What's behind National's surge, and the Green's record low
The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll (on Curiablog) shows a large change since their last poll in October.
National is up 6% to 51% and the Greens have dropped 5% to 8%. This is the (equal) highest National has polled since the election and the lowest the Greens have polled.
Labour have stayed constant at 34%. Now voters do not tend to defect from the Greens to National. Almost certainly what has happened is National has picked up 5% to 6% off Labour, while Labour has picked up 5% from the Greens. This makes sense, as their giving welfare to families earning up to $150,000 will appeal to hard left voters, but be a total turn off for centrist voters.
Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was.
One should never jump to a conclusion off one poll. However the four polls done in February average out at 49% for National, 32% Labour and 10% Greens. That is a 7% lead for National, which is a huge contrast to January when National was 2% behind Labour and Greens combined.
It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.
The challenge for National is to resist arrogance or complacency. A 7% lead can disappear, and under MMP no election is safe.
Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: Around 1,000 respondents
Dates: 19 to 23 February 2014
Client: One News
- National 51.0% (+6.0%)
- Labour 34.0% (nc)
- Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
- ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
- Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
- United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
- Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
- NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
- Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)
- National 64
- Labour 44
- Green 11
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Conservative 0
- Total 125
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
- Centre Right" – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
- Centre Left – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
- Centre – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125
The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.
- John Key 43% (+1.0%)
- David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
- Winston Peters 4% (nc)
- 43% say he should be a Minister
- 43% say he should not