Online prediction market iPredict will today launch new contracts asking whether or not there will be byelections in the Botany and Manurewa electorates before next year's general election.Trading will start at 1.30 pm today.The two new contracts will joi
Online prediction market iPredict will today launch new contracts asking whether or not there will be byelections in the Botany and Manurewa electorates before next year's general election.
Trading will start at 1.30 pm today.
The two new contracts will join the existing contract on whether or not there will be a byelection in Chris Carter’s Te Atatu electorate, which currently indicates a 23% probability that there will be.
Botany is the electorate of National MP Pansy Wong, who recently resigned as a minister after controversy over her travel expenses.
Manurewa MP George Hawkins from Labour has been elected to a local board in the new Auckland Council and has previously indicated he would stand down from Parliament if he did so.
NBR political reporter Rob Hosking has predicted that Winston Peters will stand in a Botany byelection.
And fellow NBR reporter Jock Anderson, who accurately predicted Labour’s poor performance in the Mana by-election, has reported former Prime Minister Helen Clark’s old Mt Albert electorate is also in National's sights.
Binary contracts pay $1 if the event described occurs and $0 if it does not.
The price at any given time indicates the market's view of the probability of the event occurring.
iPredict's binary contracts have a 90% success rate in accurately predicting future events. The company is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities Commission.
