NZ POLITICS DAILY: GFC hangover will last a generation – English

Bill English

The National Party’s annual conference at the weekend will not go down in political history, being a fairly dull affair.

So while there was yesterday plenty of commentary and analysis about it, and the party itself, the focus will quickly move on and the weekend’s various pronouncements will soon be forgotten.

It's reflective of this that one of the most interesting things to come out of the conference is an amusing set of images up on the Herald website – see: The new faces of the National Government – especially this unfortunate image of John Key.

Jane Clifton also manages to capture the mood of the conference in her analysis, National Party conference a shot of anti-depressant. She says the party has plenty to be angry, anxious or depressed about, but instead it’s in a state of "genial serenity".

Newstalk ZB’s Felix Marwick also summed it up nicely, saying the "weekend effort was safe, steady, but not exactly inspiring" (National Party's weekend conference). 

Annual conferences are a time for parties to take stock, reconfigure and project their vision for the future.
Not a lot of that seemed to happen in the weekend. There was certainly no positive vision for the future of New Zealand.
In fact, the most interesting and significant statement to come out of the conference was Finance Minister Bill English’s dour announcement that the hangover from the global financial crisis will continue for a generation: "The global economy is the dark cloud on the horizon and it's not going away for a generation, certainly 15 or 20 years anyway" – see: Duncan Garner’s National outlines welfare reforms.  
This is sobering stuff and points to the real reason that this is a government without much positive or dynamic to say or project as a vision. We really are under the yoke of austerity conditions, and this prevents governments and political parties from having many policy options or the ability to do adventurous and radical things. 
The weekend’s single best item focusing on the state of the National Party was Tracy Watkins’ Punch-drunk but not on the ropes.
She catalogs National’s failings, but also looks at how things might or might not improve. She discusses the prospects of National doing a U-turn on asset sales, with comments from Matthew Hooton and David Farrar that a backdown is virtually impossible, especially because of the fiscal consequences of losing the proceeds from the sales.
Watkins says that for National, re-election in 2014 is all about the economy, and by 2014 all of the more unpopular policies will be bedded down and forgotten, with some sign of economic progress achieved. 
A second piece by Watkins (National's respite from the storm), also pushes the line that economics are central to National’s electoral vision: "In an election that will boil down to one issue: economic credibility. The view is voters will stomach unpopular policies, so long as they can see there are runs on the board and agree the government is on the right track. 
"If that explains the contradiction between polls showing National's support mostly holding up despite overwhelming opposition to its partial asset sales plan." 
This item also puts forward Hooton’s argument that National will be saved in 2014 by Winston Peters and Colin Craig. But these analyses should be read alongside the blogpost on The Standard, What the polls actually show, which challenges the idea that National isn’t being hurt in the polls.
Fran O’Sullivan also surveys the state of the National Party, and says that adding to all of National’s woes are two "intergenerational timebombs": housing affordability and superannuation affordability. There are options for dealing with both problems, she says – see: Winners are grinners and Key's smiling
The biggest announcement over the weekend was John Key providing further details of the partial privatisation of Mighty River Power – see Audrey Young’s All asset sales to have loyalty bonus.
However, nothing in this that was particularly surprising or new. It was interesting to see National continuing to push the "mum and dad" investor element so strongly.
This is smart stuff. It relates to the most likable component of the agenda, and one that allays many peoples’ fears about the asset sales – especially the idea that they will be sold off to big overseas corporates.
John Key’s continued reiteration of small New Zealand investors being at the front of the queue – together with the policy detail to back it up – will resonate with many in middle New Zealand (even those that have no interest or ability in buying shares). 
Other notable announcements concerned further welfare reform and a push to speed up the search for oil and gas – see Audrey Young’s Bennett increases pursuit of welfare 'rorts'. There is a boldness in both of these, but mostly they are "more of the same". What is valuable about them for National, is that they show National on the front foot.
