Scientists back Campbell in Moon Man quake prediction row

Ken Ring on Campbell Live.

UPDATES:
Predicting earthquakes - hedging your bets

Learning from America’s Ken Ring moment
Ken Ring can't predict earthquakes

Last night, self-styled commentator Ken Ring claimed he had correctly predicted the Christchurch earthquake of February 22.

And he told TV3's John Campbell that another quake will strike on March 20.

Mr Ring is best-known for his weather predictions, based on lunar cycles.

And even though his track record in that department has been challenged, he fronted on Campbell Live with his theories, and new prediction, about the Canterbury disaster.

Some will find Mr Ring's foray into pseudo-mystical seismology offensive.

Certainly, Mr Campbell ran out of patience - and, some said, common courtesy - as he interviewed Mr Ring.

The adverserial nature of the interview saw a public backlash in favour of Mr Ring, who enjoys majority support according to some online polls (whose self-selecting nature is, admittedly, about as scientifically valid as Mr Ring's theories).

The Science Media Centre has reacted to the brouhaha not by critiquing Mr Campbell's etiquette, but by asking experts to give their evaluation of Mr Ring's lunatic approach.  

Here some excerpts (warning, if you prefer talkback philosophy to science, stop reading now):



Dr Mark Quigley, Senior Lecturer in Active Tectonics and Geomorphology at Canterbury University:

No one has predicted the recent earthquakes in Canterbury.

Vague quotes about dates of 'increased' activity plus or minus several days, without magnitudes, locations, and exact times do not constitute prediction.

This is opportunistic and meaningless self promotion during a time of national crisis. 

Consider implementation of this 'predictive' strategy. Should we evacuate an area every time the moon is on its closest approach, is full, or new, or is moving rapidly?

Imagine the fear and frustration of such an approach, particularly given the unspecified times, locations, and magnitudes of the supposed 'imminent' events.

Without a basic understanding of how faults generate earthquakes, where the faults are, at what stage they are at in the seismic cycle, and how they have been affected by prior activity, where should we evacuate and where should we go to? This would require several evacuations a month of 'unspecified areas' to other 'unspecified areas'. This is ludicrous. 

Since humans first looked into the sky and felt the effects of earthquakes, they have wondered if the moon and planets are in some way responsible for major earthquakes. As early as 1897, scientists began to pose hypotheses about moon-earth earthquake connections and test them in honest and rigorous way. After all, the moon still gets earthquakes in the absence of plate tectonics, so perhaps there is some validity to this claim.  

Many of these findings from studies comparing earthquake catalogues to tides have been published in high quality journals such as Science (e.g., Cochran et al., 2004) and some scientists have argued based on statistical data from global earthquakes for an influence of tides on earthquake activity under certain circumstances, such as beneath the oceans and within active volcanoes. Some scientists have even argued for a small correlation (perhaps an increased earthquake likelihood of 0.5-1%) between smaller, shallower continental earthquakes and 'solid earth tides' (changes in the shape of our planet due to the gravitational pull of the moon). This is peer-reviewed but controversial research; it does not make it so, but it has undergone scrutiny and will continue to do so. This is the scientific process. 

Typical earthquake-induced stress changes are about 100 to 1000 times greater than those induced by the tides.

Earthquake induced stress increases are also constant, that it until the breaking of the rock alleviates that stress, while tidal stress changes occur in brief intervals related to the moon's elliptical orbit about the earth. There is significant evidence to suggest that the tidal oscillations are too brief and too weak to trigger major earthquakes. So the redistribution of stress related to our 7.1 mainshock and resultant aftershocks is undoubtedly the dominant control on our aftershock sequence, not the moon or planetary alignment. 

I won't be going anywhere in late March.


Matt Gerstenberger - Geological Hazard Modeller; David Rhoades - Geophysical Statistician, both of GNS Science

Validation of an earthquake prediction methodology is a notoriously tricky undertaking.

Unfortunately it is not as simple as taking a single prediction, whatever that may be, and comparing it to what occurred.

It may be that a particular method has some bits of useful information in it, enough that it may get the prediction correct one out of every five times, or one out of every 100 times, or maybe, one out of every 10,000 times.

For a prediction to be useful it must be understood where in this range the method falls. If it is correct 1-in-10,000 times, or is wrong much more often than it is correct, it will be of little help and a random guess will do just as well. 

A significant body of research has been directed at the idea that earthquakes may be predictable based on tidal information. While some of the studies have shown that there may be some level of correlation between the occurrence of earthquakes and tides, the correlation is low enough so that a prediction based on it would be correct only a small proportion of the time and would be wrong much more often than it is correct. 


Dr John Beavan, Crustal Dynamics Geophysicist at GNS Science:

As Mark [Quigley] points out, vague assertions of increased earthquake likelihood are not useful.

But we should not be too dismissive of earthquake/tidal links in certain circumstances. (I'm referring to the stresses induced in the solid earth by the tides due to the moon and sun - (anyone who suggests that the planets have an influence is talking nonsense). As well as the tides induced directly in the solid earth, the ocean tides load the Earth and cause additional stresses, particularly close to coastlines.

We are quite happy these days to allow that Coulomb stress changes on the order of 1 bar due to a major earthquake can influence the locations of aftershocks, and can act as a trigger for future earthquakes adjacent to the original quake.

Though I emphasise that we can say nothing about the specific timing of such earthquakes.

Tidal stresses are only an order of magnitude or so lower than this, so it is reasonable to suggest that tidal stresses could have an influence on faults that are already stressed close to their breaking point.

Many studies were conducted and published in the 1970s and 1980s that looked for a connection between earth tides and earthquakes. These almost uniformly gave negative results, or results that were perhaps positive but very close to the noise level.

One could hypothesize that the Earth's crust in the Canterbury region has been so stressed by the September quake that the tiny stresses induced by the tides could have an influence on the times of aftershock occurrence. This is a testable hypothesis, as it could be applied to all the aftershocks recorded so far to see if the effect shows up in the timing of those aftershocks.


Dr Marc Wilson, Senior Lecturer in Psychology at Victoria University

We have something of a pre-disposition to try to find explanations for things that happen, and much more so for bad things, than good.

Why? Bad things can kill us, where good things (no matter how good) have a much less final benefit!

This is one of the reasons news media tend to focus on bad stuff - because that's what we want to know about, so we can seek to prevent it in the future. We are really quite well adapted for making connections between apparently unrelated things that might help us avoid getting, in evolutionary terms, eaten.

The downside is that sometimes we make the wrong connections, but hey, wouldn't it be worse to GET eaten than make a fool of yourself crying wolf? 

Of course, there's not much we can actually do about things that we REALLY don't have any control over. This makes most people very uncomfortable (and some more than others) so we look for ways to deal with that discomfort. One way to do this is to find 'causes' that we CAN point to, to explain bad stuff. This is one of the reasons that conspiracy theories develop - the fact that stuff sometimes just happens is less comfortable than being able to point to some shadowy evil conspiracy! 

So, this explains why people try to predict the future (or secure the services of those, ahem, practitioners that purport to). We've done it forever, and will continue to do so. It helps us from living with the uncertainty and stress that comes from worrying about when things will happen. Where it can be counterproductive, though, is when the security we get from 'knowing' that nothing bad is going to happen prevents us from taking reasonable precautions or makes us complacent. 

"My personal opinion? Find comfort where you can get it, BUT... I'd trust science over most sources, and I'd still make sure that I do those things that I CAN control (earthquake proofing those things I can, making sure my earthquake kit is well-stocked, etc.)


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217 Comments & Questions

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I think it is perfectly reasonable to investigate whether the magnetic influence of the moon and the tides have an effect on the weather and earthquakes. It does no good to have a closed mind, remember they once thought the earth was flat.

[Good to see someone familiar with Ken's early work. - CK]

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I think you mean the influence of gravity, not MAGNETS. (The moon doesn't have any heavy metals or magnetic force)

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But don't have such an open mind that your brain falls out...

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Lol @ all the quasi-intellectuals trying to debate the credentials of the scientists, while propping up the latest doomsday prophet. Confirmation bias much?

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Of course the scientists don't agree with Ken Ring. He does not agree with them on their claim that it is mankind that is bringing about climate change (if any). Ring gives very good reasons why the moon and possibly sun really contribute to either global warming or cooling which has happened naturally for millions and millions of years.

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thanks for providing evidence that Ken Ring is even more deluded than I first thought.

