Kim clan retains power in Nth Korea – for now

The sudden death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il from a heart attack has raised fears (and hopes) of instability in the impoverished but nuclear-armed Stalinist state.

The Kim clan remains in control of the isolated country with Kim’s third son, Kim Jong Eun, who is in his late 20s, already declared the Great Successor to his father, the Dear Leader.

North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, who died in 1994, is still revered as the Great Leader and next year will mark the 100th anniversary of his birth.

When Kim Jong Il took over from his father, it took several years before he could consolidate his power among the military caste.

But in those days, North Korea was less impoverished than it is now; the collapse of the Soviet Union and rapid change in China has taken away most of North Korea's economic props.

It is afflicted by food shortages: a famine from 1995-97 killed two million to three million. In its desperation to keep its population suppressed, the government embarks on acts of military adventurism.

It made two attacks against the South last year -- sinking a ship and bombarding an occupied island -- and as recently as Monday test-fired short-range missiles into the sea off its east coast.

Though a shock, Kim Jong Il’s death was not unexpected. He suffered a stroke-like illness in August 2008 and prepared for his succession by appointing Kim Jong Eun as a four-star general in September 2010. He was given a position on the military commission of the ruling political party.

North Korea’s neighbours are powerless against any internal instability and repression that might follow from the leadership change. They are more concerned about the future about diplomatic moves and economic sanctions aimed at stopping the nuclear arms programme.

So far this has achieved little. North Korea is reported to be the main supplier of technology and experts to Iran for its nuclear arms build-up while the food shortages don't seem to worry the government.

The US and others have tried to entice the North Koreans to end their aggression in return for food. It remains to be seen whether popular uprisings will occur and the regime implodes from outside pressure.

A critical factor in how this plays out will be Kim Jong Eun’s youth and inexperience. His father had 10 years’ preparation in government policy-making before taking the reins of power.

Family ties are critical in keeping control of the military hierarchy. Kim Jong Il's sister, Kim Kyong Hui, and her husband, Jang Song Taek, are powers behind the throne in ensuring the succession goes smoothly.

In the meantime, North Korea will go into a period of official mourning that could last for some time, though not as long as the three years of mourning that followed Kim Il Sung’s death.