ELECTION 2011: what to watch for tonight

Election junkies are now sitting down in front of the TV with a remote in one hand and a glass – or, for the more spiritual bent, a set of worry beads – in the other.

If the polls are right John Key’s National Party is about to pull off a historic win. The main polling firms have put National around or above 50% for the bulk of the past three years, and the “wasted” vote –

Ah, but “if” is a very long word in politics.

Here’s the “ifs” to watch for tonight.

The biggest “if” is how much Labour’s vote collapses. Winston Peters’ New Zealand First Party is picking up support over the last week, and that support is not coming from National.

Secondly – and this is admittedly anecdotal – some more “soft” Labour vote could yet go elsewhere, probably to the Greens. An oft-heard sentiment over the past week from people who normally vote Labour is “well, Labour’s going nowhere, so I might go for xxxx” – with

A suggestion by this newspaper back in August that the Green Party could get as much as 15% was poob-poohed at the time: it doesn’t look so unlikely now.

Watch, also, for how much Colin Craig’s Conservative Party picks up. It is unlikely to get enough votes to be in Parliament, and given how much the wealthy Mr Craig has spent those votes will be the most expensive this election – but it could run surprisingly well.

The question is where those votes will come from. Some National, certainly – but some could also come from more socially conservative Labour voters.

That will boost the “wasted” vote, which is likely to help National this time. Even if National’s share of the vote drops below 50%, a high wasted vote would mean it could still have enough seats to govern alone.

Although the electorate battles are not, under MMP, as important as they were, they still count.

The ones which count most, of course, are the seats which give small parties a leg up into Parliament, and with Jim Anderton retiring in Wigram those seats are now more important to the political Right than the Left.

Epsom voters appeared ready to reject ACT – the most recent poll showed that while Labour and Green voters are donning respirators and voting for the National candidate, Paul Goldsmith, National voters were not prepared to hold their nose and vote for ACT’s John Banks.

It is possible there has been a late switch, but the 9% gap is a large one.

Peter Dunne’s long run in Ohariu looked ready to end earlier in the campaign: more recent evidence suggest he may hang on, although this is one man whose worry beads will get a big workout tonight.

Of the Maori seats, Hone Harawira’s high national profile should see him returned in Te Tai Tokurau, and Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia looks safe in Te Tai Tuauru. The other “safe” Maori seats are Ikaroa-Rawhiti, held by Labour front-bencher Parekura Horomia, and Hauraki-Waikato, held by Labour’s Nanaia Mahuta.

Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples and Labour MP Shane Jones are in an epic struggle for Tamaki Makaurau, and the outcome of this race will have a considerable bearing on the fortunes of both the Labour and Maori parties over the next Parliament.

The same goes for the close race in Waiariki, held by the Maori Party’s Te Uruoa Flavell. Mr Flavell is the most likely party leader after Mrs Turia and Mr Sharples – both near retirement – stand down, and should he lose the seat it would diminish the party’s post 2014 prospects even further.

There is also a bunch of seats which will not determine the government but which could determine the make up – not to mention the morale –of the opposition in the next Parliament.

Heading the list of these “second tier” seats is New Plymouth, held by National’s Jonathan Young by 105 votes on election night in 2008.

Mr Young’s political career has not exactly been a blaze of glory – or a blaze of anything else, if it comes to that – and he is opposed by a Labour star, former party president and head of the Council of Trade Unions Andrew Little.

Mr Little has been talked of as a future Labour leader but he will have to win New Plymouth to have a shot at the top job.

That looks like a pipe dream. National New Plymouth voters who were prepared to vote for Labour’s previous MP, Harry Duynhoven, are unlikely to do the same for a former union boss.

Another key issue is the prospects for the minerals industry, which is vital to the Taranaki region. National is about to give the sector the green light: a Labour led government – especially one dependent on the Greens - would shut down any future growth.

Other long-held Labour seats which look to be under pressure are Rimutaka, where Mr Key has held several visits – and Palmerston North. Both are held by young Labour MPs – Chris Hipkins and Iain Lees-Galloway respectively – who have been professional politicians since their student days. Both are understood to be struggling.