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Hot Topic Reporting season
Economics
6 mins to read

Reading tea leaves and crystal gazing – how accurate can it be?

NBR asks leading economists about their economic predictions and why we should listen.

WATCH: HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham speaks with Jonathan Mitchell.

Key points
  • What’s at stake: Whether the RBNZ needs to hike the official cash rate again in 2024 because of stubborn inflation pressures. 
  • Background: The central bank left the OCR at 5.5%, as widely expected, in November, while delivering a hawkish outlook. 
  • Key players: RBNZ, Adrian Orr, Christian Hawkesby, HSBC, Paul Bloxham, Westpac, Kelly Eckhold, ANZ, Sharon Zollner, Kiwibank, Jarrod Kerr, Stats NZ.

Economic analysts have been surprised at how sticky inflation has been over 2023, using a pencil and a crystal ball to try and plot a path forward. 

In November, the RBNZ threw caution to the wind, in that it had a “willingness” to hike the official cash rate again because of worries about

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Contact the Writer: jmitchell@nbr.co.nz
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Key points
  • What’s at stake: Whether the RBNZ needs to hike the official cash rate again in 2024 because of stubborn inflation pressures. 
  • Background: The central bank left the OCR at 5.5%, as widely expected, in November, while delivering a hawkish outlook. 
  • Key players: RBNZ, Adrian Orr, Christian Hawkesby, HSBC, Paul Bloxham, Westpac, Kelly Eckhold, ANZ, Sharon Zollner, Kiwibank, Jarrod Kerr, Stats NZ.
Reading tea leaves and crystal gazing – how accurate can it be?
Economics,
101904
true