The latest National Bank business confidence survey shows optimism has taken another dive.The survey results are still in the net positive territory but the proportion of firms expecting business conditions to get better over the coming year is less than
The latest National Bank business confidence survey shows optimism has taken another dive.
The survey results are still in the net positive territory but the proportion of firms expecting business conditions to get better over the coming year is less than half what it was in the summer – down to +16%.
Expectations about their own activity is a little better – a net +26%, down 6% from last month.
Profit expectations fell 5% and the numbers expecting larger profits over the coming year is barely positive at +4%, as against a long run average of +7%.
The one area of good news is the export sector – a net 31% of firms expect to be exporting more over the year ahead.
Pricing intentions are unchanged – a net 32% of firms expect to raise prices over the coming year.
That is obviously partly driven by the new government imposts coming into effect – most notably the rise in GST on October 1 and the impact of the emissions trading scheme on energy prices.
However, that 32% figure is roughly consistent with a 4% rise in the Consumers Price Index, says ANZ National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie – which is much lower than present forecasts of a rise to about 5% or even – in the case of the Treasury – higher.
“We have an economy that appears to be settling into a moderate expansion phase, albeit with clear risks,” Mr Bagrie said.
“There’s growth all right but it doesn’t feel like it for a lot of folks.”
