As Labour’s poll numbers fall, the odds of a change of government rise.
"Leading that bunch of left-wing misfits would make for some very hard work for Winston if he was PM ... Whereas taking a half term as PM with National behind him would seem to be a heck of a lot easier, and far less risky?"
David Shearer's Mt Albert, like neighbouring Mt Roskill, is another seat where National won the list vote by a large margin in 2014.
"It would be very unfair for a new leader to be tarnished by the result of this seat - but it will happen"