CUNLIFFE - still being worked on not for publication

Former Labour party president Mike Williams says David Cunliffe brought his demotion on himself.

The ambition of Cunliffe and his supporters collided with the democratisation of the leadership selection at the conference.

That's where the Cunliffe supporters saw their opportunity.

They thought to themselves if we can get 40 per cent of the caucus to promote a spill then we'll go back to the party membership which clearly sypports Cunliffe, so they saw that as an opportunity.

But Shearer has had a year to sell himself to the party membership and he's done quite a good job of that.

 I went to a Te Atatu LEC meeting this year and he was ine jeans and open necked shirt and he was relaxed and he had everyone in the palm of his hands.

So I think the earth has moved under David Cunliffe and I don't think he realised that.

I think he overplayed his hand

Asked what Mr Cunliffe's chances were of getting enough support in the next leadership spill which is is scheduled for February, Mike Williams said:

Some where close to zero I would think - for all intents and purposes he's dead in the water at the moment.

But it's not necessarily a mortal blow.

You can always come back, you can perform well from the back bench and there's no doubt he's a good performer in Parliament.

He also has a good electorate organisation , the people of New Lynn are very loyal and he's a hard working local MP.

But I think he's got to bide his time, he's only a young man.

He can certainly go back to his bunker and await his chance.

Is he more electable than Shearer? You just don't know.

Who would have thought in 1996 that the great discovery of the election campaign would have been Helen Clark?

A discovery for God's sake - she had been minister of health and housing in the Lange government, she'd been deputy leader of the labour party,, deputy Prime Minister and suddenly she was a discovery.

So you just don't know how people shine in campaigns or how they don't.

I don't think Shearer could have handled this any other way .

 He had to move and stamp his authority.

But demoting him is risky.

What they've got now is at least one MP who will be working towards a Labour defeat.