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we are willing to see the phase of the moon each night.but we fail because we don't even saw its mark on the time provided that we observed the moon ..

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I have found the discussion very interesting, but where do you guys find the time for this?
Dont you have anything better to do like spending time with your loved ones you only very nearly kept?
I would like to know what Kelvin Cruickshank has to say about the whole thing,

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His early work? Like reading your cats paws? Ring is a self promoter pure and simple, in order to sell his predict weather site and almanacks.

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All you monkeys are caught up in your worldly witch hunt, if you look at all Ken Rings predictions you'll see they are just mathmatical calculations and when you compare those to the actual quakes that occur they are way out and completly random. Ken 'Ring' the 'Moon' man talks out his 'Arse'

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Except that *science* proved the Earth was *not flat*.

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The usual academics discounting the activities of the globalists because their jobs are at stake. They attack via ad hominem and the term 'conspiracy theory' without actually addressing the issue. HAARP technology is relatively simple and has been around for a while. The unusual quake activity of late coincides perfectly with their world government agenda (for example Iceland sticking it to the bankers and defeating their referendum and then a month later getting a volcanic eruption, or US and Southcom forces doing Haiti emergency relief drills the day before the Earthquake and then occupying the oil-rich territory) and Dr Marc as a psychologist would know that those pyschopaths in power, if they have a weapon, they will use it. It's mathematically improbable that the high incidence of extreme tectonics combined with the political timing and existing technology plus the birds dropping out of the sky, is 'accidental' or natural in any way. That's not to say HAARP is proven but to resort to character assassination when HAARP is mathematically likely is unacceptable. If anything people that dismiss theories merely because they involve authoritarian conspiracy (despite the proven occurrence of such throughout history) as suffering cognitive dissonance or safe-guarding their jobs.

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Gee experts in active tectonics and crustal dynamics. Also a Geological hazard modeller.

Not exactly high end physics or math is it? How about quoting some real scientists.

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I don't know what you classify as science, maybe you need to go study your bible some more. Im sure god will tell you when the next earthquake is. Also, don't forget to stop your wife from asserting herself (Or get your arse back into the kitchen, if you're female).

Sciencetists HAVE to be come more focused as we increase our knowledge about how stuff works. How about you stop insulting the GNS scientists, who know a lot more than you do.

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I think he was being ironic

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I have full faith and beleif in Ken Ring and have done so for many years, it's time the science boffs went and played with themselves as they have not got a clue especially that Quigley fella as what is the point in all the money being wasted "after the event" measuring and "trying to predict" things - Best is all listed to Mr Ring as more lives may be saved... Hope we are all still here after the 20th of March (give r take a day) to discuss this further and the sincere hope that no more lives are lost.

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Obvious Troller

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How can it be said that this cannot be true . He calculated the other 2 earthquakes, I think some of us have a problem beleiving anything out of the usual. we dismiss anything that is not science fact . I beleive we need to have a higher consciousness in this time . Thankyou Ken.

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Calculated my foot! Ring has also predicted earthquakes for, at least, the 24th of September, the 1st and 7th of October the first week in November, the 20th to the 27th of January, the 1st to the 5th and 19th to the 25th of March and the 17th of April. In fact, in one post, giving him the +/- one day he needs in order to claim he predicted the February 22nd quake , he paints more than half of the time between the start of January and the end of March as earthquake risk.
When he predicts, he says it's merely an opinion. When he gets the odd one (out of dozens) right, he retrospectively calls it a prediction. Calculated? He said it'd be M>7
I trust science over pseudoscience any day. If you want to run to the hills every time he predicts a quake go for it! However, he predicts a lot, and is not very clear as to where it will occur, so where will you run to?

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Calculated my foot! Ring has also predicted earthquakes for, at least, the 24th of September, the 1st and 7th of October the first week in November, the 20th to the 27th of January, the 1st to the 5th and 19th to the 25th of March and the 17th of April. In fact, in one post, giving him the +/- one day he needs in order to claim he predicted the February 22nd quake , he paints more than half of the time between the start of January and the end of March as earthquake risk.
When he predicts, he says it's merely an opinion. When he gets the odd one (out of dozens) right, he retrospectively calls it a prediction. Calculated? He said it'd be M>7
I trust science over pseudoscience any day. If you want to run to the hills every time he predicts a quake go for it! However, he predicts a lot, and is not very clear as to where it will occur, so where will you run to?

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agree with you

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You dont know me but my sud jest is go with your instic you get a feelling go with it other then that I sugest you look at oil and gas drill as possible resonson for earthquakes and perceagers allso earthburping sand blows and so do your resurch before perdic anything and sejest the thret on human nature dont hide whates going on from the public that could be more dangeress then the earquack itself if you want my asitance call I was traind in oil and gas drilling would like to help 1-931-268-2910 TN new equipment out there to help

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No he didn't predict the earthquakes, any of them. Unless you count his predictions that they'd be aftershocks- and most did that.
Ring sheep-Someone, I challenge you to provide a link that Ken Ring successfully and accurately predicted the Sept 4th 2010 Canterbury earthquake. Specifically. Not vague hand waving over a crystal ball, but actually predicted it. 'Big event somewhere' doesn't count, nor does if your best friends neighbours dog heard that he said it. Evidence. Because even Ring himself cannot provide it.

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Yes agreed - these Dr types think they know it all :) maybe they dont

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If he calculated the other two then he is a heartless fool for NOT warning people beforehand. Me, I prefer to 'take my chances'
with the scientists.

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Well said

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Duh! Of course scientists back Campbell. Their jobs are at risk.

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How do you suppose there jobs are at risk? What do you think will happen? The employer of the seismologists will just fire all the scientist in favor Ring and the like?

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How do you suppose there jobs are at risk? What do you think will happen? The employer of the seismologists will just fire all the scientist in favor Ring and the like?

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Just remember that 'experts' are drips under pressure...............

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DR Mark Quigley and Co

You have no right to be part of a criticism of teh Moon Man. At least he predicts

You guys are as useless as an economist - you only comment on history and have no capability of predicting the future or when activity is likely to happen. You have only just found out that the last few quakes came from a totally new fault line around the Port Hills and were telling everyone it was connected to the Darfield faultline.

So maybe sharpen up your own highly paid ( and Government Funded too ) jobs that we taxpayers fund with very few tangible outcomes.

A large number of NZ farmers have sworn by the Moon man for many successful years - he has saved them millions by correctly predicting the weather. The Moon Man has a track record - of success.

That is a lot more than you guys have delivered - maybe all the noise now iis to cover your ineptness and incompetence - The Moon Man is a genuine threat to you.

Stick to your jobs and start delivering results and outcomes.

[Ken said this summer would be cooler.

(See http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metservice/news/article.cfm?o_id=112&objectid=...).

Yet NIWA found February was our hottest month on record for many regions.

(See http://www.nzherald.co.nz/niwa/news/article.cfm?o_id=136&objectid=10706550).

Whoops - CK]

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Chris - your comment & references below compare Ken Rings prediction for the summer 2009/2010 with Niwa's measurement for Feb 2011 (the wrong year!) - hardly 'scientific' grounds to discredit him. - oops?

I quote:
[Ken said this summer would be cooler.

(See http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metservice/news/article.cfm?o_id=112&objectid=...).

Yet NIWA found February was our hottest month on record for many regions.

(See http://www.nzherald.co.nz/niwa/news/article.cfm?o_id=136&objectid=10706550).

Whoops - CK]

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February was more like winter lol!!!!!!!!
If you all agreed with Ken Ring then of course Canterians would go into panic mode. The more people that try to tell us that he is wrong the more we know you are all lying to us. We are Adults on here responding to your messages of dislike towards Ken Ring. The Government no whats happening. All the professionals say they no whats happening, but none of you have got it right yet. You said the Sept earthquake would follow with a magnitude 6 aftershock. Then when this so called aftershock came 5months later you can't make your minds up if its a Earthquake or an Aftershock. Sorry but 6.3 magnitude that wipes out 20bn dollars worth of a city and kills hundreds of people is not an aftershock. It doesn't take 5 months to happen either. I think Ken Ring needs the drivers seat here and you guys just need to sit back and watch as you let more people die and suffer in this country due to your ignorance and neglect.

