Global finance giant HSBC has predicted low-carbon vehicles, led by electric vehicles, will be a bigger global market by 2020 than renewable energy.
This week's 'Sizing the climate economy' report predicts that 8.65m electric vehicles and 9.23m plug-in and hybrid electric vehicles will be sold globally in 2020, up from about 5,000 and 657,000 in 2009.
The total low-carbon transport market, including fuel-efficiency measures and switches to trains and buses, is expected to increase from $US113 million in 2009 to $US677 billion a year in 2020.
In the report’s most likely scenario, the global low-carbon energy market is expected to treble to about $US2.2 trillion by 2020.
This figure could be as low as $US1.5 trillion if governments back down on existing climate change commitments or as high as $2.7 trillion if current commitments are exceeded.
By region, the EU is expected to remain the largest market but will lose market share as China boosts clean tech investment
HSBC is putting its money where its mouth is when it comes to electric vehicles.
The bank contributed $US125m to a $US350m new equity financing deal with private electric vehicle company Better Place in January.
Nick Robins, lead report author, said growing confidence in the low-carbon vehicle sector would drive global low-carbon market growth.
He acknowledged that the economic crisis has hurt global ‘green’ investment, as have the US’ and Australia’s failures to deliver on key clean energy and climate change legislation.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance editor Angus McCrone told the Guardian that clean energy shares have underperformed the US stock market overall by 20% so far this year.
But he predicted that this year will be a record year for clean tech investment.
Back home in New Zealand
The latest Ministry of Economic Development energy outlook expects electric vehicles to be widely available in New Zealand 2020, particularly for light urban transport.
The outlook’s reference scenarios expect electric vehicles to make up between 25% and 50% of all new vehicles by 2040.
If charged at night, this uptake is not expected to cause a significant increase in wholesale electricity price.
Several city councils in New Zealand are considering electric vehicle trials.
Wellington City Council is expected to launch its Rugby World Cup electric vehicle initiative within the next two to three weeks – with 10 vehicles on the way over from Japan.
The trouble with EVs
Earlier this year, Reuters journalist Gerard Wynn analysed the comparative merits of electric vehicles, biofuels and more efficient use of conventional fuels.
His account highlights several of the major barriers that still need to be overcome within the low-carbon vehicle sector.
For electric vehicles, battery price and driving range remain technical hurdles, as does the multi-million dollar cost of new charging infrastructure.
Hybrid-vehicles are an answer to at least the question of range length.
On the positive side, electric vehicles, if charged at night, can be used to store electricity from grids that are increasingly reliant on intermittent wind energy.
Nina Fowler
Fri, 10 Sep 2010