Today's retail sales figures looked good, at first look.Statistics New Zealand reported the value of retail sales for the three months to December 31 were up 1% on the previous quarter. The volume of sales was also up 1%.The full picture is a bit more mi
Today’s retail sales figures looked good, at first look.
Statistics New Zealand reported the value of retail sales for the three months to December 31 were up 1% on the previous quarter. The volume of sales was also up 1%.
The full picture is a bit more mixed though.
The December month – as opposed to quarter – actually showed no change – a big flat 0.0%. Taking out vehicle sales, the sales actually declined, by 1.8% in value (the volume figures are not available for the month, only the quarter).
In fact, “core retail” – that is, non-vehicle related retail – showed a substantial fall in what is usually the most profitable time of the year.
Although the figures are seasonally adjusted, they still show “an unprecedented fall of 1.8% ($76 million) in the core retailing industries.”
That does follow increases in the previous two months of 0.2% and 0.8% especially, and the trend in recent months has been rising since June. However the trend “should be used cautiously, when the economy is turning,” Statistics New Zealand’s Ken Smart said.
The main driver is supermarket and groceries, down 1.4% - the largest since the series began in May 1995.
Some areas are doing well. Appliance stores saw the largest increase, up 3.2% in volume for the quarter, with cafes and restaurants having the second biggest volume rise, up 5.6%. (Although the percentage is smaller, appliance stores are the bigger proportion of the survey).
However although cafés and restaurants also recorded a rise in the value of sales – up 6.3% or $61 million – appliance stores enjoyed a minimal increase in the value of sales – up just 0.1%.
That implies an actual decrease in prices, once seasonal effects are removed, Statistics New Zealand says.
And in contest, the volume of core retail sales have stopped declining but are back to where they were before the two-year decline began in June 2007.
Sale values has been rising since March and is up 2.4% since then. It is still rising below normal levels, however, the average quarterly increase has been 1.3% since the series began, but it has slowed to an average of 0.5% since June 2007.