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aftershocks aren't necessarily less damaging than the main shock - all it means is the activity that caused the main shock means it is more likely for other such events to happen - like a crack in your windscreen once it starts traveling. Also the richter scale is a poor predictor of damage because it doesn't take into account the base rock/ground conditions, the depth or otherwise of the epicentre, or the condition of the buildings. The Sept. 4th event meant that not only was there more likelihood of increased seismic activity but that the buildings weakened from the first and subsequent events would be much less likely to withstand it. There were in excess of 4500 quake events in the immediate region between Sept. 4th and Feb 22nd. Mr Ring couldn't be wrong really.

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You say they have no right to take part in the criticism of Ken Ring? they have every right. Everyone has the right to criticise. Whoever thinks this is all true are obviously just trying to find a reason for what has happened which is fair enough. And Ken RIng has given you one, although it seems far beyond the truth. How can you predict something like this? its virtually impossible. I am deffinitely not leaving the place i love just because of what some wackjob has said. Ofcourse people are going to believe him, they need assurance and are still very vulnarable which he is taking advantage of. How come he is only just becoming so popular now after our September quake. We NZ have expeienced them before. Its just a publicity act.

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So confused is so right about these incompetent fools like Quigley.

And we all know John Campbell is a total c*** and no one listens to him or respects his professional abilities.

The Moon Man should be sitting back laughing at these turkeys.

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Given the GNS scientists' predicted aftershock modeling was claimed to be so reliable last night how come it's so hard to find online? Surely the public should be able to see it and plan accordingly?

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Pretty easy to find if you have half a brain: http://geonet.org.nz/canterbury-quakes/aftershocks/

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I totally agree with you. Where can we find that info...

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Go to www.geonet.org.nz
It is there, It shows the past predictions along with the actual number and size recorded PLUS the future predictions.
Very simple and very plain to see.

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Looking at the comments above I wonder how on earth NZ will build a knowledge economy. Let's stick to low wage low value model, it seems to suit our level of comprehension.

Bugger science, what did it ever do for us?

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Depressing reading isn't it. Magic is a fragile place to seek comfort.

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"Bugger science, what did it ever do for us?"

Medicine, Doctors benefit from science everyday for centuries, for starters

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Its got you writting on here :)

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The roads?

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What did science do for us... Let's see: Electricity, telephone, modern medicine, cell phones, the web (that Mr Christie obviously uses)

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How true. ;) lol

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I've done a bit of research myself, read here:
http://kenringmoonmanwrong.blogspot.com/

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The comments! I have lost my faith in people. Especially moon unit "How about quoting some real scientists"
We could just quote Ken then, the guy whose other job is a childrens entertainer, that's right a real live clown. Once upon a time i thought that if you just pateintly explained the obvious facts to people they would understand. I stopped thinking that long ago.
I Despair

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The gullibility of dimwits never ceases to amaze me. Unfortunately there are far too many uneducated people in the world and this is why conspiracy theorists like charlatan Ring aka Moon dick have so many followers.

Please people, try to understand that scientists who have trained for many years are more likely to "know" things than a clown.

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so the geo scientists have loaded on their website that they expect earth-movement over MAG 5 between 1-7Th March and again MAG 5 and bigger between 8 Mar -4 April. I wonder if you would call this a theory, a guess or even a prediction???? How come they can load it up and not get criticised for it? See if you can find it, its pretty well hidden on their web page!

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Sorry mate, but the 'Moon man' and Mr moon are two different people. It's good to have active online debates, but also good to know what you're on about.

It'd also be kinda nice for people to get less worked up in here and perhaps use their time more usefully and help those around the country to pull through this. I come from Christchurch, but am very aware how much our fellow kiwis are doing their bit to varying and, in some cases, significant degrees.

Scientists and 'Moon man' all have their bits to contribute. I just hope something useful comes out of all of their info for the families of my trashed city...

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So it takes a clown to get it mostly right, makes the scifi's look a bit sillier I would have thought....

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There is irrefutable scientific evidence, that the moon can indeed precipitate or, play a part in earthquake phenomena. The boffin on Campbell's show even stated as such. Perhaps Mr. Moon Man’s work and studies extend beyond what the ’experts’ have been taught at University? At medical school it is called the ‘caterpillar effect‘, where students are discouraged from thinking beyond the square of conventional treatments, primarily to protect the profits of the pharmaceutical industry.

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Science is no great shakes just look at the knee deep litter in the halls of academia. The stench of the discarded theories. The story of the Phlogiston theory is a valuable insight into the workings of this old boys network, Just keep sweeping the bodies under the carpet, the ones that died as a result of the experimentation by these people.

Obviously there is more than just the sea tides that the moon affects. The moon affects every single water molecule everywhere, e.g. our individual body tides.

There have been studies conducted along those lines during the 1960,s it is obvious that the questions raised by those studies have been consigned to the too hard basket because there did not appear to be any money in it. The scientific shills are responsible for untold numbers of deaths via the pharmageddon industry.

BaaaaaaaaaaH!

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Nobody in the world can predict earthquakes, this day, date, location and magnitude.

Because of that nobody can say CHCH will get a 5.5 earthquake when where etc.
If people want to live in fear hiding in doorways etc. because an earthquake is going to be on mar 20th, fine, but keep it to yourself and not spread fear.
This is why scientists don't worldwide, because they can't.
OH, Mr Moon said in October the aftershocks would die and no more big earthquakes are predicted for CHCH. He forgot about Boxing day for starters.
Worldwide The moon and Earthquakes has been looks into and debunked not just in NZ.
Why is Mr Moon not employed in the field by GNS, USGS, Japan or other??? Because he is false.
Just like the thought the world is going to end in 2012, so I can't see the point in rebuilding CHCH.

By the way I predict an earthquake tomorrow for CHCH, it might be only like 2.5 in size but I will be right hahahahaha

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as far as im concerned the scientists r full of shit its not the predictions scaring people its the scientists not telling anyone anything. i have plenty of family in chch and have lived there most of my life. the government trying to keep things quiet isint helping anyone
better people knowing now what is going to happen to the world, than later when its too late and all of the world goes into panic. haha how stupid some people r.

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earthquakes are unpredictable and scientists admit this. The best they can do is give some advice such as there is a likelihood of a quake around 1 magnitiude lower than the earlier one.
What science will not do is make up things to make people feel better. This is scientifically unethical.
Of course such ethics do not apply to Ken Ring

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I hope you dont live in chch Anonymous! If i lived in chch I would think you would be laughing out loud at all those who have been effected by the recent earth movement. Why would someone do that??? I wonder if you have experienced the terror and ongoing terror after an earthquake?

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so if no one can predict earthquakes how did he n also like he said he doing it to warn people. people like u n john cambl all have your heads so far up each others a** its not funny an all the people that work for scintific companys for the goverment ur all just thretnd by moon man al u guys might have the qulifacations but moon man got uz beat

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Um, in English please

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Maybe the scientists should tell us whether there is going to be a major earthquake ( above say 5.5 on the richter scale ) around the 20th of March as the Moon Man predicts ( give or take a few days ) and somewhere between Marlborough and North/Mid Canterbury.

They are critical of his predictions and also the range of days he predicts.

The only way they can answer this is to predict if there will or won't be a major quake around then - but in their case the exact date ( to mitigate their criticism of the Moon Man )
OR there won't be a major earthquake then.

I bet they won't have the balls or ability to be exact in their predictions.

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Congratulations on completely missing the point. They have all stated that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted. And you challenge them to predict the next one in order to prove that they know more than Ken Ring?

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Are you retarded? No one can predict size and dates of earthquakes, that is why scientists never make such a prediction. What they do say is, given historical data an earthquake of (x) magnitude will likely have x amount of aftershocks between certain sizes. This is what they have said. Its not about scientists having no balls its' about dealing with fact. The moon man has written a book on how to read your cats paws. I know who I would sooner listen too... Look it up its called 'Pawmistry'. Ken says he is a mathematicain, mind reader and magician. Deal in logic people!

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I wish that John Campbell had interviewed Dr Reg Roberts who IS a scientist and appears to have developed a mathematical predictive model. His predictions he regularly publishes on his website weeks before the date of the events. His predictions have been close for the Southern region of NZ, for last few months anyway, and I would have thought worth a rational conversation on his methodology.

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Have followed Dr Reg Robert's site also. Globally has a model that seems plausible.
And also backs Ken Rings timings of increased activity....

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Anon at 9.36pm

We are talking major quakes you plonker.

The reason the Moon Man is not employed by GNS USGS etc is that he has the ability to think outside the square and that is not in the job spec for bludging Government funded institutions like them who employ nerds who can't get a job anywhere else

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Where can I get a drink?

