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Hot Topic NBR Focus: GMO
Hot Topic NBR Focus: GMO
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New Zealand First could get 5% - iPredict


Predction market "in two minds" about Winston Peters returning to Parliament.

Niko Kloeten
Thu, 21 Jul 2011

New Zealand First could reach the crucial 5% party vote threshold at the general election, according to the latest weekly snapshot from prediction market website iPredict.

However, iPredict noted the market “appears to be in two minds” about New Zealand First.

“On one hand, it has again reached MMP's 5% threshold this week (compared with 4.8% last week), but the market also predicts that party leader Winston Peters has only a 22% probability of returning to Parliament (down from 23% last week).”

Whether New Zealand First makes it or not, National is expected to be able to form a government.

National's forecast party vote has decreased slightly this week (44%, down from 44.5%), while Labour's forecast vote share has remained steady (31.4%).

The Greens are predicted to get 7.0% (steady), New Zealand First 5.0% (up from 4.8% last week), Act 4.5% (down from 4.7% last week), UnitedFuture 2.2% (up from 2.1% last week).

The Maori Party is predicted to get 2.0% (up from 1.8% last week), the Mana Party 1.8% (steady), the New Citizen Party 0.4% (steady) and the proposed Reform New Zealand Party 0% (steady).

Based on this data, and the forecast electorate results, National would have 54 MPs, Labour 38, the Greens nine, Act six, New Zealand First six, the Maori Party three, UnitedFuture three and the Mana Party two.

There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply, so that National could govern with the support of the Act Party and either UnitedFuture or the Maori Party.

If New Zealand First only won 4.9% of the vote National would have 57 MPs, Labour 40, the Greens nine, Act six, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture three each and the Mana party two.

There would be 120 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply. National would require the support of the Act Party or UnitedFuture and the Maori Party.

Niko Kloeten
Thu, 21 Jul 2011
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New Zealand First could get 5% - iPredict
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