Predictions market says Maori Party will be kingmaker

The Maori Party will hold the balance of power after next year's general election, if online predictions market iPredict Ltd is correct.

Owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University, iPredict enables users to trade on their predictions on a broad range of future political and business events that pay real money if their prediction comes true.

According to its weekly snapshot iPredict found the Maori Party would be kingmaker between Labour and National after the 2011 general election.

Forecast party vote shares were: National 43.8 percent (down from 45 percent last week), Labour 35.4 percent (steady), Greens 8.3 percent (up from 7.6 percent last week), New Zealand First 4.1 percent (up from 3.9 percent last week), Maori Party 3.1 percent (down from 3.4 percent last week), Act 2.3 percent (steady) and United Future 0.4 percent (down from 1.0 percent last week).

Several key electorate races would be close.

Act would be in Parliament because leader Rodney Hide was favoured to win Epsom. He had a 52 percent probability of retaining the seat.

United Future Leader Peter Dunne was not forecast to be re-elected in Ohariu, where National was favoured with 37 percent probability. Mr Dunne and Labour both had 32 percent probability of winning the seat.

The Maori Party could get another seat with candidate Na Rongowhakaata Raihania having a 52 percent probability of winning the Ikaroa-Rawhiti electorate.

Based on the data National would have 56 MPs, Labour 46, Greens 11, Maori Party 6 and Act 3. There would be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply.

National and Act would have a combined 59 MPs and Labour and the Greens a combined 57 MPs.

National nor Labour could govern without the support of the Maori Party but if it abstained on confidence and supply National and Act could govern.

The closest a combination of parties could come to forming a government without the Maori Party would be National, Act and United Future, with a combined 60 seats in a 121-seat Parliament under the assumptions Act won Epsom, United Future won Ohariu and the Maori Party lost Ikaroa-Rawhiti, iPredict said.

When the snapshot was taken, the market expected Labour to win Saturday's Mana by-election (92 percent probability) with 47 percent of the vote, followed by National with 35 percent of the vote.


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15 Comments & Questions

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Bring on Winston Peters

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Another reason to get the hell outta NZ.

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Just imagine.

Half our adult population on welfare, no reduction in the massive government section of our economy, debt levels approaching Portugal and the PIGS, the highest prison population per capita outside the US, all our skilled gogetters in Australia and beyond and the Maori party pulling the strings.

I shudder at the very real possibility of this being the New Zealand scenario.

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So True Barry @ 04.43.
NZ electors have about 12 months to come to their senses!!!!
Oh dear, Just saw a pink pig fly by.

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Mr Key, the honeymoon is over - If you want to stay in power you require policies, not jokes nor rhetoric!

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The Maori party have only gotten credibility due to the acceptenace of National working with them. The sooner this racial party is removed the better for New Zealand. national promised New Zealand in 2008 to remove maori seats. Why is this not happening?. Divisiveness brings trouble.The sooner each and every person is treated equal before the law, the sooner we will have one country that we can be proud to live in. John Key and his mates head better do this with great urgency for the sake of the future of New Zealand and it;'s people.What a mess wh have !.

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The National Party as disappointed in many areas [ETS,foreshore,MP's allowances,drink/driving].It's a great shame that the promise of solid reform held out by Act has not been realised
On the other hand they have done some good work [FTA's]
The decision at next election is not easy!

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Why MMP should go. The kingmaker could be the Greens (save the flat planet), the Maori Separatists, or Winston Peters (scampi anyone?).

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Uh, Mac, the Maori Party are an FPP based party, by virtue of the fact their MPs rely on electorates to get in. Under FPP their chances of being kingmakers would only be increased, as all other minor party competition would be eliminated.

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This article is poorly researched as it doesn't mention the track record of iPredict...where's the credibility? why the scaremongering?

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The Maori Party will drag Nz into the gutter

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John Key has failed miserably.

Nationals ratings are dropping dramatically as everyone is now realising that National has no policies - definately none that will greatly assist the NZ economy and put NZ in far better economic base for the future. Now is the time for legacy policy - John key has a once in a generation opportunity to change the course of the economy .

But he has chosen the PR pathway - photo shoots of him kissing babies and turning up after earthquakes - which result in nothing for the country - in regard to the earthquake and all his walking around affected areas shaking peoples hands - go back there now and see how many would want to talk to the guy in a pleasant manner - NONE. Their houses are still in bad condition - most have not even had one visit from EQC because the Government department wasn't prepared for an emergency. It will take 2 years to even start some of the repairs - ask some of these affected people next winetr how they feel about John key and the Government - not good I would suspect.

So if National are reliant on the Maori party at the next election voters mmay vote for labour or just abstain through contempt for the system

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The Maori party don't even represent Maori. They only represent the maori fringe - radicals and yet they have so much power.

Someone needs to start up the White party and I bet they will get 20% of the vote and hold the balance of power.
I am a Maori and disgusted by the blatant bludging by the Maori party. They are parasites and have no mandate from Maori.

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@get real: if you think the numbers are wrong, you can profit by it by trading. The overall PM market still has National as being about 78% likely to form the next government.

I'd reckon that the vote share market has National trading a bit too low; I've not traded on that though.

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http://www.nzare.org.nz/pdfs/AERA-Sym-NZ-2010.pdf

These cultural marxists must be stopped - they want to smash the family and become the sole conduit of values transmission to our children. Check out www.shiftthinking.org

They state their intent - why are they not in jail?

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