In these areas they are not reacting to events and other political actors, but pushing their own programme. John Armstrong says that this is about National’s new mantra of "getting on with the job" – see: Thin protests confirm Nats' faith.
This is an observation also made in Tracy Watkins’ Damp protest shows heat gone from asset sales fire. She says the government is insisting that there will be "No more tip-toeing around. That is the clear message from National's annual conference, where the government's economic programme has been invested with a new sense of urgency".
See also, Watkins’ Hardline Key to rivals: Bring it on
Many commentators drew attention to the small scale of the protests outside of the conference venue. Armstrong says "National's annual conference was not short of protests. But the protests were embarrassingly short of protesters" and "it may well have been counter-productive".
Watkins says that "if ever the government needed reassurance the heat had gone out of the asset sales debate, it came with the tired protest by the handful of familiar old faces outside SkyCity". She concludes that National "may not have won the argument over asset sales – but it has won resigned acceptance".
And long-time socialist activist Don Franks argues that the political left need to accept that the numbers and "political weight" of the protests were "pitiful" and that the cause of the left is not advanced through exaggerating or ignoring such realities – see: National Party Conference protests – when will we stop kidding ourselves?
Other important or interesting political items yesterday include:
  • On the issue of water rights and asset sales, John Armstrong has put forward an insightful commentary – see: For dignity's sake Key won't budge on sales. Armstrong emphasises that in finding a solution to the dispute, "Negotiation, not legislation, will be National Party's preference". He also raises doubts about the likelihood of a High Court injunction to the asset sales on the back of the Waitangi Tribunal’s decision. The whole dispute now raises important issues, Armstrong says, about the ability of the Maori Council and Waitangi Tribunal denying "the government's right to exercise power". In the end, Armstrong says it’s Maoridom that is potentially being damaged by the tactics of the Maori Council.
  • Matthew Hooton sees the National Government as benefiting from the water rights stoush, because it has "reframed the issue so that opposition to the MOM is confused with support for the Waitangi Tribunal claim for ownership of water" – see: Maori Council and Labour make Key ‘Lucky John’. Arguably, this is the reason why street protests against partial privatisation have diminished. Hooton also points out that "that Mr Key and Mr Shearer now have identical positions on every aspect of the water rights issue". 
  • Mick Strack, a lecturer in land tenure at the University of Otago, says that "the fact Maori are putting their oar in the water here and saying taihoa is essentially protecting that common interest in the water for us all" – see: History repeating itself in water debate. Commentator Dion Tuuta says the debate should really be about whether Maori have decision-making powers over water resources rather than "ownership". And he laments that the "Maori Council has turned a serious issue regarding the control of decision-making over water into a tactic to halt the sale of a few old under-performing state-owned assets" – see: Water focus should be on who makes decisions. And Tariana Turia explains that although there are tensions in the government coalition around water rights and ownership ("You say water, we say wai") she believes that its more important to stay in partnership with National – see: Relationship with water pivotal
  • But according to Paul Little, the Labour Party’s Long, slow death is inevitable. He puts this down to the fact that although there might still be a need for a workers party, Labour policies still amount to a "watered-down free-market philosophy that is no different from the guiding principles" of National. He reckons Labour has rested on its laurels while the "Green Party has emerged as a credible alternative, with credible leadership, competent MPs and policies worth considering".  
  • The Herald on Sunday’s editorial is scathing about the alcohol and tobacco industries’ attempts to defend their interests – see: Liquor and tobacco fight back. But in the same publication, Paul Thomas worries about the disproportionate cost forced on the poor – see: Peters gets it right on tobacco price hike. Thomas also highlights the ‘crassness’ of Maori Party vice-president Ken Mair’s statement that "from our point of view the real terrorists in this country are the tobacco companies". Meanwhile, Danya Levy reports, Total smoking ban too difficult – Key
  • The political debate about secularism and religion in state schools is getting some traction at the moment. Dave Armstrong weighs in today, arguing in favour of "religious studies" but not Christian education – see: Should we teach religion in schools?. He also asks, provocatively, "Do Anglicans still actually believe in God?"
Bryce Edwards
Today’s content:

