Chinese GDP to stay above 8%, says Asian Development Bank
While still dropping from recent highs, it should show around 8.5% growth this year.
The Asian Development Bank is forecasting a more moderate slowdown in the Chinese economy than was feared.
While still dropping from recent highs, it should show around 8.5% growth in GDP this year, Asian Development Bank principal economist Dr Donghyun Park says.
"In fact, there were some numbers out this morning which suggest it may be higher this year," he said, referring to credit growth figures which showed an unexpected surge in lending for development.
There have been fears that if China's GDP growth dips below 8% it would have a sharp impact on growth in the region and would have a particularly sharp impact on New Zealand, directly through exports to China and indirectly because growth in New Zealand' largest trading partner, Australia, is now so tightly geared to Chinese economic growth.
Some economists have sketched scenarios where Chinese GDP could drop down to around 6%, a drop which would have tipped several economies in the region, not just Australia, into recession.
That looks unlikely, but Dr Park says there are two imponderables hanging over the current growth track.
"The key geopolitical risk is an oil price spike driven by instability in Iran, in particular, along with the other general Middle Eastern uncertainty," he says.
The other is further financial turmoil in the eurozone.
The "massive liquidity injection" at the end of last year has averted the crisis but has not solved the EU's problems, he says, and indicates more turmoil is still likely.
"The threat is sizable – but it is manageable," he says.
Rob Hosking
Fri, 13 Apr 2012
Fri, 13 Apr 2012
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Chinese GDP to stay above 8%, says Asian Development Bank
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