Why unemployment could surprise us again

Tomorrow’s unemployment data could provide another jolt, even after last year’s unexpected spike to 7.3% of the workforce.

It is quite possible the household labour force survey shows a rise in both employment and unemployment.

The average forecast by economists is for a small drop in unemployed, from 7.3% to 7.1% of the workforce.

They may be right, though it is worth remembering none of the economists who follow the New Zealand economy predicted the rise from 6.8% to 7.3% recorded for the September quarter last year.


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