Roy Morgan poll finds National behind Labour/Greens

According to a TV3-Reid Research poll, Jacinda Ardern has jumped ahead of Andrew Little in the preferred prime minister stakes

A Roy Morgan poll finds National down by 4.5% to 43.5%, now just behind a potential Labour/ Greens alliance, which is up to 44% (up 5%).

Support for the National partners was virtually unchanged, with the Maori Party unchanged at 2%, Act NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5%), Greens 14.5% (up 1.5%) and New Zealand First 7.5% (down 0.5%).

All parties outside parliament were sub-1%, including an unspecified level of support for Gareth Morgan’s TOP.

“The fall in support for National comes after Prime Minister Bill English announced a raft of potential reforms to New Zealand’s superannuation laws early in March including increasing the retirement age to 67 from 65 by 2040. The proposed reform will impact anyone under 45 today,” says pollster Gary Morgan.

After noting both ACT (too timid) and NZ First (too bold) have criticised the move, Mr Morgan adds: “The clear opposition to the changes suggests Prime Minister English risks losing the National majority if these reforms become an election issue."

However, a TV3-Reid Research poll released on Monday found 52% of people supported the PM’s proposal to increase the age of super between 2037 and 2040.

Reid Research also found more stable results for the government overall.

It had National up 2 points to 47.1%, and Labour down by the same margin to 30.8% and the Greens almost static on 11.2% (for a combined Labour-Greens vote of 42%.

NZ First was down 0.5% to 7.6%, but still in a position to hold the balance of power and potentially get a Red-Green-Black government across the line.

Other parties were under 1%.

The most intriguing aspect of the Reid poll is that it had Labour’s new deputy leader Jacinda Ardern (10.5%) moving ahead of leader Andrew Little (8.3%) in the preferred PM stakes.

Bill English had 25% support as preferred PM, compared to John Key’s 36.7% at the time he announced his retirement and an average of just over 40%.


Roy Morgan methodology
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 847 electors between February 27 – March 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 7.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party. It has a margin of error of 3.2%.

Reid Research methodology
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted March 10-19. 1000 people were surveyed, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. ​​​​​ It has a margin of error of 3.1%.


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16 Comments & Questions

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Confusing putting them together says they are in front but Labour is trailing.
I know they say they will work to oust the current Govt. but once that's done the gloves come off as to who gets what. One suggestion is if (and a big IF) they were to win then the 'marriage" would end in a acrimonious divorce as Labour’s elected MPs do not believe they should be behind Green’s List MP’s when it comes to cabinet positions. The Labour MPs are yet to find out the deal that has been made behind their backs. If LG were to win smiling Jacinda will NOT be Deputy PM, that will go to the Greens, Foreign Affairs will go to the Greens. However behind all this Machiavellian politics, .National with current coalition partners beats the Labour Greens numbers but not enough to govern here comes Winston the real Machiavellian or is that chameleon ( probably a bit of both)of politics

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LOL, I'd love to see Metiria Turei of the Greens become Foreign Minister in a Green-Labour Government and dealing with Donald Trump. I couldn't think of anything more to put the cause of New Zealand back by decades than this.

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She would be awesome unlike UK PM who demeans office toadying and curtsying to him...

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Donald Trump couldn't cope with Angela Merkel. Easy to imagine how unable to function he might be with someone like Turei, yeah.

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Yikes. One foot out the door.

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Panic button finally being hit? Bit late now innit? Winnie, come in Winnie, where are you...

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Both surveys with margins of error of #+ percent ... mhm ...I'm not booking the tickets for Australia just yet .... especially since the Labour-Green relationship looks so solid as the basis for a Government!!!!!

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Who answers their landlines or mobiles to unknown numbers nowadays? Only the lonely and the confused who don't bother with Caller ID.

And pundits keep wondering why the polls have been getting their results so wrong in recent times.

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Sounds desperate

Would you be saying this if it was saying National has 60% of the vote?

I think we all need to wake up to the fact that this will be avery close election and possibly result in a change of Government
When you have guys like Nick Smith allowed to do his own thing by Bill English anything could happen

National is now rudderless and drifting with no anchor

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Is there really that much difference between them? Just variations of vanilla beans?

If you voted for Helen and Michael you got what National has become, and if you voted for John and Bill you got a continuation of Labour.

All parties with their heads stuck in the sand frightened to actually do anything with regards to the attacking big issues, and heaven forbids doing anything for the long term good of the country for fear of upsetting the almighty bell curve voting bulge, and the MP's investments.

Andrew Little has now taken up John Keys wont touch the Super age mantra.

So the reversion to keeping the bell curve bulge happy at the expense of dealing with things in small steps now to avert what is becoming an ever increasing big mess later continues.

The election is already looking like a non event whoever wins. The same old problems will be left untouched, feather dusted, or kicked further down the road until there has to be extreme measures taken as the is no road left to play with.

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Sad, but true.

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What a great letter. Totally on target.

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It is written.

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It's MMP, and Coalition Governments are a reality. Get used to it people, just as people in Western Europe have had to for years.

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Doesn't mean it's right though.

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You can't compare numbers for National alone vs Labour/Green, you have to compare National/Dunne/Maori/NZ First/Hone with the others to see reality.

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