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Ahem, these *are* your readers, y'know. Some subtle commentary about the NBR audience here ;-)

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I know what you mean. This thread has more muppets on it than Fraggle Rock.

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After the 7.1 Quake which Ken Ring said he predicted with out evidence from before. He then predicted that the next Major Earthquake was going to be in Ireland.

I think they are still waiting for one in Ireland.

He is not employed by worldwide agencies because he and his predictions are nonsense.
I am in CHCH and the amount of people asking me about his predictions and taking it seriously is quite a number, an I have had to put there mind at rest as they are worrying and scarred witless, maybe Ken Ring should pay the large medical bills if people need medical help for mental distress due to his predictions.

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The TV is God, and always right. People complain about the cost of an education in NZ, yet they attack anyone who has one. Science isn't about taking sides, it's about producing an unbiased scientific concept & then testing that concept. Yet everyone has picked a side (99% without evidence or reason) and started throwing stones. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

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i understand y u have written this comment i think you have a valad point, scientists r people that work out something from general data they have collected. i think everyone has a right to their own opinion, mine is that im not believing all this bull shit the government is putting out. scientists all over the world have been found to tamper with results if they dont like what they c. so i choose to go with my gut instinct instead of listening to every other tom dick and harry. after all everyone has intuition, i say do what is right for YOU!!!!

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Um, wouldn't having an opinion be taking sides and therefore un-scientific...

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<i>The reason the Moon Man is not employed by GNS USGS</i>

er no, it will be because he is not a scientist and seemingly has no understanding of scientific process.

I am pretty sure that having read the bible I should be getting funding for GE research. No doubt many of Ken's supporters will be behind me on this one.

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That's a good one. "What has science done for us?"

Well, why don't you go ask the people with no power, no internet, no running water, no sewage, etc.

[You've got to concede we are still waiting for science to come up with a decent comments filter - CK]

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Campbell has always been and will always be, a prize prat. I presume Mr Moon Man was invited on to Campbells show based on his solid reputation for accurately predicting NZ weather over many decades, and upon which a significant number of NZ farmers depend (read NZ economy). To diss, and be so arrogant and rude to a man with such a solid reputation in his field of accurate weather forecasting, without giving him the curtesy of allowing him to explain his theories in-depth on earthquake prediction, was disgusting. Only time will tell if he is right or wrong.

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Hate to burst your bubble here Paul, but the fact is that most NZ farmers do not rely on Ken Ring's almanac. I am continually surprised how many seemingly intelligent people believe in this soothsayer - but just because people (including farmers) believe he can predict weather does not mean he can predict anything. His weather predictions are +/- 3 days - we live on an island and he says its going to be rainy/ sunny/ windy within a six-day period he's going to get it right a fair amount of the time (especially if you factor in seasonal trends). Hats off to KR for making money out of this - but just because he's successful doesn't make him right.

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Time has told! He's a fraud, milking the undercurrent of fear in Canterbury, to make a name for himself.
It's disgusting.

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My bunion always gives me a twinge of pain 7 seconds before an earthquake. The pain seems to be directly calibrated ton the intensity of the quake! Unfortunately the 7 seconds does not give me enough time to write it up in my almanac until after the event.

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<quote>Bugger science, what did it ever do for us?</quote>
He said, posting on the Internet.

Sorry, but our fellow posters appear to have completely missed the irony and frustration in your post. And the point of it.

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Oh my god! Are there seriously so many stupid people around? Christ!

It takes very little research at all to discover that Rings predicitions (of weather and geological events) are very often wrong. And events he does 'predict' are mainly due to very vague details that can be easily framed, after the fact, to have been referring to the event in question.

Selectively highlighting a single vagure prediction and claiming it was accurate, while ignoring many others that amount to nothing, is the height of intellectual dishonesty.

Ken Ring deserves no media attention at all. Unfortunately people are now taking him seriously and allowing his baseless predictions of upcoming events to scare them.

GNS can't and won't offer a prediction to counter Ring's because NO ONE ACCURATELY PREDICTS EARTHQUAKES. If they did people would be killed by them all the time.

What GNS can do (and has been doing) is modelling the geophysical changes that are happening and generating a basic outline of the seismic activity likely to be involved in those changes.

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Well said. I cannot believe the Sheep who follow Rings predictions blindly without doing homework. After hearing him gloat how he predicted the sept 4 quake I contacted him personally for the evidence. The link he sent was one he wrote AFTER the event saying, 'Here's what happened.' I replied, CHALLENGING him to provide evidence he predicted the earthequake. Not vague 'Big event somewhere in the world stuff' but a specific, accurate prediction. He couldn't, and got quite nasty when he couldn't. He does not like to be questioned, you should follow blindly.
People, wake up.

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Ironic, but I read today that a top, USA geo-scientist predicts a major earthquake(s) in the world (circa March 20), which apparently has to do with an exchange of polarity (whatever the hell that means!!), occurring at both the North and South poles, around this time.

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Could we perhaps have a name of this top US geo-scientist? Or a site to go to to learn more?
Sounds like interesting information

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Citation please?

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Having read all of the above I hate to inform you, but you are all wrong ! even Mr Moon Man. The reason we get earthquakes is because the Earth is really a giant catfish and when we (humans) build structures on the cat fish some of them irritate the fish and it wiggles ( no relation to the children's TV programme). This theory has been extensively documented and accepted for many hundreds of years in Japan. There are mystics who divine where a house or factory should be built so as not to irritate the catfish. The proof of my theory - look at the building boom that had occurred throughout 2008 - 2009. It is just so obvious. Don't Piss the Fish off.

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Well the japs sure pissed the catfish off this time

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Is this the non-paying audience the NBR reaches, or are all of your readers like this?

Maybe Barry is right and you should turn the free bit off. The everyday posts you get paint a very grim picture of New Zealand's business and investing community.

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I'm afraid I must agree with many of the posters here - science is bunkum, whereas Ken's retroactive 'predictions' and 'calculations' are based on solid techniques. Problem is, where does one find eye of newt these days?

I too have a track history of predictions, with a striking success rate which I won't brag about here. Suffice to say, I can provide proof of the accuracy of Ken's (and therefore mine too) predictions:

I hereby predict that in Auckland, between 25 November and 26 December 2011, (give or take 4 weeks), there will be a period of no fewer than 4 consecutive days (give or take a few days) of weather. Wait and see - I will be proven right, so leave poor wee Ken alone!

This charlatan is no better than those TV 'psychics' who prey on the gullible and emotional. The disgusting aspect is that he is doing it at a time when so many are already traumatised and uniquely susceptible to such scaremongering. Purely despicable conduct.

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Best post so far.

"This charlatan is no better than those TV 'psychics' who prey on the gullible and emotional. The disgusting aspect is that he is doing it at a time when so many are already traumatised and uniquely susceptible to such scaremongering. Purely despicable conduct."

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So where was his prediction for the 4.5 that just hit Wellington?

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Ken ring is one of those poor sods who must havbe been dropped on his head when young, altering the normal pattern of synoptic connections. I too can predict events .... let me see .... yes, there will be rain in the Amazon basin between 18th April and 23rd June 2011.

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Deadly :)

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I was smiling all the way through the Campbell interview, it was very entertaining and why I like him, but Santa Claus on TV1 is also getting better at interviewing now.
I thought moon man had every opportunity to put his view across but he didn't when Campbell went quiet after he complained, instead we heard silence.

People do nag alot these days (re Campbell interview). I blame this conspiracy theory age we live in now where we get all these groupies of the conspiracy theorist who have no technical knowledge at all who like to go against everything to be hip or something. Alot of these naggers are on NBR.

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Seriously... I wont claim to say I believe that Ken's "opinions" are flawless... But I still don't understand how he can be the target of soooo much outward hostility - Is there any expert in the field who can say without a doubt that the moon has NO influence on earthquakes at all? No there isn't... Because all the research has been able to show so far is that the moon MAY POSSIBLY have an influence - and that is as far as they have gotten on the topic... Maybe if we take the influence of the moon (that has already been discovered in land tides and ocean tides etc) include that theory with the theory of how the sun can influence land and ocean tides... then calculate that with the variances in the ionospheric charges crossed with the variances in the strength of the gravity field around the earth itself and then also add in a calculation in regards to the thickness of the earths crust at differing points around the globe blended with the depth of the barycenter - not to mention adding in the known weather system variables and also possible sun flares etc... and somehow calculate it all together for different dates and positions of the earth + moon + sun system.... Maybe then more of a correlation will come about... I truly just don't think the research has finished in relation to this topic, and therefore noone has any right to outright disregard a man who has "opinions" that can't be utterly disproved...

