Foreign Affairs Scope: Russia entering second recession

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On August 10, the Russian government released figures showing a 4.6% economic contraction in the second quarter of 2015. The news follows reports of rising food prices in Russia – an average of 20% already in 2015 – indicating the country is firmly in the grips of the second recession of President Vladimir Putin’s rule.

The Kremlin is continuing to draw attention to and keep the eastern regions of Ukraine frozen in conflict by using a mix of negotiations for peace and an increase of indirect shelling by Russian-backed separatists of Ukrainian towns. Russia is also showing signs of prioritising its near abroad over other interests in Greece, Iran and Syria, leaving space for Western powers to advance their own goals in those regions.

Further to the south, Turkey this week has weathered a series of low-level militant attacks on its municipal and diplomatic institutions. Ankara, as part of a deal with the US over military basing rights, has been clamping down on Islamic State (IS) logistics and supply routes running through the country.

But a constellation of potentially serious militant threats faces Turkey. There is suggestion that the attack on the US consulate on the weekend was perpetrated by a Marxist group, while Kurdish militants continue to strike at law enforcement and political figures in the country. Turkey’s intelligence agencies should cope with these threats, though unrest is growing

A US Admiral John Richardson caused some collective eyebrow raising when he said China was a “a complex nation” doing some things that possessed an “adversarial nature.” The use of the description ‘adversary’ to describe China indicates a growing split between the two main power centres in the US government: the Pentagon and the State Department.

His remark may not have been timed to coincide with reports from China that a handful of key economic factors are still struggling to steady in the Asian giant. The yuan was purposely devalued by 1.9% this week, the Chinese stock market continues to fluctuate, China’s housing market bears signs of quicker decline and consumer spending by Chinese citizens still fails to impress.

China’s leaders are dealing with a tough economic transition while the US looks for opportunities to push back at perceived Chinese expansion.

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