tomorrow's result will show greater support for Labour than the Colmar Brunton polls indicate. That may be because the weather looks like being OK and the "Youth-Quake" might happen after all. Younger people, with their overwhelming use of smartphones may yet prove to be the "great unsampled majority" that decides the election.

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