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Very well put.

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If jupeter can cause earthquakes and volcanic activity on it's moons on a massive daly scale surly our moon could cause occasional small by comparison earthquakes on earth ok so you carnt use this theory to make accurate predictions that dozent stop the fact that the theory makes a lot of sence and I believe it is possible to make loose predictions that are only a hint as to when you may have a larger chance of an earthquake I meen come on the moon is the closest it can get to the earth and in the same week we ge get on ov the biggest earthquakes in history in japan anyone can put 2 and 2 together and see that the two may well be related the moons gravity is strong enough to stretch the earth slighty just as it pulls the tides it also pulls the tectonic plates too you know . This theory has nothing to do with astronomy or sudo science it is simply the science of gravity .

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@ Vanessa

" Is there any expert in the field who can say without a doubt that the moon has NO influence on earthquakes at all? No there isn't... Because all the research has been able to show so far is that the moon MAY POSSIBLY have an influence "

As Dr Quigley notes, there may be evidence that the moon has SOME influence on earthquakes. But that doesn't quantify how much of an influence it is, nor indeed how much that influence is relative to other potential factors.

Put it this way, an equally true statement would be:
a butterfly flapping its wings in Madrid may have SOME influence on a Typhoon in Tokyo.

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You obviously missed my point - if the scientists still don't have a defined answer and formula for predicting earthquakes - then why disclude the possibility before they have managed to validate the true cause?
Reading the rest of my post may have helped explain the extra variables that could and should come into play, and would be an absolutely massive task for any number of scientists to work on, even as a team....

All I am saying is that a possible opinion cannot be discredited when the formula and answers are still unattainable - especially when the original opinion cannot be discounted as a complete fallacy - it may prove yet that Ken's "opinions" even though not flawless may actually help to lead to validating a final answer in relation to being able to predict earthquakes at some stage in the future...

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The reason for the hostility is maybe he's causing added stress and trauma to an already stress city. People are afraid, the world around them has changed in ways that is hard to believe or imagine. It is selfish for him to announce he was right, or that yet another quake is on its way. Lack of sleep, high adrenaline and so much stress is more than enough for us to cope at this time let alone Kens "predictions" right or wrong. We are a city grieving help us or shut the hell up.

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Melissa... I feel for you, I have 2 step daughters living in Christchurch one of whom was missing for almost a day - at 8 months pregnant, she has lost everything... I'm sure that you and many more can understand the heartache and anguish that we went through here in our family... And our hearts go out to all of you that received the worst news...

But I don't believe that I am not entitled to have an opinion and stand up for my beliefs of human compassion and common decency towards any fellow man... Ken didn't pop up out of nowhere with his "opinions" ... I don't believe anything that he has said was intentional scare mongering - and from what I understand the network approached him and not the other way around...

Do people abuse the church of scaremongering about "End of Days"... do we order them to shut their mouths about the afterlife and heaven and hell? Do we truly believe that a man, even if he is the "Son of God" can be reborn thousands of years later and that God exists in the first place denies all logical and scientific fact... But do we call them crazy? Do we act openly hostile towards anyone that believes in God? NO, we entitle them to their opinion and their belief - because they are entitled to... From what I understand Ken knows that his "opinions" are not flawless and only asks to be taken seriously as there is a pattern that cannot be denied... Not even by the scientists...
No matter what a small degree the moons sole effect on the planet earth is, adding in variables from the sun and the earth+ moon barycenter, and also gravity fluctuations that are in prominent EQ zones around the globe not too mention the very distinct difference in the crust depth in different areas of the world mixed with facts about actual techtonics and how the mantle is made up and then the actual rotation and angle and position of the earth calculated with exact angles and positions of the moon and also sun flares and coronal holes ... All of these things calculated together could easily increase that exact degree to a more potent percentage... maybe all of those other variables actually use the moons pull or the resulting diurnal tides as a focal point for a magnitude of power that has yet to be explained...

Seriously, I can link several websites that would make people take second guess at the possibilities... But being that I don't really want the abuse that seems to go with airing your own personal opinions, I will rely on the fact that if you are interested enough, those facts are not hard to find online for yourself... And may yet help more people come to an informed conclusion of their own without being bullied and lead like sheep... Even NASA has to take the moon's gravity and "small" impact on the earth into their calculations when launching another mission... And yes I have the paper work and/or link for that aswell...

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*sigh* we have a debate that is detracting from the human need of us all to focus on how we can help. Easily distracted are we, now back to the important things..... how are you all Christchurch, is there anything we can do to help, lets not forget ah folks as we argue, there are people out there suffering already.

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Be-aware of these fully qualified tertiary educated "experts"that are being funded by questionable means Maybe the same"experts that told us we need fluoridation in our water??The same people that tell us we need to vaccinate our children ! There is no excuse for ignorance in this day and age- google it people !!! They are brainwashing you !

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Yeah, and the same people that frightened the world with the Y2K bug (the IT industry made squillions from that scam!!) and the Bird Flu pandemic that was supposed to wipe us all out (the makers of Tamiflu must have made a killing). Remember, they used to burn people at the stake who claimed - in the face of the establishment - that the earth was round!!

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And these quacks invented electricity, aerodynamics so we can fly across the world, discovered penicillin, cures for many of the ailments that afflicted our ancestors, drastically reduced child and mother mortality rates, identified why people have problems such as autism, developed our understanding of the world around us, etc, etc.

You are a merely another luddite, in a very long line of luddites. The earth is flat, the man in the moon is real, and so is the tooth fairy.

When Ken Ring can consistently and accurately (as in the dictionary definition of the word) predict where, when, and how strong an earthquake will be - consistently then he will be believed. Until then he's a charlatan and profoundly harmful to people who desperately need support not this tosh.

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What a load of "tosh" you just dropped Give Me A Break!. You haven't the first clue.

Yeah, all those "quacks" and "charlatans" who were astrologers - Brahe, Kepler, Ptolemy, Newton, Galileo, Franklin - yeah, those "quacks" - who invented everything from mathematics, to medicine, to optics, to founding the laws of planetary motion, aerodynamics and physics along with founding electricity - all of them ASTROLOGERS.

What is really going on here is that these so-called "scientists" are so full of themselves and their "careers" that they cannot even notice that the Earth is a planet.

Kudos to the astrologers and Ken Ring - doing the real SCIENCE all you bozos never find time to do - except when it suits you - all the while collecting 'paychecks.'

The gig is about up and you all are whining about poor Ken Ring, the 'quack' who just forecasted two major EARTHQUAKES months in advance.

Jealousy is not science. Seeing how you guys are spending so much time poo pooing in lengthy 'articles' about how much of a quack astrologers are - you surely are worried - aren't you?

You should be. It won't be long now. People do not believe anything the DNS says, much less your crews hitting the airwaves blaming Ken Ring for 'scaring people?"

I don't think so. He saved lives. Those people who heeded his astrological warnings about the coming earthquakes were PREPARED as in BE PREPARED.

The only people Ken Ring is scaring - is all of YOU.

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Wow, another screaming monkey. I bet Ken Ring missed your monthly thingy ay.
Galileo is an ASTRONOMER and not ASTROLGER, Galileo has a degree in math from the most prestige university which is the University of Pisa, your idol Ken Ring has a high school diploma from Auckland Grammar. Galileo was a university lecturer, Ken Ring is a clown (entertainer). Comparing Ken Ring to Galileo is like comparing a chimpanzee to Einstein. The only thing that's scary is your sheer ignorance.

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Outstanding comments - luckily the process of natural selection will take care of you and your unvaccinated hoi poloi [or should that be hoi polio]

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Just like a car needs oil, it would seam the earth does too. we started sucking it out like it would last forever. and guess what it wont. low oil cover = more fiction. John is a dick, the moon man is a clown and the scientists are nerds

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THE WORLD HATES A VOID, SO IF THE OIL GOES OUT WHAT REPLACES IT? SCIENTISTS NERDS - I HAVE TO AGREE, BUT BEING NERDS DOES NOT MAKE THEM WRONG...... OR RIGHT.

