Goff leads among National voters, all-comers in latest Auckland Mayoral poll

It looks like game over. With special feature audio.

DECIDED VOTERS 

  • Phil Goff: 52%
  • Vic Crone: 15%
  • John Palino: 8%
  • Cloe Swarbrick: 7%
  • Mark Thomas 5%
  • Penny Bright: 5%
  • Others: 8%

INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS 

  • Phil Goff: 38%
  • Vic Crone: 11%
  • John Palino: 6%
  • Cloe Swarbrick: 5%
  • Mark Thomas 4%
  • Penny Bright: 4%
  • Others : 5%
  • No response: 4
  • Don't know: 23%

Source: Horizon Research. The survey, commissioned by Derek Handley’s non-profit Aera Foundation, polled 748 eligible Auckland voters between 8 September and 12 September 2016.

 

It looks like game-over in the Auckland mayoral race.

Phil Goff has a huge lead according to a new poll by Horizon Research (see above).

And his rivals have very limited time to peg him back. Postal voting opens this Friday and closes October 8.

The dream scenario for the centre-right is that Mark Thomas and John Palino will withdraw, giving Vic Crone a clean shot at defeating Mr Goff. But the Horizon poll indicates even if that happens, the former Labour leader will still wipe the floor. Mr Thomas is looking particularly weak, trailing even 22-year-old local body debutante Chloe Swarbrick.

On paper, the number of undecideds gives Ms Crone hope, but the reality is that in local body and general elections, undecideds typically break along similar lines as those who made up their minds earlier.

Goff is National voters' favourite
The determinedly centrist Mr Goff’s crossover appeal seems to be the secret of his success.

As well as commanding among Labour and Green-affiliated voters, he registers 24% support among National-identified supporters – more than any other candidate include the leading centre-right contenders Victoria Crone (who drew the support of 21% of National Party voters) and John Palino (13%).

Horizon principal Graeme Colman notes Mr Goff — who has pledged to hold rate increases to 2.4% and cut council costs by 6%, in part by culling staff — also has more support than any other candidate among the self-employed, managers and business executives.

See the full poll results here.

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