Roy Morgan poll better news for Greens

But private tracking poll looks worse. UPDATED with leaked UMR suvey.

UPDATE/AUG 20: A UMR poll for Labour given leaked to the NZ Herald has:

  • National: 40%
  • Labour: 37% 
  • NZ First: 9%
  • Green Party: 8%

The poll was taken Aug 11 - 17 (that is, after Metiria Turei resigned as Green co-leader), with a sample of 750 and margin of error or +/- 3.6%.


James Shaw's party may not face an electoral wipeout after all.

A Roy Morgan poll has better news for the Greens, putting the party at 9% support (scroll down for full results) — albeit with the caveat that while it caught the full "Jacindamania effect" it only took in half the period of the Greens' worst infighting (see timeline below).

A OneNews-Colmar Brunton poll released on Thursday put the party on 4%, beneath the threshold for MMP survival absent of winning an electorate.

And a Beehive insider tells NBR that on two consecutive days this week, the Greens were at 3% in National's private tracking poll.

The Aussie pollster also has less of a bounce for Labour, albeit in the context that its previous poll had the party at 30% – arguably a rogue result when other surveys had the party at 23% to 25% during the late stages of Andrew Little's leadership.

There is one similarity with other recent surveys, however: it has Winston Peters as king – or queen – maker.

The poll was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 873 electors during July 31-August 13 (Jacinda Ardern became Labour leader on August 1; the Green Party infighting broke out on August 7 as Kennedy Graham and David Clendon threatened to resign from the list; Metiria Turei resigned as co-leader on August 9 after refusing to answer an RNZ question relating to evidence her child's high-profile grandmother provided "significant support" during her period of self-confessed benefit fraud).

Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% (down two points) didn’t name a party.

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