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Are all these people idiots? Of course the man is an obvious quack! Shameless con-man promoting himself on the back of national tragedy. Disgusting. Why put him on TV at all? The number of drongos supporting him is truly frightening. Are NZs really that thick?

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back to the real news.... Christchurch how are you doing, is there anything we can do to help... we seem a little distracted, sorry... we are still here, focussed on you, day 7, we can't even guess what this is like, we are still here, we are with you....

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Thank You

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Oh dear! I find it astonishing that so many are willing to believe Ken Ring's nonsense. He contradicts himself so often its laughable. Thanks Marc Wilson for a rational explanation of the rise of the numpties!!!

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Campbell should interview REAL people so that his enormous intellect can dwell on matters that might actually affect us. I had never heard of moon man before he publicised this nonsense and I can't in any way see how Campbell is doing his fellow citizens any good by this.

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nextearthquake.com actually did give a prediction for the 22nd of Feb that was surprisingly accurate. They predicted that a quake measuring anywhere from 4.3 to 6.3 would occur in the South Island region on Feb 22nd.

Ken predicted the quake would come on Feb 18th, not Feb 22nd.

nextearthquake.com's next predicted South Island quake is for the 15th of March, somewhere between 4.5 and 6.5.

We shall soon see which of the two (if either) is the more reliable source.

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I cant wait for March 20th

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The level of gullibility in New Zealand is, frankly, astounding. Not only has Ken Ring's theories and predictions been so thoroughly debunked that it shouldn't actually be an issue any more, it only takes about 10 minutes of critical analysis of what he's saying for the average person to understand it's all bull.

So, on the 20th of March (give or take a few days) are we going to go back to calling the bull sprouted by Ken Ring 'opinion' instead of prediction?

It's simple, we wait until the 21st and then everybody who backs Ken Ring's idiotic utterances eat humble pie. Mass public apologies for deciding that one lunatic knows better than the rest of the planet's geologists.

Is it going to happen? No, everybody will forget, again, that it was a miss and next year when the moron claims another vague hit, we do this all over again.

How many times?

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On the days after the Sept quake I monitored the quake graphs at Geonet and I noticed that aftershocks might be frequent for several hours and then be still. There was a distinct pattern. On the 8th Sept I looked up the tide charts and realised there was some co-relation to high tide. I accurately predicted that the next major aftershock would be around 1.40pm on the 9th. RIght on cue it happened. At that point I started searching the internet and found Ken Rings site, and read it with interest.

The high amount of liquifaction in the quakes tends to indicate that substantial amounts of water are involved and we know the moon certainly affects water. Ken Rings ideas cover far more than just the moon however.

I realise you can't predict earthquakes exactly, but obviously Ken is trying to find the patterns and causes. On his post of 14th Feb, amongst other things he mentioned that the 18th to 23rd was another critical period. I took it seriously and was not therefore surprised to see the earthquake on the 22nd.

I applaud Ken Ring for his research and efforts to try and understand earthquakes and the causes, and have no time for skeptics.

I say, be skeptical of the skeptics, they are critical of new ideas. If the skeptics can provide a better explanation of earthquakes that allows us to predict earthquakes better than Ken Ring then lets hear it. Otherwise let the skeptics be silent.

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Excellent post Objective.

Interesting post by Ty at http://occultview.com/2010/02/28/chile-earthquake-caused-by-full-moon-at...

"A recent documentary centered around a man who used this correlation between full moon perigee and earthquakes around the world with astonishing success (including the one in San Francisco during the world series). He was censured and ordered to stop since he was causing panic and unrest. In the documentary he credits the inspiration for the thesis to a Chilean who said, “we watch the full moon and then we wait for the earthquake.”

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Reading through the comments has firmed up my belief that a large number of Kiwis suffer from the ID10T problem whenever they engage in rational thinking. Who needs an education when you can just believe whatever the church/TV/quack says. How embarrassing.

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What I can't quite decide about Ken Ring is if he really believes it, or if he is engaging in a deliberate con.

Don't forget Ring doesn't do this stuff for charity - his primary source of income is the sale of his books (which are frequently show to be no more accurate at predicting weather than an educated guess).

I can't even imagine how many book sales his Campbell Live appearance has translated into.

What used to amaze me was when he used to appear regularly on bFM's breakfast show (I think Havoc was a believer) and offer his predictions (sorry, opinions) about the coming week. Never did they seem to discuss his failed predictions/opinions for the previous week.

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As for the "why won't anyone accept that the moon could have an influence?" queries - have you read the article?

There are pair-reviewed studies on the issue (that's how actual science is done) which suggest that the moon could have an influence. But that the increased probability of earthquakes is so negligible that it's offers no help in actually predicting seismic events.

So in a given location at any time there might be some slim chance on an earthquake, the gravitational pull of the moon MIGHT influence that, but in such a small way that the likelihood doesn't increase in any meaningful way. So perhaps the chance of an event goes from 1-in-10,000 on a given day to 1-in-9,000 - not much help, and still only a maybe on the moon's influence anyway.

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Whether Ken Ring is right or not is not really the issue. It is the appalling state of TV journalism as illustrated by John Campbell. If he thinks Ring is an idiot and his predictis stupid , why did he have the interview? He says he found alot of ChCh people were upset about what Ring was saying -- well putting Ring on Cambell Live does not help the situation. Campbell is looking one thing only andthat is his sorry ego.

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Well it is unfortunate that is all I can say people are dead people have lost their homes and people are still suffering ...
If anyone can predict an earthquake then great if not maybe people should just move out of Christchurch altogether because it seems that the area will continue to have massive problems ... What do we do is the question?

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everyone is a disgrace look everyone is sitting there putting their feed back on things why cant people see that no one can tell u who to believe its your own choice but whats the point in arguing about it when we can be doing something for Christchurch and all those family's who have lost out on their family's and their loved ones? the people that have lost everything no house nothing and that is all their holding on to is faith we have bigger things to think about than this crap!!!!

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everyone is a disgrace look everyone is sitting there putting their feed back on things why cant people see that no one can tell u who to believe its your own choice but whats the point in arguing about it when we can be doing something for Christchurch and all those family's who have lost out on their family's and their loved ones? the people that have lost everything no house nothing and that is all their holding on to is faith we have bigger things to think about than this crap!!!!

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The tyranny of 110 strikes again CK... I'm afraid that we have further proof of the absolute statistical significance of the fact that the median IQ in the western world is 110.

As apparently exhibited by some of the responses, we have gathered further proof that half of the population have less than average intelligence (and god forbid, it would seem very little idea of basic spelling and grammar).

The moon man is a quack and the only remarkable thing about him is that his personal snake oil brand of pseudo-science has continued to captivate the ignorant and the feeble minded for such a long time.

Anyone remember Milan Brych who left New Zealand after being removed off the list of NZ registered medical practicioners? Perhaps you can wander around the RSA Cemetery in Rarotonga sometime to view some of his unfortunate patients, who in desperation travelled to the Cook Islands to receive his care.

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My research says that everyone who ate bread between the years of 1700 and 1800 - every SINGLE person - died. Moreover, so did any animal that was unlucky enough to eat any bread. That is a 100% death rate of bread eaters. Therefore bread is dangerous and shouldn't be eaten!

Skewing statistics and predictions is fun... Your turn again Mr Ring

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All these pathetic "Woo" comments are making me loose faith in humanity...

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If people (esp John Campbell and gns scientists) had looked CLEARLY at Mr.Rings comments over time, they will note he says himself he does not predict exact earthquakes only potential increased times of ground activity and whether its likely to be a N/S or E/W fault line. He focuses on NZ as this is his country. His observations are based not only on the moons influence but also the coronal holes, magnetic winds and solar flares of the sun directed at earth. He's not the only person to take this into account- international SCIENTISTS do (Check out NASA!)(And nobody calls them Lunatics!)
He is a lunatic( a person associated with the moon(luna)) and a clown for childrens parties and he has no degree in any science- but he has been researching weather for years and many farmers and others would say he knows his stuff and respect his opinions. Others also respect the metservice and they get things wrong all the time.This argument is similar to the dark ages when the world was absolutely flat and Columbus was laughed at! Or that the planets revolved around the earth and NOT the sun.
He did say the wobbles would ease off- for a time from november- with the likelihood of activity around the 25/26th of dec. Then from Jan more increase until april, with March 20th as the peak. For-goodness sake people- read everything- not just bits! It's like taking the bible out of context because you only read a small part. Happens all the time.
All Ken Ring asks is if any scientist is interested he would like to have both modalities working together to maybe gain greater understanding of the phenomenon
and possibly save lives by helping people be better prepared.
So far he offers more insight than geonet, who are just info gatherers at this point and even their own site's article has a history of them only existing since 2000 at the earliest, with limited govt funding and resources, that are only increasing recently.
More respect from John Campbell towards an human being, after being asked to be interviewed, is just common courtesy and professional.No wonder he shuns the media with treatment like the other night!

