Business mood on the up again
National Bank survey flags increased confidence about the economy and more firms are picking their business to pick up.
Business confidnce is on the up.
The Nationals Bank's latest survey, out this morning, showed an 11% in confidence about the overall outlook for the economy and, more importantly a 5% rise in outlook for firms' own activity.
The 'own activity' part of the survey, which is paid the most attention by economists, has gone from +26% to +31% and is well above the historic aferage.
Employment intentions rose from +3% to +5%; profit expections are up from +8% to +10% and export intentions are up +16% to +19% - this latter point a telling one given the currency headwind facing a lot of exporters right now.
The only real drop was investment intentions which, while still positive, dropped from +14% to +11%.
"The outlook for the New Zealand economy continues to be dominated by the interaction of five significant shocks: a volatile global scene; fixing the national balance sheet; rebalancing; a positive income shock; and seismic events," said the bank's chief economist Cameron Bagrie.
"We envisage ongoing volatility across the business cycle (think more mixed stop-start economic signals) amidst a lower trend growth …We have pencilled in around 2% economic growth for this year and around 3 % growth over the next two years.
"This is hardly stellar, but extremely respectable across peers when you consider global challenges, including a Greek Tragedy, hurly burly European politics, growing debate over the “true” state of the Chinese economy, and a New Zealand dollar that continues to track global as opposed to local fundamentals."
Rob Hosking
Wed, 29 Feb 2012
Wed, 29 Feb 2012
© All content copyright NBR. Do not reproduce in any form without permission, even if you have a paid subscription.
Business mood on the up again
19113