Roy Morgan poll finds National neck and neck with Labour-Greens

Winston Peters in familiar king-making spot.

The latest Roy Morgan poll finds National neck and neck with combined support for Labour and the Greens, leaving Winston Peters in his familiar spot as kingmaker.

Its headline results:

  • the overall support for the governing National-led coalition fell one point to 45.5% with National support dropping 0.5 points to 43%, support for the Maori Party dropping one point to 1% and support for United Future dropping 0.5 points to 0, while in contrast support for Act NZ was up one point to 1.5%.
  • support for a potential Labour/ Greens alliance dropped 1.5 points to 43% with support for Labour unchanged at 29.5%, while support for the Greens fell 1.5 points to 13%. As noted above, support for potential 'kingmaker’ New Zealand First increased three points to 10.5%.
  • parties outside Parliament were all 1% or below.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen seven points to 129 points in April, with 58% of electors (down 3.5%) saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared with 29% of NZ electors (up 3.5%) who say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

Roy Morgan surveyed 862 eligible voters between April 3-16.

Seven percent of those surveyed did not name a party.

Pollster Gary Morgan notes NZ First's level of support is unusually high for this time in the election cycle.

“In 2011 NZ First averaged 3.5% support in Morgan polls conducted between January and October before polling 6.5% in the final Morgan Poll in mid-November and receiving 6.59% of the vote at the November election, which led to NZ First winning eight seats – higher than any pollster predicted." (NZ First could benefit from a New Zealand version of the Bradley effect in the US, which saw Donald Trump's popularity underestimated by most polls).

“In 2014 NZ First averaged 5% support in Morgan polls conducted between January and July before polling 8% in the final Morgan Poll in early September and receiving 8.66% of the vote at the September election which led to New Zealand First winning 11 seats – again higher than any pollster predicted," he adds.

Up until the recently, the rise of the rambunctious President Trump had started to make Mr Peters look a little dull by comparison. But earlier this week he showed he still has the ability to stir the pot (and force his potential coalition partners into a sheepish silence) as he put out a press release highlighting the Asian ethnicity of two Herald reporters who co-authored an article on immigration trends.

A Curia poll-of-polls shows a slightly more comfortable position for the government. National could squeak back into power with Act, United and The Maori Party in support.

  • Watch Dame Jenny Shipley talking about sacking Winston Peters as Treasurer in the latest episode of The 9th Floor here
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