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"Without a basic understanding of how faults generate earthquakes, where the faults are, at what stage they are at in the seismic cycle, and how they have been affected by prior activity, where should we evacuate and where should we go to?"

It is movement on a fault or the initiation of a fault that results in the earthquake.

Ken Ring may be a nutter but even nutters get things right sometimes. However the scientific establishment an never admit that the nutter/unqualified person can be right. Consider the zinc lady of Te Aroha.

Here is another example:

The Western Bay District Council engaged well known civil engineering consultants to find groundwater. These consultants claimed expertise in groundwater! Two businessmen in Tauranga associated with a water diviner in whom they believed implicitly offered to find water if the council would pay for the well afterwards. That seemed a fair enough offer since the civil engineers were drilling blind anyway. One vociferous councillor was persuaded also and convinced the rest. The water diviner located a site not far from Katikati. The well drillers drilled, not quite where the water diviner had put his peg in the ground, but pretty close, and the engineers pronounced the hole to be dry. The businessmen approached me, totally sceptical about water divining. I suggested that they ask the council's water supply engineer for the well log. Lo and behold the log was produced. Doubtless the council's engineer thought that the businessmen would make no sense of it. Having seen the log I rubbed my hands with glee and suggested that they ask the council's engineer whether they could ask me to explain it for them. "No, no, on no account can you show it to Mr Dewhurst" or words to that effect, was the response. The log showed a nice thick layer of coarse brown gravel, ideal aquifer material, well below the water table. Did they test it? No. But they did a packer test in some tight ignimbrite well below the gravel. No way were they going to let a water diviner show them up. Better still blow a bit more of the ratepayers' money somewhere else. As I pointed out to the councillors at the time, I was reminded of Lord Horatio Nelson and his telescope. It is a great pity that the councillors of the time did not have the collective bottle to put the CEO on the rack over that.

Roger Dewhurst

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Hi Ken
Please tell me when Wellington will have its next earthquake (just the date will do), because I was awfully scared last night. And I know you just want to help people. Thanks.

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The reason for the hostility is maybe he's causing added stress and trauma to an already stress city. People are afraid, the world around them has changed in ways that is hard to believe or imagine. It is selfish for him to announce he was right, or that yet another quake is on its way. Lack of sleep, high adrenaline and so much stress is more than enough for us to cope at this time let alone Kens "predictions" right or wrong. We are a city grieving help us or shut the hell up.

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Hey Melissa Edwards, I can so understand your comments, and I too am very nervous without all the comments. However, if you take a look at geonet, hidden away they have loaded on their website that they "expect" a 5.0 MAG or Bigger between 1-7 March and again between 8 - 4th April. I guess even they are trying to pre warn everyone there is still danger about. I guess tho its so well hidden on their website that "MoonMan" is the only one on the hit list!

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Well said Melissa. Fearmongers are not wanted in Christchurch

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This comments section is the perfect advert for why we need better science education in school which focusses on the scientific method and critical thinking. People are more sceptical of actual experts in the field than they are of some maniac with a website and a ruler. If you think Ken Ring's methods and predictions are of equivalent value to scientifically tested knowledge then you don't understand how science works.

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If one of the poor souls who died in the quake was saved by taking some precautions, Ken Ring's predictions would seem worthwhile.
Cambell scared me more than anyone that night.
It is a pity the scentist did not disclose what they knew earlier, may have saved lives

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what did scientists know earlier but not reveal.
It was well publicised that a second quake around 6.0 was likely but that it was impossible to predict when it would be.

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Campbell did not conduct an interview, it was a rant with Ken Ring nearby. OK, I have taken the point from all of the posts here (because a wise man seeks the counsel of many) that Ken is most likely a crock. I would far prefer however that he digs his own hole and then jumps into into it rather than watch Cambell try to bury him. A very poor interview IMHO.

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Vanessa, Michelle - you are either taking the piss, or you are morons.

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If we all run to safe ground every time somone predicts a disaster may happen on a particular day. Then the chances of being run over by a bus before we get there will likely wipe out the benefit, either that or we'll all be a lot fitter ?

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Got here by surfing the internet - you know, that thing invented by Tim Berners-Lee, out of CERN. Wait a minute? Don't they do science or something? Gee it seems to have worked!

Maybe I will believe in science after all? I will check my horoscope to see if I am open to new ideas this week.

Nope. All it says is "You will be lucky in work, money and love" Amazingly I work in a bank and am having an affair with my boss. He was getting a little naughty with me on a bed of money the other night and the point I am getting to is that the John Campbell interview with Ken Ring came on the TV just as the earth moved. That Ken Ring is stud-muffin and can modify my Marcalli scale any time he likes. I can confidently predict I will be rocking his world about 15 days into my lunar cycle.

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Please just stop all this attention seeking. There are so many worthwhile ways to use your energy helping people rather than discussing what is basically a load of c..p. We have people in Christchurch who need help. Get out and do something useful - I have just been peeling hard boiled eggs for sandwiches that I will make tomorrow for the SVA along with other fillings for 16 loaves of bread. So come on everyone do your bit to help others. I am off to bed now.

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Please just stop all this attention seeking. There are so many worthwhile ways to use your energy helping people rather than discussing what is basically a load of c..p. We have people in Christchurch who need help. Get out and do something useful - I have just been peeling hard boiled eggs for sandwiches that I will make tomorrow for the SVA along with other fillings for 16 loaves of bread. So come on everyone do your bit to help others. I am off to bed now.

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Good on you Granny, more action less talk everyone. I'm off to bed to with help of a little blue pill....

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No offense , but you actually have the audacity to write an article about Mr Ring , implying that what he does is some sort of mystical pseudo-science? Why exactly, because his theories don't fit in with mainstream science that can only be found in a textbook and taught in schools?
Most of modern science (cosmology, modern physics ect.) is based on theories that cannot be tested by experiment , but none the less those theories are accepted , so much so that this new scientific dogma has virtually become scientific law , and it cannot be touched or you are labeled as a 'heretic' . Mainstream science , unfortunately , has become the new religion , as most modern theories are based on belief at one level or another.
And again , no offense Mr. Keall , and Mr Campbell for that matter , we all have the right to free speech and our own opinions , and yes i understand that it is difficult to keep our emotions in check when we disagree with something so adamantly , but must we continue to assassinate the character of the one's we do disagree with?

I didn't write this to defend Mr. Ring , or to speak out against how Mr. Campbell reacted in his interview, I wrote this to defend what I believe to be right and in hopes that maybe science , society , and just all of us as the human race can be open to other possibilities. Maybe Mr. Ring is right ... maybe he's not , either way might we take a moment to listen , think , reason and discuss , debate , be open not only to what has been but what may be. What is right or what is wrong can both lead us further in the right direction.

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His theories are pseudo-science not because they don't fit in with mainstream theories but because they aren't science. Science is based on the concept that a good theory is disprovable - can be shown to be wrong if it is (even if as in the case of string theory and the like, we don't have the technology yet). Ken Ring's theories can't be because he gives such wriggle room.

A direct quote from him: "Big earthquakes usually happen around new moons and full moons, and a week either side. " In other words out of 28 days, earthquakes are more likely to happen on 28 of those days. Ummmmm... my theory is that earthquakes generally only will happen on days with a "Y" in them - it's not mainstream science but I think it has validity.

Seriously, I understand what you are saying and I appreciate the sentiments, but Ken Ring HAS been listened to and thought on - and all evidence shows him to be self-deluded at best and an outright con artist at worst. Now it's just waters being muddied by him and his followers when time could be better spent listening , thinking , reasoning, discussing and debating ideas that MAY have merit.

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This about John Campbell and his manners. Basically he gas few. Oops, when his job is on the line, he quickly apologises..thats Campbell, the brat.
Have been watching him closely fro some time and he sadly is mainly keen on keeping his job, little rich paid fellow, lucky you have such a job young man. We do read right through you. Perhaps one day you may just grow uo and be honest and really caring, however, this will not happen as you are one of the spolt youth who have found it so good you do not and will evevr know what the real world and people are all about.!.

