Diplomatically savvy North Korea ratchets tension further

COMMENT

The Korean peninsula remains on the boil this week with an uncharacteristic volume of rhetoric and dire warnings of imminent military attacks. All eyes are on the hermetic North Korea – which is exactly what Pyongyang wants.

Threats of attack, and even war-like actions, are par from North Korea. This year the violent rhetoric is terser as the regime further ratchets up the apprehension on the peninsula, but it could be short-lived.

Each year, the United States and South Korea conduct bilateral military exercises, always managing to rattle the political cages in the North.

The drills emphasise a US military commitment to South Korean defence. Last week’s trans-Pacific flight mission of two B-2 Spirit bombers, which briefly participated in the drills, indicate the strength and speed of the US military.

Washington and Seoul know to expect some howls of protest from Pyongyang during the annual drills, but something else lurks behind the latest threats, spooking many experts.

South Korea fronts brave face

South Korean President Park Geun-hye says she takes the North Korean threats “very seriously”. The new president added “there should be a strong response in initial combat without any political consideration if North Korea launches a provocation against the South”.

The South's defiant stance is the added reason the tension between the Koreas could potentially spill into all-out war. In the past, despite similar threats and even the sinking of a South Korean warship in 2010 by a North Korean submarine which killed 46 crew, it was Seoul which turned the other cheek and refused to retaliate.

Now, Ms Park is making it very clear they will not again absorb aggression from the North. A plan of pre-emptive attacks is reportedly being drawn in the event the North should mobilise for a strike.

Whatever happens in the next few weeks, it is hard to see a return to the warfare of the 1950s. The US and South Korea field some of the world’s most advanced military might.

The isolated northern regime, despite all its bluster about turning Seoul into a “sea of flames”, could only field vintage equipment in any conflict.

But, worryingly, North Korea publicly threatened to use its precious nuclear weapons arsenal against the “imperialist forces”. How many such weapons exist are estimated at perhaps four to, at most, 12.  

Mentioning these weapons at such a tense time is probably just bluster as their ability to deliver them to a target, and their functional reliability, is questionable.

US officials monitoring the situation suggest there is no sign yet of significant military mobilisation in the North. The Kaesong Industrial Park, a North-South joint venture facility just north of the demilitarized zone, remains only partially operational, as does the border crossing.

The crossing, and its operational status, is a good bellwether to determine interstate relations on the peninsula.

Diplomatic games from the North

As the torrent of threats intensifies, the North's young new leader, Kim Jong Un, may be backing himself into a corner. To maintain relevance and control over his ever-restive military generals, he may soon feel the need to follow through on some of them.

That said, such tensions are nothing out of the ordinary for the region. Every year the totalitarian regime issues well-timed threats, but stops short of conducting outright war. As usual, they are trying to convince the cancelled Six Party talks to resume and so they can receive much-needed aid packages.

The question seems to be about how the South Koreans will react if the North follows through on its threats. Pyongyang might create isolated incidents, as it has in the past, but fall short of a full attack.

Being the more rational of the two Koreas, Seoul will hopefully restrain itself in the event of such incidents, for fear of escalating isolated strikes into a larger conflict.

Things have been this tense many times in the past, and the North knows how to play the game effectively. In a few months it will probably have received the aid it needs and the talks it is “bargaining” for will be resumed and the tension will ease.

Ultimately, a diplomatically savvy North Korea appears in complete control by appearing insane and belligerent when it chooses to, and creating tension when it suits, making the rest of the world dance to its bizarre tune.

But the cycle of threats, followed by promises of aid, needs to be broken before it is too late. 

Nathan Smith has a Bachelor of Communications in Journalism from Massey University and has studied international relations and conflict