National Party
Audrey Young (Herald): All asset sales to have loyalty bonus
Tracy Watkins (Stuff): $1000 to buy a share of NZ
Water rights and asset sales
Peter Wilson (Newswire): Peace achieved with no winners or losers
Tariana Turia (Press): Relationship with water pivotal
Karla Akuhata (Microwave): Oh, Tuku?
Denis Welch (Opposable thumb): We the people
Dion Tuuta (Taranaki Daily News): Water focus should be on who makes decisions
Labour Party
Patrick Leyland (The Progress Report): Labour’s Organisational Review – Building Support
Mark Blackham (Political Business): Labour changes the ditchwater
Paul Little (Herald): Long, slow death is inevitable
Cigarettes and Alcohol
Herald on Sunday: Editorial - Liquor and tobacco fight back
Martin Johnston and APNZ: Smokes to go under cover from today
Jim Doyle (Dom Post): Our education system is not working
Dave Armstrong (Dom Post): Should we teach religion in schools?
Nick Smith and 'Money for mates'
Andrea Vance (Stuff): 'Money for mates' claim
Matthew LIttlewood (Timaru Herald): 'Silly' Mackenzie work sets policy
Claire Browning (Pundit): Mackenzie developments, and Trust
Population issues
Bernard Hickey (Herald): Methinks boomers protest too much
Greg Ninness (Stuff): Funding required for new housing
Rodney Hide (Herald): Brown does more with less
Yvonne Tahana (Herald): Youngsters change shape of te reo Maori
Tony Wall (Stuff): 'Corrupt office' in on scam
Matt Nippert (Stuff): Bill will make scams harder
Rob O’Neill (Stuff): The great divide
Rachel Stewart (Waikato Times): Fishing industry's response smacks of hypocrisy
Mark Blackham (Political Business): Lapel politics













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"..... and this prevents governments and political parties from having many policy options or the ability to do adventurous and radical things."
Damn shame that it takes a global financial crisis to get sensible and responsible governance.
But, there you go.

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sensible and responsible governance is what NZ does not have now! With a 'short time' trader leading a policy defunct party (more intent on staying in power), it is ismply 'reacting' in the 'least negative way as possible. Trinkets are given handed out to 'mates' (directorships, grants & gongs), with the 'leader busy trying to meet as many world leaders as possible, whilst the middle class gets further and further behind (in OECD terms). I wonder what historians will make of this intellectually deficienct government of Key's and with a moral basis of how much can we stay in power fro another terms.

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John Key is testamony to not having the intellectual-smarts to succeed as a banker and/or a politician; you just need guile with a smile.

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Regrettably your comment is testimony to not needing any intellectual smarts in order to denigrate a tall poppy.

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IMHO the GFC hangover will last until the Euro submits to reality. So long as lenders cling to the illusion that the money they lent to the PIIGS is not already lost, the PIIGS cling to the illusion that they can continue to live on borrowed money and politicians and bureaucrats cling to the illusion that their EU empire is somehow sustainable the GFC will drag on in Europe and depress the rest of the world.

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"" We really are under the yoke of austerity conditions, and this prevents governments and political parties from having many policy options or the ability to do adventurous and radical things. ""

No mention of the choking yoke of MMP upon our country's future.

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Having been in business for myself for 35 years I have never known New Zealand not to be in a recession apart from the odd Auckland Property bubble, so whats new?

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I'm glad that the Government will be in place to check Len Brown's Amitai Etzioni style Communitarianism i.e. a synthesis of capitalism and socialism. Local government is the soft vulnerable underbelly for all kinds of international treaty sourced (Agenda 21) interference in sovereign Kiwi affairs such as high density housing, restrictions on where to live, work and play over the next few years and what we can no longer do if we own a rural property.

I note that Jim Diers from Seattle is going to be in NZ in August teaching Asset Based Community Development to Auckland Super City staff and local sustainable neighbourhood groups. He's great at creating fractious communities!

Why is Auckland Council using ratepayers money to get a self-confessed Alinsky-community organiser to teach Council how to set up sock-puppet 'faux' community groups with Auckland Council facilitators leading same to a preordained consensus in 'what needs to be done in our community'. This Delphi technique manufactured consensus stuff is really rearing it's head in Auckland at the moment. One suspects that Penny Hulse's former position at Waitakere Council, where they signed an MOU with ICLEI, is one reason.

Given ABCD is all about high density housing, sock puppet community groups and ultimately an attack on single family neighbourhoods and homes why are we allowing Auckland Council to use our rates to consult with those who are against us.

Good to see a National Government protecting us from the Internationalist enrtyists in local government!

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