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I'm astonished at how irrational and ignorant your readership seems to be. Are these really the peope on whom we rely to shape policy and determine our future?

It seems the smoke and mirrors that led to the stock market crash also extends to more generalised magical thinking. Maybe you should do a series to educate them regarding how to think like a rational person, and how to spot a charlatan - might help when they're making investment decisions as well.

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Does it really matter if he is wrong or right? I have just come back from four days Search and Rescue in CHCH. They were not prepared. The biggest damage to the city is the emotional shock, it will be long lasting. The contact with the neighbours is where the rebuilding of CHCH needs to start the healing, and for those of us who were lucky not to experience such an ordeal, lessons are to be learnt, prepare for any quake get to know your neighbours and start caring.

but as they say ..."Opinions are the cheapest commodities in the world."

mine is of no greater importance than anyone elses.

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I would just like to say THANK YOU for your help as a Search and rescue person!! And, also,regarding your comment...very well put. Stay strong, we'll get through this chCh.

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Campbell got a whipping because instead of being his usual smarmy suggary self, he got nasty and had a go at Ring.

No one really gives a fartance about Ring and his predictions. The whole issue is really symptomatic of just how current affairs editors are a bunch of braindead idiots who're finally running out of any real ideas on how to milk the Christchruch quake any further..

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Its very interesting when you start looking at the date of the full moon and other major earthquakes:
Napier
Edgecumbe
Haiti
Chile
Kobe

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Anonymous 9:19 3/3/11 says "Its very interesting when you start looking at the date of the full moon and other major earthquakes"

Someone's been good enough to run that data for all major NZ earthquakes since 1843.
http://on.fb.me/i10L26

Correlation = zero.

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I lost all respect for Campbell after that interview. Incredibly hostile from the beginning. I wanted to hear what Ken Ring had to say but instead all I got was Campbell's loud mouth. I am sick of the bias mainstream media, time to stop watching the t.v and find the facts myself. We want unbiased interviews where we can form our own opinion rather than have a predetermined opinion formed by a reporter with less knowledge on the subject than the guest.

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The idea of saying it could not be true is not to causing any further havoc within the community.
His prediction is based on scientific evidence so why would it not be true. Studying Ecology 101 at Lincoln university 1999 the topic meteorogy & climatelogy... the lecture said a major earthquakewas due to hit the South in the next 10 - 20 years... big enough to wipe the South Island out... it was then I decide after I fiinished my degree I would move overseas. I moved 2002

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Some of these comments are just frightening! The world really is entering a new Dark Age... how tragic... how sad

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It was a poor interview which didn't allow us to get any hear about Ken's theories. Having said that, it should be obvious to all that Ken is a meteorological witch doctor. A fraud.

The only question is whether he is believes his only theories or is a blatant liar attempting to profit from peoples fear and misery.

I do sympathise with John's obvious anger that Ken is taking advantage of people while they're down and out. Frankly Ken's behaviour is abhorrent and should be judged in the same vain as a Bernie Madoff, an L. Ron Hubbard or any other self serving fraud.

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Reading from some of the comments I wonder why our tax money went to education sector in the first place. I'd get a higher sense of achievement flushing my money into toilet than paying tax for letting these monkeys going to school and then believing in pseudo-science. The sheer ignorance is just incredible.

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To Past Lincoln/Canterbury Student | Friday, March 4, 2011 - 3:59am, did you fail your courses? What you have said is just an embarrassment to yourself. A major earthquake is overdue, but not "due to hit the South in the next 10 - 20 years"; earthquake movements are taught in geological courses and not meteorology. But please do move to overseas because that will be the best thing you could do to NZ. Or better, if you kill yourself now, you are doing the entire world a favour.

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Good lord, I cannot even begin to prove my level of contempt for the people on here that give Ring an credence whatsoever.....wake up for gods sake you losers.
I preict an earthquake in Christchurch today, tomoorow, the next day, the next day, tha day after that and the day after that. I will donate 1 million dollars to charity if i am wrong.
Get Mr Ring to put his money where his mouth is, talk specifics, put his balls on the line and stop selling snake oil

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Good lord, I cannot even begin to prove my level of contempt for the people on here that give Ring an credence whatsoever.....wake up for gods sake you losers.
I predict an earthquake in Christchurch today, tomoorow, the next day, the next day, tha day after that and the day after that. I will donate 1 million dollars to charity if i am wrong.
Get Mr Ring to put his money where his mouth is, talk specifics, put his balls on the line and stop selling snake oil

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I'm sorry but if it was "Opportunistic and meaningless self promotion during a time of national crisis". Then why did John Campbell give him publicity by inviting him on his show to start with. I would never have even heard of him, it it wasn't for John Campbell

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Actually can someone also explain to me how he is taking advantage of people while they are down? Is he trying to sell them this information or something? Unless I've missed something somewhere I cannot see how he is taking advantage or profiting from this situation.

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Quote: <quote>Is he trying to sell them this information or something?</quote>

Yes.

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On the thing about the campbell interview - it was not representative. If it was, you would have had the vast majority of the worldwide scientific seismology-related community on one side, and ken on the other.

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Could you please give me a url or something, I'd be interested to read it thanks.

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http://www.predictweather.com/
Do you speak English? Do you understand what do "My Cart" and "Check Out" mean?

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To anonymous @ Friday, March 4, 2011 - 3:37pm

I don't really get what the "Do you speak English?" comment has to do with my question. I asked if someone could provide me a link, which you provided and I thank you. Great job! Well done, you! Now I can see for myself that he has a website which sells weather prediction information amongst other things.And that you need to learn how to answer peoples questions more respectfully.

By the way, to all the people who hate him so much, you really should just ignore him. All the public criticism of his ideas, the newspaper reports and TV interviews, has done nothing but given him a huge publicity boost. I didn't even know who he was until coming across some Facebook thing about the John Campbell interview.

Check out the increase in hits to his website, since everybody started talking about him:-

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/predictweather.com#

#352 most visited site in NZ, which is exactly what he wanted. If you don't want him to benefit, then stop mentioning him and giving him free publicity.

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Why should people respect you? Because you believe in a crook? Or because you have less education? Or because you cannot even carry out a simple google search?

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Why should people respect me? Because I don't think I did anything to deserve being treated disrespectfully other than ask a question.

I simply asked "Where can I obtain information on how Ken Ring was profiting from this disaster?" I did not say I believed what he said or not.

I was provided with a link which lead to his weather prediction site which didn't prove anything by itself. But if you look at his website visitor statistics you will see the extent to which he will profit. His website has gone from about 250,000th most visited site to 287th most visited site (in NZ) in two weeks.

Why have the hits to his website skyrocketed? Because a certain TV network thought it would be a great idea to berate an othwise unknown person on national TV. Whether he deservered it or not is irrelevant, the result of this was to give him and his website free publicity worth at least tens of thousands of dollars.

He will not benefit simply from claiming to predict earthquakes after a national disaster. It is the publicity he is benefiting from. He will make money from all the people googling him after that interview on TV, the people looking up that interview on youtube, the facebook groups that arised from that interview, the twitter posts, forum posts... etc... Do you think this is an uneducated analysis?

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March 20 will prove how good he is. I'm opened minded. But if I lived in Chch and there was still only a 10% chance of him being right, I'd be booking a holiday in Auckland on Sunday the 20th... if he's right, it will give the 2012 theory a whole new perspective with so called planetary alignment...

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I did go to hear Ken Ring speak and explain his theory some years ago. It is based on a 19-year cycle in which the moon repeats its orbital pattern exactly. This has produced weather patterns in such a way as to be virtually identical to within a day. He prooved this with actual weather satellite images from days exactly 19 years apart and you could have thought they were the same day.
I think if you dig up the Herald from 4 March 1992 and look at the pictures in the weather section from that time, then compare it with today's it will give you a bit of a surprise.
We got him to forecast the weather for our daughter's wedding several months in advance and, yes sceptics, it was EXACTLY as predicted.
So I don't doubt the man. Whatever bricks the conventional scientists try to throw at him. By the way, he is a mathematician, not a clown.

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Really? He's a mathematician? Who hires him as a mathematician? Would you hire someone with a high school degree as a mathematician? The guy is a clown, and this is not a figurative speaking, his profession is clown. This is fact, and fact is not for discussion.

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